July Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Big Two

     The big two, of course, being picture and director.  As always, the first list is about the buzz.  The second list is whatever crap came out of my head...



Best Director

  1. George Clooney - The Monuments Men
  2. Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street
  3. Joel & Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis
  4. Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
  5. David O Russell - American Hustle

  6. Ridley Scott - The Counselor
  7. Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher
  8. Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips
  9. John Wells - August: Osage County
  10. Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave

   
     I can understand why all of these names made the list. If there's a long shot in the bunch, it is probably John Wells.  I'm expecting August: Osage County to be more of a showcase for the actors, maybe the script, but time will tell.  If I had to say what sets my list apart, I would note that I am predicting more of a breakthrough for the young buck auteurs in 2013.  I'm also more realistic about how easily the directors' branch of the AMPAS gets spacesick...


  1. Joel & Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis...I am not necessarily predicting the win here, just the most likely nominee. Out of the true veteran heavy hitters in this year's race (it seems odd to think of  the Indie Revolution harbingers as such, but it's been a long time since the early nineties), only the Coens have already debuted their film and received a consensus critical opinion that leans comfortably toward the positive.
  2. Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street...Sure, I usually give a strong edge in the early part of the year to the films that have already debuted, but I can't help myself.  Marty and Leo are always a powerful combination.  It seems unlikely that both Scorcese AND Clooney get left out.  After seeing the first trailer for "Wolf", my money's on Marty.
  3. Ryan Coogler - Fruitvale Station...At this point, this little indie effort might just WIN the top two categories.  Coogler is sure to top a host of best first director lists this year, and winning would give him the distinction of being the first African-American director to do so.  See, I made it all the way to number three before I invoked Harvey Weinstein's name to justify a predicted nominee's inclusion...invoke.
  4. Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave...And while we're at it, we might as well also go on record saying that 2013 will be the first year to award two black directors with nominations (you can't call Steve McQueen an African-American no matter HOW PC you are, he's from England).  True, McQueen's previous efforts (particularly Shame) were a little too much for the Academy's delicate, often fragile, sensibilities.  This film could easily follow in Shame's footsteps and elude recognition no matter how brilliant it is.  Slavery, however, is a topic that Oscar can stomach a good hard look at much more readily than sex addiction (to say nothing of Michael Fassbender's penis).  Django proved this to be true.  I'm hoping that this picture can follow in those footsteps.
  5. JC Chandor - All is Lost...I went back and forth on my fifth and sixth place predictions, but I finally decided to place this epic of one man lost at sea in the number five slot for two reasons.  First, it has already debuted and blown expectations out of the...well...you know.  Critical consensus is firmly on the film's side and star Robert Redford's Oscar comeback story is ready to write itself.  The second reason is that, as I stated, I think this will be a real breakout year for up and coming writer/directors.  Chandor's freshman effort, Margin Call, beat the odds to land him a screenplay nod.  Might this be the year that the other aspect of his amazing talent gets recognized?

  6. George Clooney - The Monuments Men...Of course its more than likely that Mr. Clooney will take one of my young lions down.  The Academy loves Mr. Clooney in a way that makes the women uncomfortable in their clothes and the men even more so.  After mostly ignoring his last effort, The Ides of March, it is almost unthinkable that they would let this film (which panders to their tastes in such a gratifyingly obvious way) go by without giving it multiple nods (with director/writer/star/producer George C up for at least a couple of them personally).  Still, it is not THAT far outside of the realm of probability that he gets Picture and Screenplay, but misses director and/or actor.
  7. Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher...Moneyball was the best movie that has ever been made about two topics as boring as math and baseball.  Imagine what Mr. Miller might do with an inherently interesting premise and an equally capable cast.
  8. Ridley Scott - The Counselor...I would have placed this film higher in the rankings if I had not been burned last year lobbying for Mr. Scott's underwhelmingly adequate Prometheus.  I'm sorry, but only time can heal these wounds...maybe just enough time for this thriller to open.
  9. David O Russell - American Hustle...Mr. Russell's recent track record with Oscar means you can't ignore his possible inclusion here, but every lucky streak breaks eventually, just ask Jason Reitman.
  10. Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity...I really wanted to put Elysium in this unlikely wild card slot, but Gravity does have far more buzz.

     But I considered...John Wells (August: Osage County), Richard Linklater (Before Midnight), Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine), Lee Daniels (The Butler), Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips, Neil Blomkamp - Elysium, Bill Condon - The Fifth Estate, Spike Jonze - Her, James Grey - The Immigrant, Jason Reitman - Labor Day, Anton Corbjin - A Most Wanted Man, Alexander Payne - Nebraska, Spike Lee - Oldboy, Scott Cooper - Out of the Furnace, Asghar Farhadi - The Past, Stephen - Philomena, Ron Howard - Rush, John Lee Hancock - Saving Mr. Banks, Susanne Biers - Serena, Jean-Pierre Jeunet - The Young and Prodigious Spivet




Best Picture

  1. The Monuments Men
  2. Inside Llewyn Davis
  3. The Wolf of Wall Street
  4. August: Osage County
  5. Captain Phillips
  6. Fruitvale Station
  7. Nebraska
  8. Foxcatcher
  9. Before Midnight
  10. The Counselor

  11. Gravity
  12. Saving Mr. Banks
  13. American Hustle
  14. 12 Years a Slave
  15. Labor Day
  16. The Butler
  17. The Great Gatsby
  18. Out of the Furnace
  19. All is Lost
  20. Rush


     So far, the year has seen the debut of three films that I'm betting make the Best Picture race, and you can find them at slots one through three on my prediction list below.  Film festival crowds have also been treated to a couple of feasible maybes (six and fifteen on my list) and one dark horse wild card that's made enough of an impact to humor (number nineteen). The other fourteen films I am championing purely on speculation, some more speculative than others.

  1. Inside Llewyn Davis...Coens + Cannes acclaim + Oscar friendly release date > or = Best Picture nominee.
  2. Fruitvale Station...Sundance AND Cannes acclaim + The Weinstein Co. + critical embrace > or = Best Picture nominee.
  3. Before Midnight...Conclusion to a beloved trilogy never honored under old five nominee system + best film in the series + best reviewed narrative film in English of the year = Best Picture nominee.
  4. The Wolf of Wall Street....After all that simple math the remaining speculation seems a little scarier. Of course, Martin Scorsese reunited with frequent 21st century muse DiCaprio is usually a PRETTY sure bet, at least better than most, so I can face my fears on a big limb before I go out on some that are decidedly flimsier.
  5. 12 Years a Slave...With only two previous films under his belt, Steve McQueen is already proving himself a thoughtful director of consistently impressive quality.  His third film sounds far more baity and far less off-putting than Shame.  For now, my money is on McQueen getting bumped up to the next level when the year is said and done.
  6. All is Lost...As already noted, this film has screened to rave reviews and surpassed the expectations of almost everyone who has seen it. In it Robert Redford give a performance that has placed him at the head of this year's Best Actor race securely enough to generate other nominations.
  7. The Monuments Men...I held out as long as I could before getting to the film that seems genetically engineered for the Academy Awards due to a sneaking suspicion that the "bait" factor here could prove to be overkill.
  8. Foxcatcher...There is now some doubt whether this film will actually be released or get held over to 2014.  IF it comes out this year, I'm expecting greatness...largely a hunch.
  9. The Counselor...Ridley Scott failed to deliver last year, and it has made me gun shy regardless of how potentially great the premise of this film sounds.  Of course, the same knee jerk reaction kept me from being too enthusiastic about Lincoln last year, and we know how that turned out.
  10. Blue Jasmine...Yeah, I know, Woody JUST had a big comeback two years ago, but early word on this one is encouraging and Cate Blanchett looks positively brilliant in the trailer.

  11. Gravity...Yeah, I expect it to be great too, but any film set in space has one mark against it from the get go.
  12. American Hustle...While director David O Russell's film's have had a flawless track record in recent years, that is a double edged sword.  While the AMPAS is sure to take the film seriously, they may also feel that the director has already gotten his due of late.  He's almost got to top Silver Linings Playbook to even get in the game.
  13. August: Osage County...I find the cast of this piece as rife with tasty possibilities as the next guy, but I'm still not sold that it will break out of the acting categories.
  14. Captain Phillips...Action flicks are another genre with something of an uphill battle to wage when it comes to getting awards recognition.  Still, director Greengrass has done it before.
  15. Nebraska...For an Alexander Payne film, Nebraska's response at Cannes was...tepid.  It could still happen, but Payne's track record is about due for a blip, and so far it leaves many cold.
  16. Labor Day...Jason Reitman fell out of the Academy's favor a bit with his last effort, Young Adult. His possible comeback? The dramedy king goes all drama.  It could be the revitalizing change of direction that he needs, or it could be just another action thriller.
  17. Elysium...Even though no one else seems to be taking this film's above the line prospects very seriously at this point, I am STILL so stoked about the way that District 9 transcended the science fiction genre that I will not count director Neil Blomkamp out.
  18, Philomena...Weinstein seemed awfully eager to pick up this up. His sights COULD be set for a campaign beyond Best Actress.
  19. Stories We Tell...Every year or two, some rather unique documentary comes along that people theorize could finally be the first to land a best picture nomination.  If anything did this year, it would be this one from director Sarah Polley, which has received nearly universal praise.
  20. The Young and Prodigious Spivet...Again, Weinstein jumped at distribution and its not like director Jean-Pierre Jeunet has never been courted by Oscar before (Amelie).

     And that does it for this round of Oscar predix.  We'll probably get around to more around September.
                                                                                   Froggy

  Related articles: What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?, June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Aural Techs, The Visual Techs, The Genre Categories, The Screenplays, Supporting Players, Actor and Actress; Innkeepers of Blood and Shame (Shame review), Arantino Explained (The T is Invisible) (Django Unchained review), Promarlius Kingdom (Prometheus review), Dark Clouds Beautify "Silver Linings", Another Young Project (Young Adult review)

Ju...ly Oscar Buzz and Predictions - Actor and Actress

     In the interest of trying to finish these close to June, let's hop right to it. As always the buzz is more immediately obvious and I make you wait just a moment longer...

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
  2. Bruce Dern - Nebraska
  3. Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyer's Club
  4. Robert Redford - All is Lost
  5. Michael B Jordan - Fruitvale Station

  6. Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
  7. Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
  8. Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher
  9. Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
  10. Michael Fassbender - The Counselor

     The buzz seems reasonable here, and I see no reason not to believe that most or all of the gentlemen listed above will deliver noteworthy turns.  I do think that Bruce Dern is probably going to wind up being campaigned in Supporting.  Other than that, my predictions differ mostly in that I tend to give the edge to performances that have already screened and proven to live up to the hype.  With that in mind...

  1. Robert Redford - All is Lost (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...I am a LITTLE self-satisfied that I predicted this a few months back in my first guesses BEFORE anyone saw the film at Cannes.  Since then everyone else has jumped on board with me.  Hopefully we won't capsize.
  2. Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis (never nominated)...Word out of Cannes was very strong for this latest Coen production and its star.  Of course, we won't really know until the film debuts to a wider audience, but for now it seems like a strong bet.
  3. Michael B Jordan - Fruitvale Station (never nominated)...This film (and its young star) received raves out of both Sundance and Cannes earlier this year.  The obstacle here will be getting enough people to see the film but modest box office didn't stop Quvenzhane Wallis last year, so it might not matter.  Oh, yeah, the Weinstein Company is handling distribution.
  4. Matthew McConaughey - Mud (never nominated)..It would seem to be Mr. McConaughey's year.  I know everyone else is predicting that he gets in for Dallas Buyer's Club, but we don't REALLY know how that will turn out just yet.  We DO know that Mud was his greatest performance to date, so until that is no longer true, I'm sticking to my guns.
  5. Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher (never nominated)...I love it when famous funny men prove they have dramatic range as well, and so does the Academy.  Bennett Miller directed Jonah Hill to a nod in a role that possessed far less furniture chewing potential, so...

  6. Michael Fassbender - The Counselor (never nominated)...This film is a potentially fantastic question mark at the moment, but after being left out at the 84th Oscars because his equipment was flopping  all around the screen while he out acted all of that year's eventual nominees, the Academy should be looking for an excuse to recognize Fassbender's talent.
  7. Ethan Hawke - Before Midnight (0 wins out of 1 nomination in acting categories)...Something from the first half of the year almost always emerges as a true awards player and the third film in the Before series would seem to be the early bird most likely to succeed at this point in the game.  A previous nod for Training Day demonstrates that the Academy respects Mr. Hawke. If the film scores in Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Actress, he could be swept along with the current.
  8. Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave (never nominated)...Steve McQueen is a strikingly gifted director whose films thus far have featured actors in roles that took them down to very deep and difficult places.  If the never previously nominated actor rises to the challenge, he could be a real threat.  However, he'll have to avoid being upstaged by both McQueen muse Fassbender and Brad Pitt.
  9. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street (0 wins out of 3 nominations)...I LOVE Leo, and he is undeniably one of the most overdue actors out there but I'm SOOOO tired of predicting his nomination every year and being wrong.  See, this is the thing.  Leo CAN get another nomination, and a win, and he will in time. But Leo has to be twice as good to get praise from the Academy as anyone else because he once acted like a brat when he didn't get a nod for playing a role in which he was pleasant, but vastly under challenged. Of course, this was back when he was barely out of his teens.  Now that he's nearing forty, I'd like to ask the Academy: Who's REALLY being the brat?
  10. Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips...Once the AMPAS's favorite son and poster boy, it has been quite some time since Mr. Hanks REALLY threw his hat in the ring.  A lot of pundits believe that this will be the year that he receives a long awaited sixth nomination.  I think he's gearing up, but I could be wrong.  If it DOES happen this year, I prefer to believe it will be for this film, rather that the as yet sap-unseen Saving Mr. Banks.
 
  I also wouldn't be shocked by:  Casey Affleck - Ain't Them Bodies Saints (0/1), Christian Bale - American Hustle (1/1), Forest Whitaker - The Butler or Untitled Lee Daniels Project (1/1), Benedict Cumberbatch - The Fifth Estate (nn), Michael Shannon - The Iceman (nn), Josh Brolin - Labour Day (0/1), Mark Wahlberg - Lone Survivor (0/1), Idris Elba - Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom, Christian Bale - Out of the Furnace (1/1), Hugh Jackman - Prisoners (0/1), Colin Firth - The Railway Man (0/2), Daniel Bruhl - Rush (nn), Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks (2/5), Ben Stiller - The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (nn), Christoph Waltz - The Zero Theorem (2/2)



Best Actress
  1. Meryl Streep - August: Osage County
  2. Nicole Kidman - Grace of Monaco
  3. Naomi Watts - Diana
  4. Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks
  5. Kate Winslet - Labor Day

  6. Sandra Bullock - Gravity
  7. Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant
  8. Julie Delpy - Before Midnight
  9. Berenice Bejo - The Past
  10. Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine

     Many a year reaches the half-way point and the biggest challenge in predicting this category is coming up with ten ladies to single out as true real contenders.  Traditionally, more films are led by men with more women playing supporting roles.  This year, however, we actually have a pretty wide field of actresses to choose from.  I could see ANY of the women above winding up with a nomination, but they're not exactly my top ten...

  1. Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine (1 win out of 5 nominations)...No one can claim that the Academy has failed to honor Cate Blanchett, but no one can claim that she hasn't earned and deserved every bit of it.  She looks amazing in the trailer, like her performance IS the film. I could say we all know what Allen is capable of doing when working with a female talent of this caliber if Blanchett wasn't practically in a caliber all her own.
  2. Julie Delpy - Before Midnight (never nominated in acting categories)...I've gone on record with the fact that I expect this film to be the one big above the line player released in the first half of 2013, and this is probably the second most likely nod for it to snag.  Mrs. Delpy's performance has been universally praised as one of the strongest elements.
  3. Meryl Streep - August: Osage County (3 wins out of 17 nominations)  Whatever the AMPAS thinks of DiCaprio that makes them so hesitant to honor him, the opposite must be true of Meryl Streep.  Like Woody Allen, she almost has to be attached to a BAD film to get left out (or request that no one vote for her).  No reason to believe that this Weinstein backed production will fall into that category as of yet, so here she is.
  4. Judi Dench - Philomena (1 win out of 6 nominations)...Speaking of Harvey and Company, they recently picked up this film for distribution at Cannes.  If the move was made as an 86th Oscar play (and with the Weinsteins, it is likely), Best Actress seems like a reasonable primary target.  While the company already had three strong contenders for nomination (Streep, Kidman & Roberts), a second Oscar for aging British matron Dench seems like their strongest play for a win.
  5. Jessica Chastain - The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (0 wins out of 2 nominations)...Both in terms of Academy appeal and ability to deliver, Ms. Chastain shows signs of becoming the Meryl of a new generation.  She's made a believer out of me, demonstrating more range in two short years than most actresses manage in a whole career.  If I have to lay odds for performances I haven't seen (and, well, I kinda do), she seems like a safer bet than most.

  6. Berenice Bejo - The Past (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Circumstance may well keep The Past from being submitted to the Foreign Language Film race at all, but there's no way that it will fail to register on 2013's awards radar.  Original Screenplay and Actress seem like the categories in which it could most easily compete with English language productions. DuJardin may have won the statue for The Artist, but the world fell in love with Ms. Bejo.
  7. Sandra Bullock - Gravity (1 win out of 1 nomination)...Ms. Bullock is certainly well loved and likable, and it has made her one of the most successful and bankable romantic comedy stars ever.  Now over forty, she is working very hard to expand her range as an actress before she gets relegated to playing rom-com moms.  Her Oscar for the Blind Side came not so much because her performance blew everyone else out of the water (the script was far too saccharine and formulaic to allow for that),  but because it broadened the range of what we had seen her do significantly.  She beat out several younger, more "prestige" actresses for Gravity, and I'm sure that director Cuaron did not take the decision of casting this (practically) one woman show lightly.  The only thing standing in her way is the little problem of the film's subject matter.  The last Best Actress nominee in space was Sigourney Weaver for Aliens waaaay back in 1986.
  8. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County (1 win out of 3 nominations)...It's not that I don't think Ms. Roberts stands a very good chance of being fantastic in this film.  I have reservations about her chances of recognition in this category because of splits.  She and Streep will split the votes of those who wish to honor the film in this category. She, Streep, Dench, and Kidman will split the campaigning efforts of the Weinstein Company.  Of course, it she actually shows us something new and surprising, none of that will matter.
  9. Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks (1 win out 4 nominations)...I recently saw Beautiful Creatures and was reminded of just how great an actress Emma Thompson can be when she's given something to do besides be primly British.  I want to be wrong about how many empty calories this film will contain, but if wishes were fishes we'd all have a feast.
     I'm so lame. I'm declaring number ten a tie.  Again...
  10. Nicole Kidman - Grace of Monaco (1 win out of 3 nominations)
     and
  11. Naomi Watts - Diana (0 wins out of 2 nominations)
     It seems appropriate to pair these ladies, and not just because they are "besties".  They are also both appearing in self-titled biopics about iconic women.  This particular sub-genre of cinema has a bad reputation for good reason.  Quite often such movies exist strictly to serve as Oscar Bait vehicles which exploit the shortage of leading roles available to women to attract stars regardless of how little effort has been put into the script.  Yes, you occasionally get The Queen, but more often you get The Iron Lady.  I would love for one of these two pictures to buck the trend, and both ladies may receive nominations even if my hunch is right on the money.  For now, I'm going to choose to believe that this year's bumper crop of notable women characters is evidence that the day of My Week With Marilyn has passed...and keep my finger's crossed.

  What bumper crop, you say?  Behold this feast...Rooney Mara - Ain't Them Bodies Saints (0/1), Chloe Grace Moretz - Carrie (never nominated), Cate Blanchett - Carol (1/5), Annette Benning - The Face of Love, Greta Gerwig - Frances Ha (never nominated), Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant (1/1), Felicity Jones - The Invisible Woman, Kate Winslet - Labor Day (1/6), Jennifer Lawrence - Serena (1/2), Shailene Woodley - The Spectacular Now (never nominated), Audrey Tatou - Therese Desqueyroux


     With that, we are left with Picture and Director.  I shall try to return posthaste.


  Related articles:  What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?, June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Aural Techs, The Visual Techs, The Genre Categories, The Screenplays, Supporting Players,  Innkeepers of Blood and Shame (Shame review), Water and Earth Make "Mud", 

June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - Supporting Players

     Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress are much more difficult to call this far out than Actor and Actress because not only do you have to guess which films will bring the quality, but which performances will stand out among several star laden ensembles.  As always, the buzz leads, while my humble guesses (relatively humble, all things considered) follow thereafter...

Best Supporting Actress
  1. Amy Adams - American Hustle
  2. Cameron Diaz - The Counselor
  3. Margo Martindale - August: Osage County
  4. Cate Blanchet - The Monuments Men
  5. Ocatvia Spencer - Fruitvale Station

  6. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
  7. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler
  8. Catherine Keener - Captain Phillips
  9. Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis
  10. Vanessa Redgrave - Foxcatcher

     Of course, things are still wide open.  I could easily have named twice as many women who currently have buzz in this category.  Right now, I see things sorta like...

  1. Kristen Scott Thomas - Only God Forgives (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Refn squeezed 1 nod out of Drive and it would seem that this would be the nod that the Weinstein Company acquired "Forgives" to try and secure since she reportedly steals the show.  Besides, the Academy's been waiting for an excuse to invite her back ever since The English Patient.
  2. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler (0 wins out of 1 nomination in acting categories)...Honestly I was ready to predict her for Best Actress but it now looks more likely she will campaign here.  Weinstein again.
  3. Cameron Diaz - The Counselor (never nominated)...I'm kind of betting heavily on this film for several categories and after four Globe nominations, you'd think the Academy is just waiting for the right role here.
  4. Vanessa Redgrave - Foxcatcher (1 win out of 6 nominations)...This is just something that all movie fanboys want, 1 more win for an old lady crush who hasn't gotten much love in recent years.  All great actresses that live this long hit this point.  We saw it with Dench and Mirren.  We're seeing it now with Redgrave and Maggie Smith.  If this role is worthy of her, it could definitely manifest.
  5. Margo Martindale - August: Osage County (never nominated)...She's definitely got buzz going for her, and she's a SEASONED character actress...

  6. Juliette Lewis - August: Osage County (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...but this zany gal has never really gotten her due with The Academy and this could be her big comeback after several years laying low.
  7. Cate Blanchett - Monuments Men (1 win out of 5 nominations)...She's one of the most respected actresses in the business, playing the only female role in this magnificent boys' club piece of Oscar bait.  Still, I'm betting on her for Lead Actress in Blue Jasmine this year.
  8. Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station (1 win out of 1 nomination)...It's been seen and her reviews are complimentary, but she's still so fresh off her first nomination and win.
  9. Amy Adams - American Hustle (0 wins out of 4 nominations)...It's getting to where everyone just predicts Amy regardless but I think the Academy might wait a minute with the constant nods until she takes the role that they can give her a WIN for.
  10. Tilda Swinton - Snowpiercer (1 win out of 1 nomination)...I know science fiction films NEVER earn acting nods but she's absolutely AMAZING in the trailer, the Academy owes her a nod after We Need To Talk About Kevin, and it's June so I can put whatever the hell I like in the number ten slot!!!

     I also considered:  Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle (0/2), Julia Roberts (probably Lead) - August: Osage County (1/3), Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine (never nominated), Jane Fonda - The Butler (2/7), Catherine Keener - Captain Phillips (0/3), Penelope Cruz - The Counselor (1/3), Jennifer Garner - Dallas Buyer's Club (n/n), Scarlett Johannssen (n/n), Michelle Pfeiffer - The Family (0/3), Laura Linney - The Fifth Estate (0/3), Amy Adams - Her, Samantha Morten - Her (0/2), Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis (0/1),
Naomi Harris - Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom (n/n), June Squib - Nebraska (n/n), Zoe Saldana - Out of the Furnace (n/n), Jessica Lange - Therese (2/6) & Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave (n/n)


Best Supporting Actor
  1. Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
  2. Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
  3. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis
  4. Josh Brolin - Labor Day
  5. Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County

  6. Jeremy Renner - American Hustle
  7. Matt Damon - The Monuments Men
  8. Matthew McConaughey - The Wolf of Wall Street
  9. Colin Farrell - Saving Mr. Banks
  10. Joaquin Phoenix - The Immigrant
   
     First off, let me say that there are still more possibilities left in this category than I could list without getting encyclopedic, so I have tried to be really tough in whittling it down.  There are three gents in The Butler I would like to have mentioned, another trio in The Fifth Estate.  I would like to apologize to Mr. Renner, whose talent I truly hope leads to another Oscar nod (and maybe win) someday, but I'm not currently betting strongly on Hustle.  That said, I'm thinking...

  1. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis (NEVER NOMINATED!!!)...The film has premiered and Goodman is said to nearly steal the show from Oscar Isaac.  He is probably America's greatest living character actor to never be nominated.  Please, Academy, hear my plea...
  2. Bruce Dern - Nebraska (0 wins from 1 nomination)...Category confusion between here and Best Actor kept Mr. Dern off the buzz list but I'm betting this is where he lands.  With a Best Actor win from Cannes under his belt for the role, a nod here (for the first time since Coming Home in 1978) seems assured.
  3. Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Not only does Mr. Ruffalo have the most  buzz in this category, but he's in the lead by a mile.  The pundits have spoken, and unless Foxcatcher completely implodes, I think we can expect a second nomination to land in his lap easily.
  4. Ewan McGregor - August: Oslo County (never nominated)...I know that everyone is expecting Benedict Cumberbatch to get a nod from this film, but Ewan is waaaay more overdue and was snubbed last year for The Impossible.
  5. Benedict Cumberbatch - 12 Years a Slave (never nominated)...However, the pundits are pushing hard for Mr. Cumberbatch to break through, and this scenario could avoid vote splitting with Mr. McGregor.

  6. Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave (never nominated)...Of course, I'm betting on Fass for Lead Actor in The Counselor at the moment, but if that doesn't happen, I'd bet on this.
  7. Matthew McConaughey - The Wolf of Wall Street (never nominated)...Mr. McConaughey also seems primed for a first nod this year, but I am currently expecting him to get one in Lead (for Mud or Dallas Buyer's Club).
  8. Brad Pitt - The Counselor (0 wins out of 3 nominations)...Brad and Fass are appearing in two films together this year and it would be a lot of fun for them to both get nods from the same one!
  9. Dane DeHaan - Kill Your Darlings (never nominated)...You may not know who Mr. DeHaan is yet, but he's been building his reputation slowly with films like Lawless and The Place Beyond the Pines.  If he blew this away, who knows?
      I'm being a real wuss with narrowing things down this year, but for this slot I'm saying...
  10. Someone From The Monuments Men:
      Matt Damon (0 wins out of 2 nominations in acting categories)...This is, of course, the idea that everyone is jumping on.  Mr. Damon is just one of several talented actors in this ensemble, most of which are just as arguably overdue as he is...
      Bill Murray (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Mr. Murray is without a doubt the finest actor to ever come out of Saturday Night Live.  He infuses even the most serious roles with a sense of whimsy and even the most comedic with a touch of sadness, and yet no Oscar???
      John Goodman (never nominated)...Have I made my feelings clear on this one yet?
      Daniel Craig (never nominated)...and this seems inevitable as well...
      Jean Dujardin (1 win out of 1 nomination)...definitely the least overdue, but who knows?

     ...and then there was...Ben Foster - Ain't Them Bodies Saints (nn), Bradley Cooper - American Hustle (0/1), Robert De Niro - American Hustle (2/7), Jeremy Renner - American Hustle (0/1), Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County (nn), Alec Baldwin - Blue Jasmine (0/1), Javier Bardem - The Counselor (1/3), Jared Leto - Dallas Buyer's Club (nn),  Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher (nn), Tim Roth - Grace of Monaco (0/1), George Clooney - Gravity (1/4), Joaquin Phoenix - The Immigrant (0/3), Josh Brolin - Labor Day (0/1), Will Forte - Nebraska (nn), Woody Harrelson - Out of the Furnace (0/2), Colin Farrell - Saving Mr. Banks (nn), Brad Pitt - 12 Years a Slave (0/3), Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street (0/1)

     Expect a slight delay (and maybe a set of at home viewing reviews and a 2010 rewind set) before I finish these with Lead Acting and The Final Two.  I need a few days to update my buzz first.

  Related articles: What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?, June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Aural Techs, The Visual Techs, The Genre Categories, The Screenplays; We Need To Interrupt Miss Bala (We Need To Talk About Kevin review), "Impossible"y Well Crafted, Mud: Water and Earth Make "Mud", Elena's Brave Law (Lawless review), A Price Beyond This Time (The Place Beyond the Pines review)

June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - Screenplays

     The case with the screenplay categories is usually an embarrassment of riches on the Adapted side and a few shoo-ins among the Originals with the remaining slots left for that year's up-and-coming auteurs.  This year there are more heavy hitting arguably overdue writers working in Original, which promises to be an interesting novelty if nothing else. As always, the buzz leads each category with my thoughts and predictions following after.

Adapted Screenplay
  1. Before Midnight
  2. The Monuments Men
  3. August: Oslo County
  4. The Wolf of Wall Street
  5. The Butler

  6. Foxcatcher
  7. Labor Day
  8. 12 Years a Slave
  9. Captain Phillips
  10. The Great Gatsby

     It seems odd to me that Before Midnight lands in Adapted just because it is a sequel, but that's how the rules work at present.  I would like to post the disclaimer that I expect August: Osage County to be one of those ensembly Picture nominees with no Screenplay nod (think: The Help).  Tracy Letts showed talent with Killer Joe, but it was no masterpiece of a script.  There are relatively few Oscar veterans in serious contention in this category, but I still think experience counts...

  1. Before Midnight - Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...This film has been celebrated even more exuberantly than the previous installment that earned this trio a nomination - seems like a gimme.
  2. Foxcater - E Max Frye (never nominated) & Dan Futterman (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...If this film works at all it will rely heavily on a strong screenplay.  Futterman was previously nominated for Capote.
  3. The Wolf of Wall Street - Terrence Winter (never nominated)...Mr. Winter may have never been nominated for an Oscar, but he's worked on some of the most cinematic television shows imaginable (The Sopranos, Boardwalk Empire) and Scorsese would never have signed on for a screenplay that didn't have the goods.
  4. Monument's Men - George Clooney & Grant Heslov (0 wins out of 2 nominations in writing categories)  Third time COULD be the charm for this pair whose film sounds almost TOO Oscar baity.  Still....
  5. 12 Years a Slave - John Ridley (never nominated)...Yes, Mr. Ridley's most impressive previous cred by a mile is Three Kings, but that WAS a very good screenplay and I can't imagine that Steve McQueen is going to follow up Shame with (pardon the expression) some crap.

  6. Labor Day - Jason Reitman (0 wins out of 1 nomination in writing categories)...Reitman is a very talented auteur, but Young Adult proved that he can wax too dark for the Academy's tastes and this is his first effort without comedic elements.  We will have to wait and see.
  7. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom - William Nicholson (0 wins out of 2 nominations)  Arguably one of the most overdue names on this list, Mr. Nicholson was previously nominated for Gladiator and Shadowlands.  He is also backed by the Weinstein Company.
  8. The Young and Prodigious T.S. Spivet - Jean-Pierre Jeunt & Guillaume Laurant (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...The writing pair that brought you Amelie, working in English, backed by the Weinstein Company...nuff said.
  9. The Butler - Lee Daniels & Danny Strong (never nominated in writing categories)...The Paperboy is not exactly the most convincing former writing credit (remember Daniels only DIRECTED Precious), but Harvey Weinstein is pushing this as a Best Picture nominee.  Still, could be another victim of The Help syndrome.
  10. Snowpiercer - Joon-ho Bong & Kelly Masterson (never nominated)...Yes, it's science fiction, that's why I put it last.  Still, the writers separately penned Madeo (or Mother, which surely would have been nominated if it was in English) and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead so I have very high hopes.

     Also in the mix:  August: Osage County (Tracy Letts, never nominated), Captain Phillips (Billy Ray, nn), The Fifth Estate (Josh Singer, nn), A Most Wanted Man (Andrew Bovell, nn), Much Ado About Nothing (Joss Whedon, 0/1), Oldboy (Mark Protosevich, nn), Philomena (Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope, nn) & The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter & Michael H Webber, nn)


Original Screenplay
  1. The Counselor
  2. Inside Llewyn Davis
  3. Fruitvale Station
  4. Gravity
  5. Nebraska

  6. American Hustle
  7. The Past
  8. Captain Phillips
  9. Blue Jasmine
  10. The Immigrant

     This category is PACKED this year, with some very celebrated screen writers in contention.  I wouldn't count out ANY of the buzzed about films listed above, but I DO have a few films I feel strongly about that didn't make it.  MY list looks more like this...

  1. Inside Llewyn Davis - The Coen Brothers (2 wins out of 5 nominations in writing categories)...I'm not saying they'll win (previous wins for No Country and Fargo sort of make the notion of being overdue silly), but with raves out of Cannes, a nomination seems all but assured.  There are three names that should never be underestimated in the Oscar world.  Pixar, Weinstein...and Coen.
  2. Fruitvale Station - Ryan Coogler (never nominated)...It may seem odd to place a rookie at number two with so many experienced sharks in the water, but the film has been seen, was well received, and has Weinstein pushing it hard.
  3. Blue Jasmine - Woody Allen (3 wins out of 15 nominations in writing categories)...I would add Allen to the list of names to never bet against except that in a career as prolific as his you have to have a lot of misses to only score (ONLY?) fifteen nominations in over forty years of film making.  Early buzz indicates this is not one of them.  I wouldn't vote against it.
  4. The Counselor - Cormac McCarthy (never nominated)...It may be Mr. McCarthy's first script, but he IS one of the most celebrated novelists of the twenty first century, whose work has often adapted beautifully to screen.
  5.  All Is Lost - JC Chandor (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...I had a really difficult time picking between number five and number six here, but this film has already been seen to strong reviews and Chandor is one for one ( with Margin Call) with the Academy.  Robert Redford's performance ensures that even the most curmudgeonly Academy members will watch their screeners and have the movie in mind.

  6. American Hustle - David O Russell (0 wins out of 1 nomination) & Eric Singer (never nominated)...That being said, its hard to bet against Mr. Russell.  However, he has gained above the line notice on his last two films (Silver Linings Playbook was JUST last year and incorporated most of the same primary actors) and unless this film is REALLY something special, AMPAS might decide that it is someone else's "turn" as it were.
  7. Gravity - Alfonso Cuaron (0 wins out of 2 nominations in writing categories) & Jonas Cuaron (never nominated)...This film and Elysium are in kind of the same boat.  In both cases, I have great confidence in the previously nominated writer's abilities, but in both cases the films are science fiction (or at least employ certain sci-fi sensibilities) and that does not always bode well with the writer's branch. For now, I'll give Cuaron the edge due to the fact that he has already proven not to be a one trick pony (with nods for both Y Tu Mama Tambien and Children of Men).
  8. Elysium - Neil Blomkampf (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...See what I said for Gravity.  Blomkampf's one trick was the brilliant debut effort District 9.
  9. The Past - Asghar Farhadi (0 wins out 1 nomination)...If The Past were not in French, I would probably place Farhadi MUCH higher on this list.  Still, he got here in Arabic with A Separation, so a nod is certainly possible.
     I never do this, but...
  10. Her - Spike Jonze (never nominated in writing categories)...I find it difficult to believe that the writer's branch has never honored him before, but it's true...
     (tied with)
        The Zero Theorem - Pat Rushin (never nominated)...I find it difficult to believe that the Academy has never embraced the film's of director Terry Gillam more than they have.  Maybe this is the year they FINALLY correct this.

     Plus...Ain't Them Bodies Saints (David Lowery, nn), The Dallas Buyer's Club (Craig Borten & Melissa Wallack, nn), Frances Ha (Noah Baumbach 0/1 & Greta Gerwig, nn), The Immigrant (James Gray & Rick Menello, nn), Mud (Jeff Nichols, nn), Nebraska (Bob Nelson, nn), Out of the Furnace (Brad Inglesby & Scott Cooper, nn), Rush (Peter Morgan 0/2), Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel, nn) & Stories We Tell (Sarah Polley, 0/1),
  Related articles: What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?, June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Aural Techs, The Visual Techs, The Genre Categories, The Help Review, The Perfect Para-Killer (Killer Joe review), Another Young Project (Young Adult review),  The Great Zac Efron Film Festival of 2012 (The Paperboy review), Dark Clouds Beautify "Silver Linings", Water and Earth Make "Mud"

June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Genre Categories

     The Genre Categories (as we like to call them here at TheMovieFrog, are different from categories that celebrate a certain aspect of film making (say, directing or editing) in that they are each like their own little Best Picture category for a certain type of film.  Other than Animated Feature, they are also the most baffling categories to predict, with the most convoluted rules about eligibility, and the most complicated nomination processes.  They also (aside from Animated Feature) are sure to contain the most OBSCURE collections of titles to be found among the twenty-four categories that the Academy deems fit to celebrate.  All that being said (and grains of salt hopefully at the ready), this is what the buzz (and in some cases I) have to say on these six.  As always, the buzz appears first, while my thoughts (where applicable) follow thereafter...


Short Subject (Live-Action)
     In all honesty, it's really difficult to say a lot about ANY of the shorts this far out, but for the sake of completion, I will try.  Two films of this variety have caught my attention: Come and Play and Needle.  Both have had some early film festival buzz and could easily be contenders this year IF they qualify to compete.  In June, that's a big if.


Short Subject (Documentary)
     Completion be damned, I got nothin...


Animated Short
     I feel a little more confident in this category, due to the industry influence of Pixar and its parent company Disney.  Both have strong contenders this year, and I think it's a pretty good bet to call them front runners at this point in the game.
     THE lead horse right now has to be Pixar's The Blue Umbrella. It is currently playing in theaters as the lead in to Monsters University and getting as many raves as the feature (if not more).  Playing in conjunction with a major blockbuster will give the film massive exposure and awareness (for a short) and the strategy certainly worked for last year's Animated Short winner Paperman, which played ahead of Wreck-It Ralph in theaters.
     BUT DON'T COUNT OUT...Disney's Get A Horse, which I believe is going to be released with their upcoming feature Frozen.  The short uses archive voice over work from Walt Disney himself using (very) old style animation and Mickey Mouse character design.  It's still being kept somewhat under wraps but is being quietly publicized in much the same way as Paperman was last year.


Foreign Language Film
     Usually, I would have my own list for this category by June, because there would be a couple of star international directors that I would be willing to go out on a limb for.  Unfortunately, most of the usual suspects for such treatment that have films coming out in 2013 are making them in ENGLISH.  I'm talking to YOU Susanne Bier (Serena), Joon-ho Bong (Snowpiercer) & Jean-Pierre Jeunet (The Young and Prodigious T.S. Spivet).  Pedro Almodovar coming out with a piece of fluff camp comic relief (I'm So Excited) doesn't help matters either.  I think I'll just offer short commentary on the picks that the buzz has come up with instead.
  1. Blue is the Warmest Color - France...Director Abdellatif Kechiche would appear to be as new of a voice for the Academy as for me, but the film won the Palme D'or at Cannes and that is always a good start.
  2. The Past - Iran...The last film that writer/director Asghar Farhadi gave us was the Oscar winning A Separation, and this picture (which also did very well at Cannes) would be a shoo-in for front runner status if only I felt a little more confident that it will even be submitted. Farhadi's home nation (Iran) boycotted the Oscars last year, and there is no telling if that choice will be repeated.  The film is in French and was produced by that nation, but for France to submit The Past, they would have to pass up Blue Is the Warmest Color, so who knows...?
  3. Child's Pose - Romania...This would be Calin Peter Netzer's first notice from the AMPAS but the film won both the Golden Bear and the Fipresi Prize in Berlin so it would seem to have an excellent shot.
  4. Salvo - Italy...This production from Academy rookie directors Fabio Grassadonia & Antonio Piazza didn't get QUITE the attention of "Blue" or "Past" at Cannes, but it did win the Critics Week Grand Prize and the France 4 Visionary Award.
  5. Lunchbox - India...Another Cannes Critics Week hit, this film is by director Ritesh Batra who was shortlisted for a Short nomination for his film Cafe Regular Cairo.  Having international star Irrfan Khan cast in the lead should help to build notoriety.

  6. Me, Myself & Mum - France...This is the freshman feature from director Guillaume Gallienne, and it got good notices at Cannes, but it is difficult to imagine France picking it over its more esteemed competitors.
  7. The Missing Picture - Cambodia...I don't know that there has ever been a film that became a nominee in all three feature length genre categories, but this animated documentary from Cambodian film maker Rithy Panh could possibly do it.  The film won the Un Certain Regard category at Cannes and was VERY well reviewed. Considering the director already has more of an international pedigree than most of the names on this list, and things start to seem even more probable.
  8. Gloria - Chile...Director Sebastian Lelio won the Prize of the Ecumenical Jury for this film at Berlin and star Paulina Garcia won the Silver Bear for Best Actress.  Can Chile get a second nod in a row?
  9. Like Father Like Son - Japan...This film won the Jury Prize at Cannes and despite international acclaim director Hirokazu Koreeda has yet to have a film nominated at the Oscars.  Might this be his year?
  10. Heli - Mexico...The same overdue factor could help director Amat Escalante secure his first nomination especially considering that he already won Best Director at Cannes.

     But don't count out...Mood Indigo (Belgium), The Hunt (Denmark), Omar (France), Closed Curtain (Germany), & Le Grande Bellazza (Italy)

Best Documentary Feature
     Actually, I think I'm gonna do exactly the same thing with this category.  I feel too ignorant of the width and breadth of the field to do much more...
  1. The Act of Killing...It's hard to argue with the buzz that Joshua Oppenheimer's film currently holds front runner status in this race.  First, it has the sort of unique premise for a documentary that the AMPAS seems to have taken to in recent years (Exit Through the Gift Shop is a good example).  Second, it currently holds a 92 Meta Score.  Third, it won the Prize of the Ecumenical Jury at Berlin.
  2. Stories We Tell...Director Sarah Polley usually makes narrative films and, as you can imagine, this is another highly unusual concept for a documentary that came about almost like a happy accident.  The film currently holds a 93 at Meta Critic and has already won great acclaim NORTH of the border from the Genie Awards, The Toronto Film Critics, The Vancouver Film Critics...
  3. We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks....Never count out director Alex Gibney, especially when he's delving into such timely material.  It's only sporting a 75 Meta Score at the moment, but who knows...?
  4. Blood Brother...Steve Hoover's tale of AIDS in India won both the Audience Award and Grand Jury Prize at Sundance, so it must be considered a serious contender as well.
  5. The Missing Picture...and if you read my analysis of Foreign Language Film you know the triple threat hopes that I'm pinning on this one.

  6. Salinger...Oscar often fails to notice biographical documentaries about artists like this one from documentarian Shane Salerno, but with the Weinstein Company backing it, anything is possible.
  7. Room 237...I would love to think that the Documentary branch could make room for Rodney Ascher's in-depth study of the hidden meanings in Stanley Kubrick's The Shining, but it doesn't seem like their sort of thing even with good to great reviews (80 on Meta Critic).
  8. 20 Feet From Stardom...Morgan Nelville's doc on the lives of back up singers did well at Sundance and currently holds an 82 on Meta Critic.
  9. Herblock: The Black and the White...I haven't really heard a LOT about this film that screened at Tribeca but it has garnered a bit of buzz.
  10. Running From Crazy...Documentaries on figures in entertainment don't usually fare well with Oscar, which doesn't bode all that well for this biographical film about Mariel Hemingway from Barbara Kopple.  However, last year's for Searching For Sugar Man win proved that exceptions can be made.

   
Animated Feature
  1. Frozen
  2. Monsters University
  3. Turbo
  4. Ernest and Celestine
  5. Epic

  6. Despicable Me 2
  7. Planes
  8. The Missing Picture
  9. Free Birds
  10. The Croods

     After having a couple of great years with the Academy, independent distributor G-Kids got shut out at the Oscars last year facing an unusually strong field of mainstream competitors.  I'm thinking that they make a comeback this year considering the strength of the field of possible acquisitions that lays before them in 2013.  My list may be some wishful thinking (nothing wrong with that in June) but I think that (likely G-Kids competitor Ernest and Celestine aside) the buzz is going WAY too conventional in a year that offers an unusually varied assortment of candidates...

  1. Monsters University...I doubt that this wins.  That being said, the franchise is well respected and it's Pixar.  Oh wait, maybe it could win...
  2. Frozen...Disney is really trying to rebrand itself.  If this year's effort comes anywhere near the quality that they achieved last year then a nomination seems more than likely.
  3. The Missing Picture...If G-Kids is smart they will snatch this Cannes award winner up and go for the big time!!!
  4. Ernest and Celestine...For a Foreign Language 'toon to have this much buzz early on, that's got to mean something.
  5. The Trick or Treaters...Although the Weinstein company has had difficulty trying to "Bully" their way into some genre categories of late, I think you underestimate this possibility at your peril.

  6. The Congress...If I knew this trippy adult tale from director Ari Folman would qualify, it would knock something out of the top five.
  7. Hell and Back...If I knew this would get released in time, this re-imagining of the Orpheus myth from the creators of Robot Chicken featuring Susan Sarandan would knock something out of the top five.
  8. The Wind Rises...Miyazaki makes this film a contender, the subject matter's connection to the Axis powers make it a tough sell.
  9. Turbo...Nobody knows anything yet.
  10. Free Birds...Ditto

     And of course...Despicable Me 2, Dorothy of Oz, Epic & Planes

     Next time out we go above the line and cover the Adapted and Original screenplay categories...

                                                                                Froggy

  Related articles:  What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?, June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Aural Techs, The Visual Techs, If It Ain't Wrecked (Wreck-It Ralph review), Side Smashed by Bully (Bully review)

June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Visual Techs

     I'm not going to spend a lot of time leading into this one because I have six categories to try and zip through here.  Again, I'm only going to offer alternate prediction lists where I seriously differ with the buzz.  As always, current buzz rankings appear first and my commentary (where applicable) comes afterwards. Let's hop on in...

  Make-Up and Hairstyling
1. The Butler
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Star Trek: Into Darkness

4. Grace of Monaco
5. Oz, the Great and Powerful
6. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
     The buzz seems to me to be on the right track as far as our limited knowledge allows us to guess.  The Butler in particular seems like a no-brainer with all of those famous faces to make into Presidential (or First Ladial) doubles.
     I would also consider:  Diana, Horns, Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, Only God Forgives and Snowpiercer (Have you seen Tilda in the previews?  Come on...)


  Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. Grace of Monaco
3. The Butler
4. The Monuments Men
5. Diana

6. The Immigrant
7. Oz, the Great and Powerful
8. The Wolf of Wall Street
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Saving Mr. Banks

     Like Score, this is one of those categories where certain artisans have actually created some semblance of celebrity (at least among those in the know in the industry).  As such, there are some overdue factors that I think deserve a LITTLE more consideration than the buzz currently affords them.  My list would look more like this...

1. The Great Gatsby - Catherine Martin (1 win out of 2 nominations)...Baz Luhrman's films may be EXTREMELY hit or miss with the Academy but his wife's Costume and Production Design can earn recognition even on a stinker of a film like Australia.  I see no reason to think that a divisive critical reception to Gatsby overall should be any deterrent to a well deserved nod for the film here.
2. The Butler - Ruth Carter (0 out of 2 wins)...Previously nominated with no wins plus period piece often equals nomination.  Multiple periods should only increase those odds.
3. The Wolf of Wall Street - Sandy Powell (3 wins out of 10 nominations)...Do I even need to justify predicting a nomination for the Meryl Streep of the craft categories?
4. Grace of Monaco - GiGi LePage (never nominated)...There's almost always one rookie nominee in the bunch.  Royalty and a period setting are two good reasons to pick this one.
5. Inside Llewyn Davis - Mary Zophres (0 wins out of 1 nomination)  This promises to be a multi-nod film anyway, and Ms. Zophres is still waiting for a win.

6. The Monuments Men - Louise Frogley (never nominated)...If there is room for two first time nominees, this seems like a likely second choice.  Plus, I love her name...
7. The Immigrant - IMDb doesn't even list the costume designer for this film at present but the reviews out of Cannes were HIGHLY complimentary of all the period detail on display, so...
8. Diana - Julian Day (never nominated)...I'm sure that Ms. Watts will sport some fabulous outfits in this and it does have the backing of the Weinstein Company, but the time period might be a tad too close to contemporary for the rarefied tastes of the Costume Branch.
9. Elysium - April Ferry (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Occasionally science fiction movies get honored here and Ms. Ferry doesn't have a win yet.  Considering how high the production values were on director Blomkampf''s District 9 when he had no budget to speak of, I'm expecting a strong showing from the follow up picture.
10. Captain Phillips - Mark Bridges (1 win out of 1 nomination)...Mr. Bridges is certainly central on the Academy's radar after his recent win for The Artist.  IF the costumers were to give the atypical nod to something more contemporary, this could be it.
     I am also keeping tabs on: The Counselor (Janty Yates), Labor Day (Danny Glicker), Oldboy (Ruth E Carter), Oz the Great and Powerful (Gary Jones), Philomena (Consolata Boyle), Saving Mr. Banks (Daniel Orlandi) & Serena (unannounced)


  Production Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. The Monuments Men
3. The Butler
4. Twelve Years a Slave
5. The Immigrant

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
9. Grace of Monaco
10. Oz, the Great and Powerful
     This looks like a pretty strong group of guesses, although I would say that slots 4-7 are fairly interchangeable.  Also on my radar:  Elysium, Kill Your Darlings, Saving Mr. Banks, Serena, Snowpiercer, World War Z, The Young and Prodigious T.S. Spivet, The Zero Theorem

  Cinematography
1. Gravity
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. The Monuments men
5. Captain Phillips

6. The Immigrant
7. Prisoners
8. The Wolf of Wall Street
9. The Counselor
10. Nebraska

     Just like with the Costume Branch, certain Cinematographers have a certain prestige attached to their name, which can influence how the Oscar race will go.  I think I'll predict...

1. Gravity - Emmanuelle Lubezki (0 wins out of 5 nominations)...If the camera work in the rest of the film comes close to maintaining the quality on display in the trailer, this overdue celebrity lenser should have no problem managing a sixth nod, if not the win.
2. Inside Llewyn Davis - Bruno Delbonnel (0 wins out of 3 nominations)...This is Mr. Delbonnel's first collaboration with the Coens and he is said to create a very unique look for the movie.  Multiple nominations with no wins are always a mark in your favor.
3. The Monuments Men - Phedon Papamichael (never nominated)...Again, there is almost always at least one rookie and between this film and Nebraska, Mr. Papamichael seems poised to take that slot.  For now, I'm going to say he gets in for this one.
4. The Wolf of Wall Street - Rodrigo Prieto (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Mr. Prieto may only have one nod to his credit, but he;s working with Scorsese and until proven otherwise, I'm expecting this to be one of the big players.
5. Twelve Years a Slave - Sean Bobbit (never nominated)...I KNOW, I'm predicting another rookie, but this is the man responsible for the camera work on Shame and The Place Beyond the Pines. If "Twelve" catches the Academy's eye as I'm expecting it to, and this man lives up to anything like his potential, expect him to pick up his first nomination.

6. Captain Phillips - Barry Ackroyd (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...If this film transcends mere Action Flick the way that everyone is expecting the cinematography will have to play a big role, so...
7. Oldboy - Sean Bobbit (never nominated)...Ditto to everything I just said about "Twelve", only with Spike Lee instead of Marty.
8. Prisoners - Roger Deakins (0 wins out of 10 nominations)...I'm not letting my expectations for Prisoners get too high to enjoy it if it turns out to be a perfectly good thriller and nothing more.  Still, if ANYONE is overdue for a win in this category, it's Roger Deakins.
9. The Immigrant - Darius Khondji (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Mr. Khondji may be far from the most recognizable name on this list, but his work on this film has already been seen and the consensus in tres' positive.
10. Pacific Rim - Guillermo Navarro (1 win out of 1 nomination)...If anyone can pull a cinematography nod out of giant fighting robots, it would be the man who won an Oscar lensing Pan's Labyrinth.
   
     But don't count out: The Butler (Andrew Dunn), The Counselor (Darius Wolski), Elysium (Trent Opaloch), The Great Gatsby (Simon Duggan), Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael), Rush (Anthony Dod Mantle), Saving Mr. Banks (John Schwartman) & To The Wonder (Emmanuelle Lubezki)

  Editing
1. Gravity
2. The Monuments Men
3. Captain Phillips
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Inside Llewyn Davis

6. The Counselor
7. Twelve Years a Slave
8. Elysium
9. American Hustle
10. August: Osage County

     This category is usually tied so closely to Best Picture that the best thing to do this early in the game is throw together ten films that MIGHT be fighting it out for the top prize giving a little bit of an edge to movies with an action element.  That's pretty much what the buzz has done.
     I would also consider: The Butler, Foxcatcher, Labor Day, The Man of Steel, Nebraska, Oldboy, Pacific Rim, Prisoners, Rush, Snowpiercer, World War Z & The Young and Prodigious Spivet

  and

  Visual Effects

1. Gravity

2. Man of Steel

3. Elysium

4. Pacific Rim

5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

6. Star Trek: Into Darkness

7. The Great Gatsby

8. Oblivion

9. Iron Man 3

10.Oz, the Great and Powerful

     

     I won't say a whole lot here, I'll just give you my list.

1. Gravity

2. Man of Steel...Hard to argue with these two at this juncture.

3. Elysium...I REFUSE to argue with this one.

4. Snowpiercer...Am I the ONLY person Tilda is already giving shivers to?

5. Pacific Rim

6. World War Z...the promos are pretty amazing, am I right?

7. Star Trek: Into Darkness

8. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug...both of these franchises must be taken seriously here.

9. Europa Report...seems more likely than Gatsby, that's for damn sure.

10. Oz, the Great and Powerful

     And...whew...that's the Techs, post-Cannes edition.  Predictions will resume shortly with the six Genre categories. Just don't expect any profound wisdom about the shorts. If you have some, please share...

                                                                          Froggy

  Related articles: What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?, June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Aural Techs

June Oscar Buzz & Predictions - The Aural Techs

     Trying to predict the technical categories this early out is really a crap shoot.  For starters, the awards are more about the actual work in the actual film than who or what star is (or is perceived as being) overdue at the moment.  Of course, these days there are celebrity cinematographers, composers, even costumers, so sometimes you DO see "career achievement" nominations and wins.  In many of these categories, I'm just going to let the (minimal) buzz speak for itself, and in some I'll offer my alternate predictions.  By the time I update these in...August, maybe...I'll probably be ready to offer my alternate predictions in all categories, but I'm still getting a feel for an awards season that is just getting underway.  As always, buzz rankings will come first, followed where applicable by my thoughts.  For now, these are your four aural craft categories...

  Sound Editing
1. Gravity
2. Elysium
3. Man of Steel
4. The Monuments Men
5. Captain Phillips

6. Star Trek: Into Darkness
7. Pacific Rim
8. Iron Man 3
9. American Hustle
10. All is Lost
     This is a pretty good list for guesswork.  Iron Man 3 seems like something of an enormous long shot, but otherwise pretty good possibilities.  Sound Editing is about the creation of sound effects, primarily.  Science fiction and animation fare a little more strongly here than in Sound Mixing (and I'm a little shocked that no animated film is in the top ten buzz-wise), but generally both Sound Categories are populated with a total mish mash of prestige and blockbuster fare, and the top five are a pretty good mix.
     I would also strongly consider: The Counselor, Frozen, Inside Llewyn Davis, Monsters University, Only God Forgives, Prisoners, Snowpiercer, Twelve Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street & World War Z.

  Sound Mixing
1. Gravity
2. Inside Llewyn Davis
3. The Monuments Men
4. Elysium
5. Man of Steel

6. Captain Phillips
7. Star Trek: Into Darkness
8. Iron Man 3
9. World War Z
10. Black Nativity
     Another smart list (although again Iron Man 3 and even the Star Trek sequel seem unlikely).  Musicals and musically themed movies have a bit of leg up here by comparison to Sound Editing.  That's why Inside Llewyn Davis is so high on this list and absent on the other.  Again, a good of blend of arthouse, popcorn and hybrid is achieved.
     I would not ignore the possibilities of:  All Is Lost, the Counselor, Frozen, Monsters University, Only God Forgives, Pacific Rim, Rush, Snowpiercer, Twelve Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street


  Original Song
1. Out of the Furnace
2. Frozen
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. The Sapphires
5. The Great Gatsby
     Or at least, that's what the uninformed, infinitesimal buzz says.  If predicting most of the crafts is hopeless this time of year, that goes double for Original Song.  For the most part, we have no idea what films feature Original Songs, what they will sound like, or who will be writing and/or performing them.  I don't even know if all of the films above have songs that will qualify, although there is some pretty cool stuff on the Gatsby soundtrack.
     I would also keep an eye on:  August: Osage County, Black Nativity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Monsters University, Oz the Great and Powerful, Planes



  Original Score
1. The Monuments Men
2. Gravity
3. The Counselor
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Oldboy

6. Frozen
7. The Butler
8. Man of Steel
9. Saving Mr. Banks
10. World War Z
     Score is another sticky wicket for early prognosticators because the Music branch is VERY finicky when it comes to their rules about what qualifies as an original score and what doesn't.  However, the notoriety of certain composers (and the AMPAS's tendency to nominate many of the same artists again and again) DO make this one of the few tech categories that I feel like tossing out some ideas about this early in the game:

1. The Monuments Men - Alexander Desplat (0 wins out of 5 nominations)...It's hard to argue that one of the most popular working film composers scoring one of the most obvious "Oscar movies" in years seems like a slam dunk for a nomination, if not a win.
2. Man of Steel - Hans Zimmer (1 win out of 9 nominations)...It also seems impossible that after being nominated this many times, the Academy doesn't plan on giving at least one more statuette to Mr. Zimmer.  This seems like a perfect vehicle for something memorable.
3. Snowpiercer - Marco Beltrani (0 wins out of 2 nominations)...Call it a hunch.  The man seems due his third nod, but he could also get one for World War Z.  I just have this feeling that Snowpiercer is going to be something special all the way around.
4. Gravity - Steven Price (never nominated)...Everyone seems to expect that Mr. Price (who has only scored Attack the Block previously) is going to be THAT break out nominee this year.  It feels like they know something I don't.  I WILL say, however, that a film that is largely about a woman stuck in space walk by herself would provide plenty of opportunity to highlight a strong score to fill the...um...vacuum...sorry, I had to...of empty moments.
5. The Wolf of Wall Street - Howard Shore (2 wins out of 3 nominations in this category)...This is likely to be one of the big awards players this year and Mr. Shore certainly has the Academy's attention, but its not like he's overdue...

6. Twelve Years a Slave - Hans Zimmer...Of course, Man of Steel is not the only perfectly good opportunity that Mr. Zimmer has to wow the Academy this year.
7. Monsters University - Randy Newman (0 wins out of 8 nominations)...Yes, you read that correctly.  Although Mr. Newman has two Oscars for Original Song, he has never won for Score.  His win to nomination ratio in this category makes him arguably the most overdue for a win of any of these composers.
8. Oz, the Great and Powerful - Danny Elfman (0 wins out of 4 nominations)...Talk about iconic multi-nominated composers with no wins...but will this tepidly received picture do it for him?
9. Saving Mr. Banks - Thomas Newman (0 wins out of 4 nominations)...This movie is already making my teeth hurt but I could certainly see this as a possible area of recognition and again...no wins yet.
10. World War Z - Marco Beltrani...Most pundits, I'm sure, would expect Mr. Beltrani to have a better shot with this film than Snowpiercer, but if I can't indulge in a little wishful thinking in June, why bother?
     Don't count out: All Is Lost - Alex Ebert, The Counselor - Daniel Pemberton, Frozen - Christophe Beck, Oldboy - Bruce Hornsby, Rush - Hans Zimmer

     And that's it for today.  I'll be back soon with the six Visual Techs...Froggy

  Related Articles: What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?

What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?

     So where are we in terms of the new Oscar Season?  Well...summer tent pole season is well under way with Iron Man and Star Trek sequels already tearing up the vacation box office.  Release dates have been announced for MOST of the big Awards players so we have a pretty good idea which films are on the long list of competitors for 2013, although it is still a mystery as to which ones will deliver.  Sundance and Cannes film festivals have come and gone, some early contenders have opened, and we now have SOME idea how a FEW of this year's big films will be received:

  42 - With a metacritic score of only 62 this film seems unlikely to break in to the Awards Season. I had at one point thought that it might garner Acting buzz for Chadwick Boseman in Lead and un-Oscared vet Harrison Ford in supporting, but neither seems like a possibility now.

  The Act of Killing - After winning two prizes in Berlin, this documentary (currently holding a 92 on Meta Critic) holds an excellent chance at being in the running, but the Documentary category is famously unpredictable.

  Ain't Them Bodies Saints - This film did really well at Sundance and Palm Springs but is the sort of little drama that is often forgotten by year's end. However, with the Weinstein Company behind it, expect it to be a contender at the least in Actress, Screenplay and maybe Cinematography or Supporting Actor.  Picture seems a little beyond its reach at the moment, but stranger things have happened.

  All Is Lost - This film played so well at Cannes that many wondered why writer/director J.C. Chandor's sophomore effort (following debut Margin Call) didn't play in competition.  A Best Picture nod seems within the realm of possibility (maybe even Director), but screenplay seems more likely and Best Actor for vet Robert Redford (who turns in a nearly wordless one man show and hasn't been nominated in about four decades) seems highly probable.

  Before Midnight - The conclusion to one of the most critically acclaimed trilogies of all time, it is also the first of the series to be released in a year with more than five possible Best Picture slots.  It is also shaping up to be the best received among director Richard Linklater's extended masterpiece, currently holding a 97(!!!!) Meta-score.  Nods for Screenplay and Actress (Julie Delpy) seem likely.  Could also compete in Actor (Ethan Hawke)...Director...?

  The Bling Ring - Sofia Coppola's follow-up to Somewhere was well received at Cannes, but probably a no-show for the Oscars.

  Blood Brother - Another doc that knocked it out of the park at Sundance this year, this could also easily find a nomination.

   Blue Is the Warmest Color - I seriously doubt that this year's Palme D'or winner from Cannes can break out of the Foreign Language ghetto the way that Amour did last year, but if selected for submission it could be a force in that category.

  The Congress - Probably a little weird for consideration unless they manage to qualify it for Animated Feature in which case it could make a mark in a year where Pixar seems vulnerable.

  The East - With a mere 70 Metascore, it appears unlikely that this picture can garner even the Best Screenplay nod I had hoped might lie in store for Ms. Marling.

  Epic - This could easily compete in Animated.

  Fruitvale Station - This picture has been only slightly less revered at Sundance at Cannes this year than Best Picture nominee Beasts of the Southern Wild was in 2012.  Beasts didn't have Harvey Weinstein pushing it.  I think Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor (Jordan) and Supporting Actress (Spencer) are all real possibilities.

  Great Gatsby - Probably a no-go for above the line nominations, although Leo's good press could help with a "Wolf" bid down the line.  Still a strong possibility for Costume Design and/or Production Design with an outside shot at Cinematography.  Original Song also seems like a good possibility.

  The Hunt - If it is submitted for Foreign Language Film, I wouldn't bet against a Vinterburg directed Mads Mickelson vehicle with great reviews.

  The Immigrant - James Gray's meticulous period piece may be too divisive to break into the Picture race, but actress Marion Cotillard should at least stay in the discussion for a while.  Craft recognition is also a possibility.

  Inside Llewyn Davis - Supposedly another little masterpiece from the Coen camp, this film probably has the strongest bid at Picture and Director (much less Original Screenplay) of anything to have premiered thus far.  Oscar Isaac & John Goodman are also receiving generous buzz (along with a bit for Mulligan).  The period setting and musical theme invite a host of below the line considerations.  This could be one of the year's big ones. It's current Meta score is 100.

  Iron Man 3 - This one might get a tech nod or two, it just depends.

  Midnight's Children - Not in the running.

  The Missing Picture - Foreign Language? Documentary? Animated?  A triple genre category threat?

  Mud - Talented young auteur Jeff Nichols' third film has been a break out box office success story.  A 76 on meta critic may not be enough to put it in the Picture race but McConaughey will be in the Best Actor conversation unless he blows this career best performance out of the water in Dallas Buyer's Club.

  Nebraska - Alexander Payne is always a threat but reception to the film seems lukewarm in some circles.  Bruce Dern seems bound for some recognition at any rate, and there has been some talk of Cinematography recognition.  We'll have to see how it is received by the public and critical community at large.  It currently holds a 79 on Metacritic.

  Only God Forgives - We'll be kind and call the critical reception divisive, but Kristen Scott Thomas still has a shot at Supporting Actress and the film could factor into the techs somewhere.

  Oz the Great and Powerful - Lackluster reviews could mean nothing as far as craft considerations go for a production as over the top as this.

  The Past - Asghar Farhadi's follow up to A Separation would be a slam dunk for Foreign Language Film IF Iran participates and/or France chooses to submit it, but that is a lot of if.  Berenice Bejo could break into the Actress race regardless and screenplay is definitely a possibility.  The film stands an outside shot at Picture and/or Director consideration, but Farhadi's popularity is not quite on a Haneke scale...yet.

  A Place Beyond the Pines - Mixed critical reception will probably keep this one out of contention.

  Room 237 - This Kubrick analysis doesn't seem like the Documentary branch's cup of tea, but you never know with reviews that give it an 80 on Meta critic.

  Salinger - Another Documentary contender, this one is backed by the Weinsteins.

  The Sapphires - At one point it looked like the Weinsteins had big plans for this flick, and it was fairly well received, but it doesn't look like it is destined to be an awards player after all.

  Star Trek: Into Darkness - This picture could easily factor into the sound categories, visual effects or make-up. It just depends on the rest of the fields.

  Stories We Tell - Currently holding a 93 metascore, I think it's safe to say that Sarah Polley's latest film is currently the most acclaimed documentary of the year.  It also contains a unique enough premise that it has begun to foster the sort of Best Picture crossover talk that teased us when Exit to the Gift Shop first came around.

  To The Wonder - You should never rule out a Cinematography nod, but I think this is one Malick film that's going to slip slowly under the radar and stay there.

  Trance - Ditto to this largely ignored Danny Boyle creation.

  We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks - This film may only have a 76 Meta score so far, but director Alex Gibney is well respected by the Academy's documentary branch.



  While it may seem from this exhaustive list like the Awards Season is already taking shape, there are even MORE films with strong pedigrees that no one has seen just yet, including:

  American Hustle: David O Russell with Lawrence, Bale, Cooper, Adams & Renner
  August: Osage County: with Streep, Roberts, McGregor, Cumberbatch, Shepard, Lewis & Martindale
  Blue Jasmine: Woody Allen with Blanchett, Baldwin, Sarsgaard, Stuhlbarg, Hawkins & Louis C.K.
  The Butler: Lee Daniels with Whittaker, Winfrey, Cusack, Fonda, Williams, Oyelowo, Redgrave, ETC.
  Captain Phillips: Paul Greengrass with Hanks and Keener.
  The Counselor: Ridley Scott directs a script from Cormac McCarthey with Fassbender & Pitt.
  Dallas Buyer's Club: Jean-Marc Vallee with McConaughey, Garner, Leto & Zahn.
  Diana: seems tailor made for a Watts Best Actress campaign.
  Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers: Never count out Jessica Chastain.
  Elysium: Neil Blomkampf's District 9 follow up features Damon, Foster & "District" star Copley.
  The Family: Luc Besson with De Niro, Pfeiffer & Jones.
  Foxcatcher: Bennett Miller with Carrell, Ruffalo, Tatum, Hall, Miller & Redgrave.
  Frozen:  It's Disney.  Do the math.
  Grace of Monaco: Kidman in title role & backed by the Weinsteins
  Gravity: Alphonso Cuaron with Bullock and Clooney in 3-D.
  Her: written/directed by Spike Jonze with Phoenix, Adams, Johannsen, Mara, Wilde & Morten.
  Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug: Jackson in Middle Earth means at least a tech contender.
  Kill Your Darlings: John Krokidas with Radcliffe, Cross, Olsen, Hall, DeHaan, Leigh, Foster & Sedgewick
  Labor Day: Jason Reitman with Winslet, Brolin & Maguire.
  Man of Steel: Will be one of the tech kings.  Michael Shannon in Supporting?  He is Zod!
  Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom:  Weinstein pushes Elba for Best Actor.
  Monsters University:  It's Pixar.  Do the math.
  Monuments Men:  written/directed/produced by Clooney with Damon, Goodman, Blanchett, Murray...
  Mood Indigo: Gondry could be a threat in Foreign Film if submitted.
  A Most Wanted Man: Anton Corbjin with Hoffman, Wright, McAdams, Dafoe & Bruhl.
  Nymphomaniac: Lars von Trier will make a lot of top 10 lists, but probably bomb with Oscar.
  Oldboy:  Spike Lee's remake will probably be too pulpy but with Jackson, Brolin, Olsen & Copley.
  Out of the Furnace: Scott Cooper with Bale, Saldana, Harrison, Defoe, Affleck, Whitaker & Shepard.
  Pacific Rim:  Guillermo del Toro and a budget this big could make for a tech powerhouse.
  Philomena:  Harvey Weinstein has picked up this Frears directed Dench vehicle for distribution, so...?
  Planes: It's Pixar...again...
  The Rover: David Michod with Edgerton, Pearce, McNairy & Pattinson.
  Rush: Ron Howard with Hemsworth, Bruhl, Dormer & Wilde.
  Saving Mr. Banks: John Lee Hancock with Thompson, Hanks, Farrell, Giamatti & Schwartzman.
  Serena:  Susanne Bier with Lawrence, Cooper, Ifans & Jones.
  Snowpiercer: Joon-ho Bong with Evans, Swinton, Hurt, Belle & Harris.
  Twelve Years a Slave - Steve McQueen with Ejiofor, Fassbender, Pitt, Cumberbatch, Giamatti...
  Wolf of Wall Street - Martin Scorsese with DiCaprio, Hill, McConaughey, Favreau, Reiner, Chandler...
  World War Z - Marc Forster's Brad Pitt blockbuster's promos look good enough for crafts...
  Young and Prodigious Spivet - Backed by Weinstein from Jean-Pierre Jeunet in English!!!
  The Zero Theorem - Terry Gillem with Damon, Waltz, Whishaw, Swinton, Thewliss & Thierry.

     I have read some pundits putting forth the idea that this year's Best Picture pool is already looking thin, but I think that things are still wide open.  Watch in the next couple of weeks for my first round of  buzz reports and predictions, starting with a brief touch on each of the ten Technical categories.

                                                                              Froggy

  Related Articles: Best That the Summer Wields (Beasts of the Southern Wild review), Water and Earth Make "Mud", A Price Beyond This Time (The Place Beyond the Pines review)

2013 Awards Preview - Postscript: Predictions

     Of course, nobody knows anything yet, but I can't resist doing this just for fun.  I haven't even started tracking 86th Oscar Buzz in any significant way yet.  This is just going with my gut. That being said, five of the eventual Best Picture nominees from last year were in my preview series predictions top ten and I made those a couple of weeks earlier.  Three of the other four were in my alternates.  Amour is the only possibility that seemed to really escape me, but how often does a non-English language film actually crack the Best Picture category?  Let's see if I can do any better this year.  Bear in mind, the last couple of alternate slots in any category are usually going to be things I would LIKE to see happen.  Some are a little wild...

  Best Picture
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Nebraska
5. Fruitvale Station
6. The Monuments Men
7. Elysium
8. Before Midnight (ala Toy Story 3 and the expanded field effect)
9. The Butler
10. The Counselor

11. American Hustle
12. The Zero Theorem
13. The Immigrant
14. The Great Gatsby
15. Labor Day
16. The Rover
17. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
18. To The Wonder
19. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
20. The East
  But don't rule out: All Is Lost, August: Osage County, Captain Phillips, The Fifth Estate, Foxcatcher, Grace of Monico, Gravity, Her, Kill Your Darlings, Midnight's Children, Mud, Only God Forgives, The Place Beyond the Pines, Serena, Snowpiercer, Trance, World War Z

  Best Director
1. Steve McQueen - Twelve Years a Slave
2. Martin Scorcese - The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Alexander Payne - Nebraska
4. Ryan Coogler - Fruitvale Station'
5. The Coen Brothers - Inside Llewyn Davis

6. Neil Blomkamp - Elysium
7. Lee Daniels - The Butler
8. George Clooney - The Monuments Men
9. Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
10. Terence Malick - To The Wonder
  Other possibilities: David O Russell - American Hustle, Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips, Ridley Scott - The Couselor, Bill Condon - The Fifth Estate, Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher, Baz Luhrman - The Great Gatsby, James Grey - The Immigrant, Jason Reitman - Labor Day, Deepa Mehta - Midnight's Children, Jeff Nichols - Mud, Nicholas Winding Refn - Only God Forgives, David Michod - The Rover, Susanne Bier - Serena, Jean-Pierre Juenet - The Young and Prodigious Spivet, Terry Gillem - The Zero Theorem

  Best Actor
1. Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station
2. Michael Fassbender - The Counselor
3. Chiawatel Ejiofor - Twelve Years a Slave
4. Robert Redford - All Is Lost
5. Bruce Dern - Nebraska

6. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Forest Whitaker - The Butler
9. Matthew MacConaughey - Mud
10. Christoph Waltz - The Zero Theorem
  Or...Casey Affleck - Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Bradley Cooper - American Hustle, Dennis Quaid - At Any Price, Ethan Hawke - Before Midnight, Toby Jones - Berberian Sound Studio, Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips, Matt Damon - Elysium, Bradley Cooper - The Fifth Estate, Mads Mickelson - The Hunt, Jeremy Renner - The Immigrant, Daniel Radcliffe - Kill Your Darlings, Ryan Gosling - Only God Forgives, Leonardo DiCaprio - The Great Gatsby, Joaquin Phoenix - Her, Idris Elba - Mandela: TheLong Walk To Freedom, Ryan Gosling - The Place Beyond the Pines, Christian Bale - Out of the Furnace, Colin Firth - The Railway Man, Guy Pearce - The Rover, Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks

  Best Actress
1. Nicole Kidman - Grace of Monaco
2. Jessica Chastain - The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers
3. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler
4. Carey Mulligan - The Great Gatsby
5. Rooney Mara - Ain't Them Bodies Saints

6. Naomie Watts - Diana
7. Sandra Bullock - Gravity
8. Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant
9. Julie Delpy - Before Midnight
10. Susan Sarandan - The Company You Keep
     I also thought about: Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle, Meryl Streep - August: Osage County, Rooney Mara - Her, Saoirse Ronan - How I Live Now, Mia Wasikowska - Madame Bovary, Naomi Harris - Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom, Shaillene Woodley - The Spectacular Now

  Best Supporting Actor
1. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis
2. Robert DeNiro - American Hustle
3. Brad Pitt - The Counselor
4. Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher
5. Ewan McGregor - August: Osage County

6. Michael Fassbender - Twelve Years a Slave
7. Robin Williams - The Butler
8. Matthew MacConaughey - The Wolf of Wall Street
9. Will Forte - Nebraska
10. Ezra Miller - Madame Bovary
  Also: Ben Foster - Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Jeremy Renner - American Hustle, Chris Cooper - August: Osage County, Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County, John Cusack - The Butler, Michael Fassbender - Frank, Tim Roth - Grace of Monaco, Tobey McGuire - The Great Gatsby, Joachin Phoenix - The Immigrant, Justin Timberlake - Inside Llewyn Davis, Matt Damon - The Monuments Men, Jean Dujardin - The Monuments Men, John Goodman - The Monuments Men, Casey Affleck - Out of the Furnace, Bradley Cooper - The Place Beyond the Pines, Scoot McNairy - The Rover, Robert Pattinson - The Rover, Paul Giamatti - Twelve Years a Slave, Brad Pitt - Twelve Years a Slave, Ben Whishaw - The Zero Theorem

  Best Supporting Actress
1. Jane Fonda - The Butler
2. Viola Davis - The Disappearence of Eleanor Rigby: Hers or His, not sure which
3. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
4. Cate Blanchett - The Monuments Men
5. Alfre Woodard - Twelve Years a Slave

6. Amy Adams - American Hustle
7. Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station
8. Catherine Keener - Captain Phillips
9. Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Ellen Page - The East
  And then you have: Juliette Lewis - August: Osage County, Melissa Leo - The Butler, Parker Posey - Grace of Monaco, Samantha Morten - Her, Michelle Pfeiffer - Malavita, Kristen Scott Thomas - Only God Forgives, Zoe Saldana - Out of the Furnace, Quvenzhane Wallis - Twelve Years a Slave, Judy Davis - The Young and Prodigious Spivet

  Adapted Screenplay
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Before Midnight
3. The Butler
4. The Monuments Men
5. Much Ado About Nothing

6. The Great Gatsby
7. Prince Avalanche
8. Midnight's Children
9. Snowpiercer
10. Man of Steel
  In the running: The Fifth Estate, The Spectacular Now, Two Faces of January

  Original Screenplay
1. Inside Llewyn Davis
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Fruitvale Station
4. Nebraska
5. The Immigrant

6. The Counselor
7. Elysium
8. American Hustler
9. The Zero Theorem
10. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
  Also keeping an eye on: All Is Lost, Captain Phillips, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His and/or Hers, The East, Foxcatcher, Frank, Grace of Monaco, Kill Your Darlings, Mud, Only God Forgives, Her, The Place Beyond the Pines, The Rover, Trance, The Young and Prodigious Spivet, World War Z

  Best Cinematography
1. The Monuments Men
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
4. Nebraska
5. To The Wonder

6. Elysium
7. The Zero Theorem
8. The Wolf of Wall Street
9. All Is Lost
10. Only God Forgives

  Best Editing
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Elysium
5. The Monuments Men

6. Fruitvale Station
7. The Butler
8. Man of Steel
9. The East
10. The Counselor

  Best Production Design
1. The Monuments Men
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Elysium
4. Twelve Years a Slave
5. The Butler

6. Oblivion
7. Grace of Monaco
8. Kill Your Darlings
9. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
10. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

  Best Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. Grace of Monaco
3. The Butler
4. Oz the Great and Powerful
5. The Immigrant

6. Diana
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Twelve Years a Slave
9. The Monuments Men
10. The Rover

  Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
1. The Butler
2. Oz the Great and Powerful
3. World War Z

4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Grace of Monaco
6. Only God Forgives

  Best Original Score
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Man of Steel
3. The Monuments Men
4. World War Z
5. Oldboy

6. Oz the Great and Powerful
7. Snowpiercer
8. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
9. Elysium
10. The Zero Theorem

  Best Original Song
1. Was there an Original Song in Sapphires?
2. Planes
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Oz the Great and Powerful
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

  Best Sound Editing
1. Elysium
2. Man of Steel
3. The Monuments Men
4. All is Lost
5. Only God Forgives

6. World War Z
7. Oz the Great and Powerful
8. Snowpiercer
9. Twelve Years a Slave
10. Captain Phillips

  Best Sound Mixing
1. The Monuments Men
2. Man of Steel
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Elysium
5. World War Z

6. Only God Forgives
7. All is Lost
8. Twelve Years a Slave
9. The Wolf of Wall Street
10. Captain Phillips

  Best Visual Effects
1. Elysium
2. Man of Steel
3. World War Z
4. Snowpiercer
5. The Europa Report

6. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
7. Gravity
8. The Great Gatsby
9. All is Lost
10. Oblivion

  Best Documentary Feature
1. Stories We Tell
2. The Act of Killing
3. Blood Brother
4. We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks
5. Room 237

  Best Foreign Language Film
1. Child's Pose
2. The Hunt
3. Gloria
4. The Past
5. Le Grande Bellazza

6. Closed Curtain
7. Venus in Fur
8. Goodbye to Language
9. Attilla Marcel
10. Mood Indigo

  Best Animated Feature
1. Frozen
2. Planes
3. The Wind Rises
4. Monsters University
5. Hell and Back

6. Epic
7. Ernest and Celestine
8. Leo the Lion
9. Despicable Me Too
10. The Croods

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