Wednesday, April 4, 2012

2012 Preview Postscript - Predictions

     Yeah, I swore to myself I wasn't going to do this.  Oscar predictions in April are A.) Just ridiculous and B.) doomed to be mostly wrong.  Still true.  However, there is something freeing about making stabs in the dark without the weight of informed buzz from other sources flying around your head.  So, let's not call them predictions.  Let's call them an educated wish list and take it for what it is.  Things COULD go down like this:

Best Picture
1.  The Dark Knight Rises
2.  Les Miserables
3.  The Master
4.  Django Unchained
5.  Lincoln
6. The Great Gatsby
7. Zero Dark Thirty
8. The Paperboy
9. Brave
10. either Beasts of the Southern Wild or The Surrogate

11. whichever of the Sundance darlings doesn't snag #10
12. Prometheus (I would love to put it in the ten, but both it and The Dark Knight getting in seems unlikely)
13. Gravity (see Prometheus)
14. Life of Pi (if it works, it will probably make it...if)
15. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (I think this will get tech nods and part two might break in here)
16. Moonrise Kingdom (so tough for comedies, but Anderson's films are too smart not to get in sometime)
17. The Place Beyond the Pines (Action flick may widen Cianfrance's audience, but will that help here?)
18. Argo (will this be the one that does more for Affleck than almost making it?)
19. Silver Linings Playbook (I PREFER Russell's original work to the Fighter, but the Academy doesn't seem to agree)
20. Hunger Games (well reviewed and a huge box office hit, can't be ruled out)

Director:  pretty much just like above except that Nolan might well get left off for Dark Knight just because they like to leave him off, maybe in favor of Bigelow, to show us again that they don't REALLY hate women directors.

1.  Bill Murray - Hyde Park on Hudson
2. Daniel Day Lewis - Lincoln
3. Jamie Foxx - Django Unchained
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
5. John Hawkes - The Surrogate

6. Ryan Gosling - The Place Beyond the Pines (because he is Near Miss Boy)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Great Gatsby (ditto, plus he plays more against type in Django, making it seem more likely for Leo to show in supporting)
8. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables (may be overshadowed by showier supporting fare)
9. Christian Bale - The Dark Knight Rises (because sometimes they just get it right, no matter how unlikely)
10. Robert Pattinson - Cosmopolis (if he knocks it out of the park like Cronenberg is saying he will, how can they resist the exceeding expectations factor, but that's a big if)

1. Carey Mulligan - The Great Gatsby
2. Sandra Bullock - Gravity
3. Helen Hunt - The Surrogate
4. Viola Davis - Won't Back Down
5. Laura Linney - Hyde Park on Hudson

6. Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina (could easily replace one of the five)
7. Jennifer Lawrence - The Hunger Games (not Oscar-y, but so many raves)
8. Jennifer Lawrence - The Silver Linings Playbook (a more Oscar-y alternative)
9. Noomi Rapace - Prometheus (a lot of folks thought she was snubbed for Dragon Tattoo)
10. Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild (kids usually get supporting but she is sooo the lead)
11. Meryl Streep - Great Hope Springs (I would stop at ten, and surely they will give it a rest, but it is Streep)

Supporting Actor:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
2. Russell Crowe - Les Miserables
3. Joseph Gordon Levitt - Lincoln
4. Sasha Baron Cohen - Les Miserables
5. John Goodman - Argo

6. Jude Law - Anna Karenina (been a long time)
7. Guy Pearce - Lawless (with Weinstein behind it, there must be a nom somewhere they will push)
8. James Gandolfini - Cogan's Trade (like Goodman, it seems like his time)
9. Tobey McGuire - Great Gatsby (has chops, never been nominated, meaty supporting role)
10. Tom Hardy - Dark Knight Rises (or best looking Supporting Actor)

Supporting Actress:
1. Helena Bonham Carter - Great Expectations
2. Samantha Barks - Les Miserables 3. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
4. Kerry Washington - Django Unchained
5. Sally Field - Lincoln

6. Maggie Smith - Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Dench has already had some late in life Oscar lovin)
7. Helena Bonham Carter - Les Miserables (in the top five if Great Expectations fails to meet well... expectations)
8. Olivia Williams - Hyde Park on Hudson (because she's always fantastic)
9. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables (most people are predicting her over Barks, but Barks will have more screentime, and a more complex role, if they stay close to the theatrical production)
10. Anne Hathaway - Dark Knight Rises (can't wait to see her and Nolan's take on Catwoman)

Original Screenplay:
1. The Master
2. Django Unchained
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. The Surrogate
5. Moonrise Kingdom

6. Brave
7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
8. Seven Psychopaths
9. Gravity
10. The Place Beyond the Pines

Adapted Screenplay
1.  The Great Gatsby
2. The Paperboy
3. Les Miserables
4. Lincoln
5. Argo

6. The Dark Knight Rises (really should be in top five, but we all know that's gonna be an uphill proposition)
7. The Hobbit:  An Unexpected Journey (if it gets in for pic, there's a good chance, but I still think above the line noms will wait for the conclusion)
8.  Anna Karenina (see below)
9. Great Expectations (will have to be a special take on a story told this often)
10. The Silver Linings Playbook (Russell has never broken in here, but now that he's had a directing nod...?)

Animated Feature:
1. Brave
2. Frankenweenie
3. Secret World of Arriety
4. Paranorman
5. Hotel Transylvania

6. Rise of the Guardians (it has more buzz than a couple of my choices above, but the first one was just okay)
7. Dorothy of Oz (practically no buzz, but I have to think this has a shot)
8. Lorax (depends on the strength of the field)

1. Dark Knight Rises
2. Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3. Beasts of the Southern Wild
4. Les Miserables
5. Django Unchained

1. Dark Knight
2. Les Miserables
3. Master
4. Django Unchained
5. Zero Dark Thirty

Art Direction:
1. Les Miserables
2. Great Gatsby
3. Anna Karenina
4. Dark Knight Rises
5. Dark Shadows

Visual Effects:
1. Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2. Dark Knight Rises
3. Prometheus
4. Avengers
5. Dark Shadows

1. Great Gatsby
2. Anna Karenina
3. Great Expectations
4. Hobbit:  An Unexpected Journey
5. Dark Knight Rises

1. Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2. Dark Knight Rises
3. Great Expectations

Sound Editing:
1. Dark Knight Rises
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Brave
4. Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
5. Django Unchained

Sound Mixing:
1. Dark Knight Rises
2. Les Miserables
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
5. Django Unchained

Music (Score):
1. Dark Knight Rises
2. Brave
3. Lincoln
4. Master
5. Django Unchained

Music (Song):
  Always a big unknown at this point, but Brave, Hunger Games, Les Miserables, and Sparkle all seem like decent possibilities.  Won't Back Down also seems like the sort of film to have an inspirational original song play over the end credits, so we'll throw that in as well.

Documentary Feature
  Yeah, I know that the Doc branch always fails to shortlist half of the most obvious and/or most worthy contenders, but, what the hell?
1. The House I Live In
2. Bully
3. The Island President
4. Searching For Sugar Man
5. Detropia

I'm not even gonna try Foreign Film or shorts at this point in the game, I'd just be wasting your time (even moreso).  After Cannes we'll have a SLIGHTLY clearer picture, we'll play this game again then.

                                                                                                   Got them flicks like Jagger,

P.S.:  I would have anxiously included Only God Forgives and Inside Llewelyn Davis in many of the categories above and the "Hop of Faith" list from my previous post. However, they are both currently slated for release in early 2013.  IF that changes, they both will premiere impressively in my next set of predictions.

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