Wednesday, June 26, 2013

June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - Supporting Players

     Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress are much more difficult to call this far out than Actor and Actress because not only do you have to guess which films will bring the quality, but which performances will stand out among several star laden ensembles.  As always, the buzz leads, while my humble guesses (relatively humble, all things considered) follow thereafter...

Best Supporting Actress
  1. Amy Adams - American Hustle
  2. Cameron Diaz - The Counselor
  3. Margo Martindale - August: Osage County
  4. Cate Blanchet - The Monuments Men
  5. Ocatvia Spencer - Fruitvale Station

  6. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
  7. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler
  8. Catherine Keener - Captain Phillips
  9. Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis
  10. Vanessa Redgrave - Foxcatcher

     Of course, things are still wide open.  I could easily have named twice as many women who currently have buzz in this category.  Right now, I see things sorta like...

  1. Kristen Scott Thomas - Only God Forgives (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Refn squeezed 1 nod out of Drive and it would seem that this would be the nod that the Weinstein Company acquired "Forgives" to try and secure since she reportedly steals the show.  Besides, the Academy's been waiting for an excuse to invite her back ever since The English Patient.
  2. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler (0 wins out of 1 nomination in acting categories)...Honestly I was ready to predict her for Best Actress but it now looks more likely she will campaign here.  Weinstein again.
  3. Cameron Diaz - The Counselor (never nominated)...I'm kind of betting heavily on this film for several categories and after four Globe nominations, you'd think the Academy is just waiting for the right role here.
  4. Vanessa Redgrave - Foxcatcher (1 win out of 6 nominations)...This is just something that all movie fanboys want, 1 more win for an old lady crush who hasn't gotten much love in recent years.  All great actresses that live this long hit this point.  We saw it with Dench and Mirren.  We're seeing it now with Redgrave and Maggie Smith.  If this role is worthy of her, it could definitely manifest.
  5. Margo Martindale - August: Osage County (never nominated)...She's definitely got buzz going for her, and she's a SEASONED character actress...

  6. Juliette Lewis - August: Osage County (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...but this zany gal has never really gotten her due with The Academy and this could be her big comeback after several years laying low.
  7. Cate Blanchett - Monuments Men (1 win out of 5 nominations)...She's one of the most respected actresses in the business, playing the only female role in this magnificent boys' club piece of Oscar bait.  Still, I'm betting on her for Lead Actress in Blue Jasmine this year.
  8. Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station (1 win out of 1 nomination)...It's been seen and her reviews are complimentary, but she's still so fresh off her first nomination and win.
  9. Amy Adams - American Hustle (0 wins out of 4 nominations)...It's getting to where everyone just predicts Amy regardless but I think the Academy might wait a minute with the constant nods until she takes the role that they can give her a WIN for.
  10. Tilda Swinton - Snowpiercer (1 win out of 1 nomination)...I know science fiction films NEVER earn acting nods but she's absolutely AMAZING in the trailer, the Academy owes her a nod after We Need To Talk About Kevin, and it's June so I can put whatever the hell I like in the number ten slot!!!

     I also considered:  Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle (0/2), Julia Roberts (probably Lead) - August: Osage County (1/3), Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine (never nominated), Jane Fonda - The Butler (2/7), Catherine Keener - Captain Phillips (0/3), Penelope Cruz - The Counselor (1/3), Jennifer Garner - Dallas Buyer's Club (n/n), Scarlett Johannssen (n/n), Michelle Pfeiffer - The Family (0/3), Laura Linney - The Fifth Estate (0/3), Amy Adams - Her, Samantha Morten - Her (0/2), Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis (0/1),
Naomi Harris - Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom (n/n), June Squib - Nebraska (n/n), Zoe Saldana - Out of the Furnace (n/n), Jessica Lange - Therese (2/6) & Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave (n/n)

Best Supporting Actor
  1. Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
  2. Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
  3. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis
  4. Josh Brolin - Labor Day
  5. Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County

  6. Jeremy Renner - American Hustle
  7. Matt Damon - The Monuments Men
  8. Matthew McConaughey - The Wolf of Wall Street
  9. Colin Farrell - Saving Mr. Banks
  10. Joaquin Phoenix - The Immigrant
     First off, let me say that there are still more possibilities left in this category than I could list without getting encyclopedic, so I have tried to be really tough in whittling it down.  There are three gents in The Butler I would like to have mentioned, another trio in The Fifth Estate.  I would like to apologize to Mr. Renner, whose talent I truly hope leads to another Oscar nod (and maybe win) someday, but I'm not currently betting strongly on Hustle.  That said, I'm thinking...

  1. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis (NEVER NOMINATED!!!)...The film has premiered and Goodman is said to nearly steal the show from Oscar Isaac.  He is probably America's greatest living character actor to never be nominated.  Please, Academy, hear my plea...
  2. Bruce Dern - Nebraska (0 wins from 1 nomination)...Category confusion between here and Best Actor kept Mr. Dern off the buzz list but I'm betting this is where he lands.  With a Best Actor win from Cannes under his belt for the role, a nod here (for the first time since Coming Home in 1978) seems assured.
  3. Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Not only does Mr. Ruffalo have the most  buzz in this category, but he's in the lead by a mile.  The pundits have spoken, and unless Foxcatcher completely implodes, I think we can expect a second nomination to land in his lap easily.
  4. Ewan McGregor - August: Oslo County (never nominated)...I know that everyone is expecting Benedict Cumberbatch to get a nod from this film, but Ewan is waaaay more overdue and was snubbed last year for The Impossible.
  5. Benedict Cumberbatch - 12 Years a Slave (never nominated)...However, the pundits are pushing hard for Mr. Cumberbatch to break through, and this scenario could avoid vote splitting with Mr. McGregor.

  6. Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave (never nominated)...Of course, I'm betting on Fass for Lead Actor in The Counselor at the moment, but if that doesn't happen, I'd bet on this.
  7. Matthew McConaughey - The Wolf of Wall Street (never nominated)...Mr. McConaughey also seems primed for a first nod this year, but I am currently expecting him to get one in Lead (for Mud or Dallas Buyer's Club).
  8. Brad Pitt - The Counselor (0 wins out of 3 nominations)...Brad and Fass are appearing in two films together this year and it would be a lot of fun for them to both get nods from the same one!
  9. Dane DeHaan - Kill Your Darlings (never nominated)...You may not know who Mr. DeHaan is yet, but he's been building his reputation slowly with films like Lawless and The Place Beyond the Pines.  If he blew this away, who knows?
      I'm being a real wuss with narrowing things down this year, but for this slot I'm saying...
  10. Someone From The Monuments Men:
      Matt Damon (0 wins out of 2 nominations in acting categories)...This is, of course, the idea that everyone is jumping on.  Mr. Damon is just one of several talented actors in this ensemble, most of which are just as arguably overdue as he is...
      Bill Murray (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Mr. Murray is without a doubt the finest actor to ever come out of Saturday Night Live.  He infuses even the most serious roles with a sense of whimsy and even the most comedic with a touch of sadness, and yet no Oscar???
      John Goodman (never nominated)...Have I made my feelings clear on this one yet?
      Daniel Craig (never nominated)...and this seems inevitable as well...
      Jean Dujardin (1 win out of 1 nomination)...definitely the least overdue, but who knows?

     ...and then there was...Ben Foster - Ain't Them Bodies Saints (nn), Bradley Cooper - American Hustle (0/1), Robert De Niro - American Hustle (2/7), Jeremy Renner - American Hustle (0/1), Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County (nn), Alec Baldwin - Blue Jasmine (0/1), Javier Bardem - The Counselor (1/3), Jared Leto - Dallas Buyer's Club (nn),  Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher (nn), Tim Roth - Grace of Monaco (0/1), George Clooney - Gravity (1/4), Joaquin Phoenix - The Immigrant (0/3), Josh Brolin - Labor Day (0/1), Will Forte - Nebraska (nn), Woody Harrelson - Out of the Furnace (0/2), Colin Farrell - Saving Mr. Banks (nn), Brad Pitt - 12 Years a Slave (0/3), Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street (0/1)

     Expect a slight delay (and maybe a set of at home viewing reviews and a 2010 rewind set) before I finish these with Lead Acting and The Final Two.  I need a few days to update my buzz first.

  Related articles: What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?, June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Aural TechsThe Visual TechsThe Genre CategoriesThe ScreenplaysWe Need To Interrupt Miss Bala (We Need To Talk About Kevin review), "Impossible"y Well CraftedMudWater and Earth Make "Mud", Elena's Brave Law (Lawless review), A Price Beyond This Time (The Place Beyond the Pines review)

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