Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Dec Oscar Buzz and Predictions - Screenplays

Original Screenplay
     As always we'll start with the buzz...
  1.(1) The Master
  2.(5) Zero Dark Thirty
  3.(2) Moonrise Kingdom
  4.(3) Django Unchained
  5.(4) Amour

  6. Looper
  7. Flight
  8. Promised Land 
  9. Middle of Nowhere
  10.(6) Seven Psychopaths
  Leaving the Rankings:  Brave, Hyde Park On Hudson, Inside Llewyn Davis, Magic Mike
     It's becoming very clear who the top contenders are here.  I see my top three picks as locks with four...maybe five...films fighting it out for the remaining three slots.
  1. Django Unchained...With the screenplay win from the National Board of Review, Globe and Critics Choice nods, generally good notices, and Tarantino prestige, I have to think this is the surest contender and might be this film's best chance at a win.
  2. Moonrise Kingdom...Wes Anderson may have missed his nod at the Globes, but not at the Critic's Choice or Spirit awards and he feels overdue for some recognition.
  3. Zero Dark Thirty...Although this film definitely feels like a lock for a nomination (with Critic's Choice and Globe nods already under its belt), Mark Boal did just win for the Hurt Locker, so I'm not seeing a win here...yet.
  4. The Master...This film's chances with Oscar in general are hurting at the moment, but I still think it gets in here as it did at the Critic's Choice.
  5. Looper...Besides BEING one of the best screenplays of the year, this film is gaining momentum quickly, starting with a surprise nod from the Critic's Choice Awards.

  6. Amour...Pundits seem to love the idea that this film will break out of Foreign Language Film, and its acclaim IS high, but it doesn't have any major wins or nods for screenplay specifically, so we'll have to wait and see.
  7. Middle of Nowhere...If any film were to emerge as a top contender at the last second, it would be this one.
  8. Flight...Yeah, it got a Critic's Choice nom but enthusiasm for this film outside of the Best Actor race is waning.
  9. Promised Land...The Academy is very fond of Matt Damon and the lack of awards attention thus far COULD just be from lack of exposure.
  10. The Cabin in the Woods...This is probably wishful thinking on my part but this script has gotten some love from minor critic's groups and that is more than anyone was expecting.

Adapted Screenplay
     First, the buzz...
  1.(1) Lincoln
  2.(2) Argo
  3.(7) Silver Linings Playbook
  4.(3) Beasts of the Southern Wild
  5.(5) Life of Pi

  6.(6) Les Miserables
  7. The Sessions
  8.(4) Anna Karenina
  9. The Perks of Being a Wallflower
  10. Cloud Atlas
  Leaving the Rankings:  The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Quartet, On the Road
     I can't really argue with the buzz rankings too much here...
  1. Silver Linings Playbook...All of the top three films here are locks, and all three got nods at the Critic's Choice and Golden Globes.  Silver also got an Indie Spirit nod, which might mean nothing, except that in early WINS, Russell's screenplay took the National Board of Review and the D.C. Area Film Critics, which just edges out...
  2. Argo...which won Chris Terrio the Los Angeles Film Critics, which just edges out...
  3. Lincoln...which won Tony Kushner the screenplay award from the Boston Film Critics.  All three should have no difficulty securing nods and would seem at this point to be each other's only real competition for the win.  The other two slots?  Well...
  4. Life of Pi...David Magee got a Critic's Choice nod here, and the film is highly likely to get a Best Picture nod, so I'm going to say it's probably next, but far less secure.
  5. Beasts of the Southern Wild...Behn Zeitlen's brilliant screenplay has not been singled out exactly, but this young auteur has been winning almost every "Promising New Filmmaker" award that any critics group has flung around.  I still retain hope that the Academy will be more open to this film than the Globes and SAG (which might have shown more support if the film had not been eliminated from consideration before voting began).  Hence I'm giving it this last slot for now, but stiff competition remains in...

  6. The Perks of Being a Wallflower...Perks got an unexpected nod at the Critic's choice, and recognizing writer/director Stephen Chbosky (who also wrote the source novel) in this category could be a nice way of honoring a film that many feel has been given less attention that it deserved.
  7. Les Miserables...No major mentions for screenplay, but the film is sure to garner a host of nominations.  There is always the possibility that this will be one.
  8. The Sessions...This film was presumed to be a strong contender, but early critics group awards and major nominations have eluded Ben Llewyn thus far...
  9. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel...This movie seems to be popping up in all sorts of unexpected places lately, so who knows...
  10. Cloud Atlas...Well, we all know that this late in the season number ten is my personal For Your Consideration slot.

     I'm going to catch up on the buzz for a bit and then I'll be back to cover Supporting Actress/Actor.

Related Posts:  Nov/Dec Oscar Buzz and Predictions: It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing and Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Hairstyling and Make-up & Costume), Pretty Picture Techs (Production Design and Cinematography), Finishing Touch TechsToons of Any Length (Animated Short and Animated Feature), Docs of Any Length (Documentary Feature and Documentary Short), Can You "Master" Your Nature?Promarlius Kingdom (Moonrise Kingdom review), Twist Until You Are Loopey? (Looper review), I Think You "Argo"ing to Love It!Best That The Summer Wields? (Beasts of the Southern Wild review), The Cabin With the Goods,
Acting Master Classes in Private "Sessions"Cloudy Connections (Cloud Atlas review), Sept/Oct Oscar Buzz and Predictions - Screenplays

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