June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Visual Techs

     I'm not going to spend a lot of time leading into this one because I have six categories to try and zip through here.  Again, I'm only going to offer alternate prediction lists where I seriously differ with the buzz.  As always, current buzz rankings appear first and my commentary (where applicable) comes afterwards. Let's hop on in...

  Make-Up and Hairstyling
1. The Butler
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Star Trek: Into Darkness

4. Grace of Monaco
5. Oz, the Great and Powerful
6. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
     The buzz seems to me to be on the right track as far as our limited knowledge allows us to guess.  The Butler in particular seems like a no-brainer with all of those famous faces to make into Presidential (or First Ladial) doubles.
     I would also consider:  Diana, Horns, Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, Only God Forgives and Snowpiercer (Have you seen Tilda in the previews?  Come on...)


  Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. Grace of Monaco
3. The Butler
4. The Monuments Men
5. Diana

6. The Immigrant
7. Oz, the Great and Powerful
8. The Wolf of Wall Street
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Saving Mr. Banks

     Like Score, this is one of those categories where certain artisans have actually created some semblance of celebrity (at least among those in the know in the industry).  As such, there are some overdue factors that I think deserve a LITTLE more consideration than the buzz currently affords them.  My list would look more like this...

1. The Great Gatsby - Catherine Martin (1 win out of 2 nominations)...Baz Luhrman's films may be EXTREMELY hit or miss with the Academy but his wife's Costume and Production Design can earn recognition even on a stinker of a film like Australia.  I see no reason to think that a divisive critical reception to Gatsby overall should be any deterrent to a well deserved nod for the film here.
2. The Butler - Ruth Carter (0 out of 2 wins)...Previously nominated with no wins plus period piece often equals nomination.  Multiple periods should only increase those odds.
3. The Wolf of Wall Street - Sandy Powell (3 wins out of 10 nominations)...Do I even need to justify predicting a nomination for the Meryl Streep of the craft categories?
4. Grace of Monaco - GiGi LePage (never nominated)...There's almost always one rookie nominee in the bunch.  Royalty and a period setting are two good reasons to pick this one.
5. Inside Llewyn Davis - Mary Zophres (0 wins out of 1 nomination)  This promises to be a multi-nod film anyway, and Ms. Zophres is still waiting for a win.

6. The Monuments Men - Louise Frogley (never nominated)...If there is room for two first time nominees, this seems like a likely second choice.  Plus, I love her name...
7. The Immigrant - IMDb doesn't even list the costume designer for this film at present but the reviews out of Cannes were HIGHLY complimentary of all the period detail on display, so...
8. Diana - Julian Day (never nominated)...I'm sure that Ms. Watts will sport some fabulous outfits in this and it does have the backing of the Weinstein Company, but the time period might be a tad too close to contemporary for the rarefied tastes of the Costume Branch.
9. Elysium - April Ferry (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Occasionally science fiction movies get honored here and Ms. Ferry doesn't have a win yet.  Considering how high the production values were on director Blomkampf''s District 9 when he had no budget to speak of, I'm expecting a strong showing from the follow up picture.
10. Captain Phillips - Mark Bridges (1 win out of 1 nomination)...Mr. Bridges is certainly central on the Academy's radar after his recent win for The Artist.  IF the costumers were to give the atypical nod to something more contemporary, this could be it.
     I am also keeping tabs on: The Counselor (Janty Yates), Labor Day (Danny Glicker), Oldboy (Ruth E Carter), Oz the Great and Powerful (Gary Jones), Philomena (Consolata Boyle), Saving Mr. Banks (Daniel Orlandi) & Serena (unannounced)


  Production Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. The Monuments Men
3. The Butler
4. Twelve Years a Slave
5. The Immigrant

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
9. Grace of Monaco
10. Oz, the Great and Powerful
     This looks like a pretty strong group of guesses, although I would say that slots 4-7 are fairly interchangeable.  Also on my radar:  Elysium, Kill Your Darlings, Saving Mr. Banks, Serena, Snowpiercer, World War Z, The Young and Prodigious T.S. Spivet, The Zero Theorem

  Cinematography
1. Gravity
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. The Monuments men
5. Captain Phillips

6. The Immigrant
7. Prisoners
8. The Wolf of Wall Street
9. The Counselor
10. Nebraska

     Just like with the Costume Branch, certain Cinematographers have a certain prestige attached to their name, which can influence how the Oscar race will go.  I think I'll predict...

1. Gravity - Emmanuelle Lubezki (0 wins out of 5 nominations)...If the camera work in the rest of the film comes close to maintaining the quality on display in the trailer, this overdue celebrity lenser should have no problem managing a sixth nod, if not the win.
2. Inside Llewyn Davis - Bruno Delbonnel (0 wins out of 3 nominations)...This is Mr. Delbonnel's first collaboration with the Coens and he is said to create a very unique look for the movie.  Multiple nominations with no wins are always a mark in your favor.
3. The Monuments Men - Phedon Papamichael (never nominated)...Again, there is almost always at least one rookie and between this film and Nebraska, Mr. Papamichael seems poised to take that slot.  For now, I'm going to say he gets in for this one.
4. The Wolf of Wall Street - Rodrigo Prieto (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Mr. Prieto may only have one nod to his credit, but he;s working with Scorsese and until proven otherwise, I'm expecting this to be one of the big players.
5. Twelve Years a Slave - Sean Bobbit (never nominated)...I KNOW, I'm predicting another rookie, but this is the man responsible for the camera work on Shame and The Place Beyond the Pines. If "Twelve" catches the Academy's eye as I'm expecting it to, and this man lives up to anything like his potential, expect him to pick up his first nomination.

6. Captain Phillips - Barry Ackroyd (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...If this film transcends mere Action Flick the way that everyone is expecting the cinematography will have to play a big role, so...
7. Oldboy - Sean Bobbit (never nominated)...Ditto to everything I just said about "Twelve", only with Spike Lee instead of Marty.
8. Prisoners - Roger Deakins (0 wins out of 10 nominations)...I'm not letting my expectations for Prisoners get too high to enjoy it if it turns out to be a perfectly good thriller and nothing more.  Still, if ANYONE is overdue for a win in this category, it's Roger Deakins.
9. The Immigrant - Darius Khondji (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Mr. Khondji may be far from the most recognizable name on this list, but his work on this film has already been seen and the consensus in tres' positive.
10. Pacific Rim - Guillermo Navarro (1 win out of 1 nomination)...If anyone can pull a cinematography nod out of giant fighting robots, it would be the man who won an Oscar lensing Pan's Labyrinth.
   
     But don't count out: The Butler (Andrew Dunn), The Counselor (Darius Wolski), Elysium (Trent Opaloch), The Great Gatsby (Simon Duggan), Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael), Rush (Anthony Dod Mantle), Saving Mr. Banks (John Schwartman) & To The Wonder (Emmanuelle Lubezki)

  Editing
1. Gravity
2. The Monuments Men
3. Captain Phillips
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Inside Llewyn Davis

6. The Counselor
7. Twelve Years a Slave
8. Elysium
9. American Hustle
10. August: Osage County

     This category is usually tied so closely to Best Picture that the best thing to do this early in the game is throw together ten films that MIGHT be fighting it out for the top prize giving a little bit of an edge to movies with an action element.  That's pretty much what the buzz has done.
     I would also consider: The Butler, Foxcatcher, Labor Day, The Man of Steel, Nebraska, Oldboy, Pacific Rim, Prisoners, Rush, Snowpiercer, World War Z & The Young and Prodigious Spivet

  and

  Visual Effects

1. Gravity

2. Man of Steel

3. Elysium

4. Pacific Rim

5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

6. Star Trek: Into Darkness

7. The Great Gatsby

8. Oblivion

9. Iron Man 3

10.Oz, the Great and Powerful

     

     I won't say a whole lot here, I'll just give you my list.

1. Gravity

2. Man of Steel...Hard to argue with these two at this juncture.

3. Elysium...I REFUSE to argue with this one.

4. Snowpiercer...Am I the ONLY person Tilda is already giving shivers to?

5. Pacific Rim

6. World War Z...the promos are pretty amazing, am I right?

7. Star Trek: Into Darkness

8. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug...both of these franchises must be taken seriously here.

9. Europa Report...seems more likely than Gatsby, that's for damn sure.

10. Oz, the Great and Powerful

     And...whew...that's the Techs, post-Cannes edition.  Predictions will resume shortly with the six Genre categories. Just don't expect any profound wisdom about the shorts. If you have some, please share...

                                                                          Froggy

  Related articles: What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?, June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Aural Techs

June Oscar Buzz & Predictions - The Aural Techs

     Trying to predict the technical categories this early out is really a crap shoot.  For starters, the awards are more about the actual work in the actual film than who or what star is (or is perceived as being) overdue at the moment.  Of course, these days there are celebrity cinematographers, composers, even costumers, so sometimes you DO see "career achievement" nominations and wins.  In many of these categories, I'm just going to let the (minimal) buzz speak for itself, and in some I'll offer my alternate predictions.  By the time I update these in...August, maybe...I'll probably be ready to offer my alternate predictions in all categories, but I'm still getting a feel for an awards season that is just getting underway.  As always, buzz rankings will come first, followed where applicable by my thoughts.  For now, these are your four aural craft categories...

  Sound Editing
1. Gravity
2. Elysium
3. Man of Steel
4. The Monuments Men
5. Captain Phillips

6. Star Trek: Into Darkness
7. Pacific Rim
8. Iron Man 3
9. American Hustle
10. All is Lost
     This is a pretty good list for guesswork.  Iron Man 3 seems like something of an enormous long shot, but otherwise pretty good possibilities.  Sound Editing is about the creation of sound effects, primarily.  Science fiction and animation fare a little more strongly here than in Sound Mixing (and I'm a little shocked that no animated film is in the top ten buzz-wise), but generally both Sound Categories are populated with a total mish mash of prestige and blockbuster fare, and the top five are a pretty good mix.
     I would also strongly consider: The Counselor, Frozen, Inside Llewyn Davis, Monsters University, Only God Forgives, Prisoners, Snowpiercer, Twelve Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street & World War Z.

  Sound Mixing
1. Gravity
2. Inside Llewyn Davis
3. The Monuments Men
4. Elysium
5. Man of Steel

6. Captain Phillips
7. Star Trek: Into Darkness
8. Iron Man 3
9. World War Z
10. Black Nativity
     Another smart list (although again Iron Man 3 and even the Star Trek sequel seem unlikely).  Musicals and musically themed movies have a bit of leg up here by comparison to Sound Editing.  That's why Inside Llewyn Davis is so high on this list and absent on the other.  Again, a good of blend of arthouse, popcorn and hybrid is achieved.
     I would not ignore the possibilities of:  All Is Lost, the Counselor, Frozen, Monsters University, Only God Forgives, Pacific Rim, Rush, Snowpiercer, Twelve Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street


  Original Song
1. Out of the Furnace
2. Frozen
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. The Sapphires
5. The Great Gatsby
     Or at least, that's what the uninformed, infinitesimal buzz says.  If predicting most of the crafts is hopeless this time of year, that goes double for Original Song.  For the most part, we have no idea what films feature Original Songs, what they will sound like, or who will be writing and/or performing them.  I don't even know if all of the films above have songs that will qualify, although there is some pretty cool stuff on the Gatsby soundtrack.
     I would also keep an eye on:  August: Osage County, Black Nativity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Monsters University, Oz the Great and Powerful, Planes



  Original Score
1. The Monuments Men
2. Gravity
3. The Counselor
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Oldboy

6. Frozen
7. The Butler
8. Man of Steel
9. Saving Mr. Banks
10. World War Z
     Score is another sticky wicket for early prognosticators because the Music branch is VERY finicky when it comes to their rules about what qualifies as an original score and what doesn't.  However, the notoriety of certain composers (and the AMPAS's tendency to nominate many of the same artists again and again) DO make this one of the few tech categories that I feel like tossing out some ideas about this early in the game:

1. The Monuments Men - Alexander Desplat (0 wins out of 5 nominations)...It's hard to argue that one of the most popular working film composers scoring one of the most obvious "Oscar movies" in years seems like a slam dunk for a nomination, if not a win.
2. Man of Steel - Hans Zimmer (1 win out of 9 nominations)...It also seems impossible that after being nominated this many times, the Academy doesn't plan on giving at least one more statuette to Mr. Zimmer.  This seems like a perfect vehicle for something memorable.
3. Snowpiercer - Marco Beltrani (0 wins out of 2 nominations)...Call it a hunch.  The man seems due his third nod, but he could also get one for World War Z.  I just have this feeling that Snowpiercer is going to be something special all the way around.
4. Gravity - Steven Price (never nominated)...Everyone seems to expect that Mr. Price (who has only scored Attack the Block previously) is going to be THAT break out nominee this year.  It feels like they know something I don't.  I WILL say, however, that a film that is largely about a woman stuck in space walk by herself would provide plenty of opportunity to highlight a strong score to fill the...um...vacuum...sorry, I had to...of empty moments.
5. The Wolf of Wall Street - Howard Shore (2 wins out of 3 nominations in this category)...This is likely to be one of the big awards players this year and Mr. Shore certainly has the Academy's attention, but its not like he's overdue...

6. Twelve Years a Slave - Hans Zimmer...Of course, Man of Steel is not the only perfectly good opportunity that Mr. Zimmer has to wow the Academy this year.
7. Monsters University - Randy Newman (0 wins out of 8 nominations)...Yes, you read that correctly.  Although Mr. Newman has two Oscars for Original Song, he has never won for Score.  His win to nomination ratio in this category makes him arguably the most overdue for a win of any of these composers.
8. Oz, the Great and Powerful - Danny Elfman (0 wins out of 4 nominations)...Talk about iconic multi-nominated composers with no wins...but will this tepidly received picture do it for him?
9. Saving Mr. Banks - Thomas Newman (0 wins out of 4 nominations)...This movie is already making my teeth hurt but I could certainly see this as a possible area of recognition and again...no wins yet.
10. World War Z - Marco Beltrani...Most pundits, I'm sure, would expect Mr. Beltrani to have a better shot with this film than Snowpiercer, but if I can't indulge in a little wishful thinking in June, why bother?
     Don't count out: All Is Lost - Alex Ebert, The Counselor - Daniel Pemberton, Frozen - Christophe Beck, Oldboy - Bruce Hornsby, Rush - Hans Zimmer

     And that's it for today.  I'll be back soon with the six Visual Techs...Froggy

  Related Articles: What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?

Water and Earth Make "Mud"

      I still haven't seen writer/director Jeff Nichols debut feature Shotgun Stories, but trust me that it will feature in a future Rewind series.  It's already on the list.  I fell a little bit in love with his work back in 2011 with his sophomore effort Take Shelter as anyone who read the Best of 2011 series should easily be able to attest.  Among other honors, that film's star Michael Shannon received Best Actor of the Year.

     Now it's 2013, and Nichols is back for a third time with a film that is being hailed as the vessel of Matthew McConaughey's best performance EVER.  My anticipation was so high that I was a little scared to go and see the picture.  I was going to be SOOO hurt if it failed to live up to my expectations, much less my hopes.  After all, I never see a five star film THIS early in the year.  I shouldn't have worried.  Nichols has pulled it off once again.  His film making retains all the raw energy of his previous effort while becoming slightly more polished with the wisdom of experience (and quite probably more secure backing).

     The story is a total departure from Take Shelter.  Whereas that film was surreal and trippy, Mud (like its title character and his namesake) is rooted firmly in the dirt of consensual reality.  Every character is a study in desperation, from the father whose world is crumbling around him (Ray McKinnon) to the mother who is removing the bricks that support it because they form her prison (Sarah Paulson).  We see it in the eyes of Ellis's best friend (Jacob Lofland) and mirrored in those of his sex crazed uncle (Michael Shannon).  We see it in every reaction of the man who was Mud's surrogate father (Sam Shepard). Reese Witherspoon seems to embody desperation in this film the way that Carey Mulligan became sadness in Shame.  I hope that this leads to some better casting opportunities for this talented actress.  This entire ensemble is amazing, utterly believable, never missing a note.

     The film's true lead is child actor Tye Sheridan, and he gives what will surely be remembered at the very least as one of the year's best juvenile performances.  As Ellis, he is caught between all possible worst case scenarios.  As he watches his family disintegrate, he wishes desperately to find some evidence in the world of the power of love.  Perhaps the greatest compliment that can be given to Mr. Sheridan is that he brought limited experience in craft or life to bear upon a difficult role and held his own squarely opposite a seasoned actor finally coming into his own in a way he never quite has before.

     Which brings us squarely to Matthew McConaughey and the role of Mud.  Mud, as a character, is almost a primal creature, far more tied to the spiritual world AND the natural world than the world of civilization.  He sees things with both a child's optimism and an adult's pragmatism, and it is a sad wisdom that he brings to bear.  McConaughey brings all of that to the table, and more.  Add in an intelligence that shines through a film of ignorance in a way that proves itself to be well beyond mere cunning.  Add in natural sex appeal that only enhances the feral qualities.  Talk about an actor FINALLY beginning to live up to the iceberg of potential that the charisma and charming drawl were only the tip of.

     In fact, in Mr. Nichols and Mr. McConaughey's hands the character of Mud becomes archetypal, a symbol for the land that spawned him and the way of life that is dying upon it.  Mud is what you get where the water meets the land, but Mud finds that those he gave his love to those who have used it unwisely and created a world in which he no longer has any place.  I don't know if Dallas Buyer's Club will make everyone forget about this performance by Awards time or not, but I feel certain it will be one of my top ten lead acting turns this year.  

     IF Mr. McConaughey becomes a serious contender for his work here, I could see Screenplay or Picture nods become possibilities as well although the proposition seems more worthy than likely at this point in the game. If the film WERE to break into technical recognition, my bet would easily be upon the camera work of cinematographer Adam Stone whose work here is entirely different from what he did in Take Shelter. In that film the world seemed utterly bleak, desolate and unreal.  The landscape of Mud is almost too real, creating an environment that is utterly alive, active, and often dangerous.  It must be said, however, that production values were noticeably high across the board.  This is only the second film 2013 film that I've reviewed, but it ABSOLUTELY deserves...5 of 5 stars.

  Related articles:  Senna, Take 13 (Take Shelter review), Innkeepers of Blood and Shame (Shame review),
Rewind Series - 2010 Edition, Best of 2011 - The Techs, The Performances: Part 1, The Performances: Part 2,  Writers and Directors, Best Picture (concluded)

Want to know more about the members of the cast? Click to view their IMDB profile:
Matthew McConaughey, Tye Sheridan, Jacob Lofland, Reese Witherspoon, Sarah Paulson, Ray McKinnon, Sam Shepard, Michael Shannon, Joe Don Baker.

2013 Awards Preview - Postscript: Predictions

     Of course, nobody knows anything yet, but I can't resist doing this just for fun.  I haven't even started tracking 86th Oscar Buzz in any significant way yet.  This is just going with my gut. That being said, five of the eventual Best Picture nominees from last year were in my preview series predictions top ten and I made those a couple of weeks earlier.  Three of the other four were in my alternates.  Amour is the only possibility that seemed to really escape me, but how often does a non-English language film actually crack the Best Picture category?  Let's see if I can do any better this year.  Bear in mind, the last couple of alternate slots in any category are usually going to be things I would LIKE to see happen.  Some are a little wild...

  Best Picture
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Nebraska
5. Fruitvale Station
6. The Monuments Men
7. Elysium
8. Before Midnight (ala Toy Story 3 and the expanded field effect)
9. The Butler
10. The Counselor

11. American Hustle
12. The Zero Theorem
13. The Immigrant
14. The Great Gatsby
15. Labor Day
16. The Rover
17. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
18. To The Wonder
19. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
20. The East
  But don't rule out: All Is Lost, August: Osage County, Captain Phillips, The Fifth Estate, Foxcatcher, Grace of Monico, Gravity, Her, Kill Your Darlings, Midnight's Children, Mud, Only God Forgives, The Place Beyond the Pines, Serena, Snowpiercer, Trance, World War Z

  Best Director
1. Steve McQueen - Twelve Years a Slave
2. Martin Scorcese - The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Alexander Payne - Nebraska
4. Ryan Coogler - Fruitvale Station'
5. The Coen Brothers - Inside Llewyn Davis

6. Neil Blomkamp - Elysium
7. Lee Daniels - The Butler
8. George Clooney - The Monuments Men
9. Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
10. Terence Malick - To The Wonder
  Other possibilities: David O Russell - American Hustle, Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips, Ridley Scott - The Couselor, Bill Condon - The Fifth Estate, Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher, Baz Luhrman - The Great Gatsby, James Grey - The Immigrant, Jason Reitman - Labor Day, Deepa Mehta - Midnight's Children, Jeff Nichols - Mud, Nicholas Winding Refn - Only God Forgives, David Michod - The Rover, Susanne Bier - Serena, Jean-Pierre Juenet - The Young and Prodigious Spivet, Terry Gillem - The Zero Theorem

  Best Actor
1. Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station
2. Michael Fassbender - The Counselor
3. Chiawatel Ejiofor - Twelve Years a Slave
4. Robert Redford - All Is Lost
5. Bruce Dern - Nebraska

6. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Forest Whitaker - The Butler
9. Matthew MacConaughey - Mud
10. Christoph Waltz - The Zero Theorem
  Or...Casey Affleck - Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Bradley Cooper - American Hustle, Dennis Quaid - At Any Price, Ethan Hawke - Before Midnight, Toby Jones - Berberian Sound Studio, Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips, Matt Damon - Elysium, Bradley Cooper - The Fifth Estate, Mads Mickelson - The Hunt, Jeremy Renner - The Immigrant, Daniel Radcliffe - Kill Your Darlings, Ryan Gosling - Only God Forgives, Leonardo DiCaprio - The Great Gatsby, Joaquin Phoenix - Her, Idris Elba - Mandela: TheLong Walk To Freedom, Ryan Gosling - The Place Beyond the Pines, Christian Bale - Out of the Furnace, Colin Firth - The Railway Man, Guy Pearce - The Rover, Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks

  Best Actress
1. Nicole Kidman - Grace of Monaco
2. Jessica Chastain - The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers
3. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler
4. Carey Mulligan - The Great Gatsby
5. Rooney Mara - Ain't Them Bodies Saints

6. Naomie Watts - Diana
7. Sandra Bullock - Gravity
8. Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant
9. Julie Delpy - Before Midnight
10. Susan Sarandan - The Company You Keep
     I also thought about: Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle, Meryl Streep - August: Osage County, Rooney Mara - Her, Saoirse Ronan - How I Live Now, Mia Wasikowska - Madame Bovary, Naomi Harris - Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom, Shaillene Woodley - The Spectacular Now

  Best Supporting Actor
1. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis
2. Robert DeNiro - American Hustle
3. Brad Pitt - The Counselor
4. Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher
5. Ewan McGregor - August: Osage County

6. Michael Fassbender - Twelve Years a Slave
7. Robin Williams - The Butler
8. Matthew MacConaughey - The Wolf of Wall Street
9. Will Forte - Nebraska
10. Ezra Miller - Madame Bovary
  Also: Ben Foster - Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Jeremy Renner - American Hustle, Chris Cooper - August: Osage County, Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County, John Cusack - The Butler, Michael Fassbender - Frank, Tim Roth - Grace of Monaco, Tobey McGuire - The Great Gatsby, Joachin Phoenix - The Immigrant, Justin Timberlake - Inside Llewyn Davis, Matt Damon - The Monuments Men, Jean Dujardin - The Monuments Men, John Goodman - The Monuments Men, Casey Affleck - Out of the Furnace, Bradley Cooper - The Place Beyond the Pines, Scoot McNairy - The Rover, Robert Pattinson - The Rover, Paul Giamatti - Twelve Years a Slave, Brad Pitt - Twelve Years a Slave, Ben Whishaw - The Zero Theorem

  Best Supporting Actress
1. Jane Fonda - The Butler
2. Viola Davis - The Disappearence of Eleanor Rigby: Hers or His, not sure which
3. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
4. Cate Blanchett - The Monuments Men
5. Alfre Woodard - Twelve Years a Slave

6. Amy Adams - American Hustle
7. Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station
8. Catherine Keener - Captain Phillips
9. Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Ellen Page - The East
  And then you have: Juliette Lewis - August: Osage County, Melissa Leo - The Butler, Parker Posey - Grace of Monaco, Samantha Morten - Her, Michelle Pfeiffer - Malavita, Kristen Scott Thomas - Only God Forgives, Zoe Saldana - Out of the Furnace, Quvenzhane Wallis - Twelve Years a Slave, Judy Davis - The Young and Prodigious Spivet

  Adapted Screenplay
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Before Midnight
3. The Butler
4. The Monuments Men
5. Much Ado About Nothing

6. The Great Gatsby
7. Prince Avalanche
8. Midnight's Children
9. Snowpiercer
10. Man of Steel
  In the running: The Fifth Estate, The Spectacular Now, Two Faces of January

  Original Screenplay
1. Inside Llewyn Davis
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Fruitvale Station
4. Nebraska
5. The Immigrant

6. The Counselor
7. Elysium
8. American Hustler
9. The Zero Theorem
10. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
  Also keeping an eye on: All Is Lost, Captain Phillips, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His and/or Hers, The East, Foxcatcher, Frank, Grace of Monaco, Kill Your Darlings, Mud, Only God Forgives, Her, The Place Beyond the Pines, The Rover, Trance, The Young and Prodigious Spivet, World War Z

  Best Cinematography
1. The Monuments Men
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
4. Nebraska
5. To The Wonder

6. Elysium
7. The Zero Theorem
8. The Wolf of Wall Street
9. All Is Lost
10. Only God Forgives

  Best Editing
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Elysium
5. The Monuments Men

6. Fruitvale Station
7. The Butler
8. Man of Steel
9. The East
10. The Counselor

  Best Production Design
1. The Monuments Men
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Elysium
4. Twelve Years a Slave
5. The Butler

6. Oblivion
7. Grace of Monaco
8. Kill Your Darlings
9. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
10. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

  Best Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. Grace of Monaco
3. The Butler
4. Oz the Great and Powerful
5. The Immigrant

6. Diana
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Twelve Years a Slave
9. The Monuments Men
10. The Rover

  Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
1. The Butler
2. Oz the Great and Powerful
3. World War Z

4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Grace of Monaco
6. Only God Forgives

  Best Original Score
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Man of Steel
3. The Monuments Men
4. World War Z
5. Oldboy

6. Oz the Great and Powerful
7. Snowpiercer
8. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
9. Elysium
10. The Zero Theorem

  Best Original Song
1. Was there an Original Song in Sapphires?
2. Planes
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Oz the Great and Powerful
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

  Best Sound Editing
1. Elysium
2. Man of Steel
3. The Monuments Men
4. All is Lost
5. Only God Forgives

6. World War Z
7. Oz the Great and Powerful
8. Snowpiercer
9. Twelve Years a Slave
10. Captain Phillips

  Best Sound Mixing
1. The Monuments Men
2. Man of Steel
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Elysium
5. World War Z

6. Only God Forgives
7. All is Lost
8. Twelve Years a Slave
9. The Wolf of Wall Street
10. Captain Phillips

  Best Visual Effects
1. Elysium
2. Man of Steel
3. World War Z
4. Snowpiercer
5. The Europa Report

6. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
7. Gravity
8. The Great Gatsby
9. All is Lost
10. Oblivion

  Best Documentary Feature
1. Stories We Tell
2. The Act of Killing
3. Blood Brother
4. We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks
5. Room 237

  Best Foreign Language Film
1. Child's Pose
2. The Hunt
3. Gloria
4. The Past
5. Le Grande Bellazza

6. Closed Curtain
7. Venus in Fur
8. Goodbye to Language
9. Attilla Marcel
10. Mood Indigo

  Best Animated Feature
1. Frozen
2. Planes
3. The Wind Rises
4. Monsters University
5. Hell and Back

6. Epic
7. Ernest and Celestine
8. Leo the Lion
9. Despicable Me Too
10. The Croods

     Related Articles:  Upcoming 2013 Award Season Preview: Part One: Pulpy Players, Part Two: Specialties That Might Spellbind, Part Three: Little Pics That Might Could, Part Four: The Usual Suspects, Part 5 - Because I Said So, 2012 Preview Postscript - Predictions

"Zero"ing in on a "Dark" Decade

     According to conventional wisdom, the two things that you should never discuss in polite company are politics and religion.  These also happen to be the two topics at the very heart of Zero Dark Thirty, director Katherine Bigelow and screen writer Mark Boal's controversial follow-up to Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker.  Not that The Movie Frog is afraid to be impolite (nope, I'm a pretty ruthlessly sarcastic amphibian), but I do have a lot of readers in the Middle East and other areas of the world where some of the the subjects in this film might be a little touchy.
     So, to get started, let me just say that this Movie Frog graduated from a high school in which my graduating class had members from all over the world, over fifty nations of origin represented.  By the time I was a teenager I had friends of all ethnic, religious, and political backgrounds.  I feel that growing up in this sort of environment was good for me because it taught me to appreciate mankind for the great variety that makes it up.  I cover English language cinema exhaustively, but I also try to cover a strong sampling of films  from all over the world, with an eye towards what they teach us about cultures and artistic traditions that are, well, somewhat foreign to most Americans.
     That being said, Zero Dark Thirty is very much about the United States and the American psyche in the decade following 9/11 and can only be analyzed from that standpoint.  Maya (Jessica Chastain)'s journey through the film is symbolic of the journey that we all took in many ways, to both our shame and honor.  Little in life is truly black and white, and there is darkness in even the purest of hearts.  If my analysis of this film proves offensive to anyone, I apologize in advance.  My understanding of certain situations may well be skewed or limited by my cultural perspective, as may yours.  Seeking to grasp this fact and trying to gain insight into OTHER perspectives is the only way that we can ever truly make the world a better, safer place to live in.  After all, we are ALL only human.
     Bigelow and Boal are carving out an impressive niche for their collaborations, producing two of the most profound artistic explorations of America's modern foreign policy in any medium.  Far from cheap propaganda, their work focuses instead upon individuals dropped into the middle of horrific situations and the effects wrought upon their psyches over time.  As with The Hurt Locker, I didn't entirely "get" Zero Dark Thirty until the very end, when I finally saw these effects clearly in a simple, silent scene.  From the film's inception when we are presented with a jumble of 9/11 news reports presented with the screen in darkness, rooting us firmly in the time of the action, but literally floundering in the dark surrounded by confusing noise.
     The movie's single Oscar win (or tie) for Sound Editing does not dole out nearly enough love for the production team, who have put together a tight, precise package.  Sound is indeed an important element in the film, expertly designed and implemented.  This shows in everything from the calculated breaks in the silence of the raid to the news reports that play in the background to keep our time line oriented (a technique employed much more subtly here than in Killing Them Softly, but Zero is a much more subtle film).  
      Sound is also used cleverly during phone conversations between the C.I.A. home offices and agents in the field abroad.  A chaotic din in the desert background punctuates the mayhem that is never too far away, while the quiet on the other end of the line is demonstrative of the imposed illusion of safety and order that exists in America.  As always, Alexandre Desplat produces an effective score that underscores the scenes emotionally without becoming maudlin.
      The film is quite visually impressive as well.  The Make-Up and Hairstyling team make excellent use of facial hair in much the same way that I mentioned background noise being used in phone conversations.  In America, the character Dan (Jason Clarke) is clean shaven as he tries to return to "civilization" whereas he had worn a bushy beard in the field.  When he is in Kuwait, he sports a beard, but a more neatly trimmed one.  The editing of the film (which earned William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor an Oscar nod) is marvelously timed; all of the film's shocks truly startle the viewer.  Particularly effective are the cuts between night vision and regular lensing during the raid, creating a surreal atmosphere to the film that mirrors the mind set of the disbelieving soldiers.  Cinematographer Greig Frasier also turns in impressive work, framing scenes of beauty and desolation with equal ability.
     The film's supporting cast give unanimously capable performances. Kyle Chandler, Jennifer Ehle, and Joel Edgerton are all particularly memorable, and James Gandolfini makes the most of very limited screen time in an uncharacteristically subdued performance.  The real stand-out, however, is Jason Clarke.  In Dan, he has embodied a character who is both the brute and the scholar, the man and the monster, all in one neatly tied up (and physically imposing) package.
     Zero Dark Thirty belongs, however, to Jessica Chastain, an actress still relatively new to film (although she already has quite a history on the Broadway stage), but able to convey more by the tilt of her head while in three quarter profile (her back ALMOST turned to the camera) than most actors can in a straight on close-up.  In two years on the big screen, she has already secured two Academy Award nominations (the first for The Help), playing two characters who could not be more different.  As Maya, she presents us with a complex individual who is also a symbol for ALL Americans, especially ones of her generation whose entire adult lives were rung in by the sound of post-9/11 funereal bells, who faced the scariest period in anyone's life during a time when EVERYONE in this nation was being run by fear.
     This picture was originally titled Kill Bin Laden, and I actually think that the name is more apt.  A friend that I talk about movies with on a regular basis disagreed with me when I told him this, stating that Zero Dark Thirty has more finesse.  However, this is Maya's film and the girl is not about finesse or niceties.  She has to fight everyone every step of the way and all of her best lines include the word "fuck":  "How do you like Pakistan so far?" " It's kind of fucked up"; "I'm the motherfucker who found the place."  Regardless of its rough directness, the title "Kill Bin Laden" is more to the point and sums up the whole purpose of Maya's adult life.  She is asked what else she has done in the role she was recruited for straight out of high school and her reply is "Nothing.  I've done nothing else."
     The film caught a lot of flack in the press because of the use of torture by American agents against the detainees.  It was accused on the one side of advocating torture, on the other of demonizing American agents just following their orders.  It is easy to attack it from both political poles because it doesn't really make judgments either way.  Torture is presented in the film as something that Maya must learn to accept to accomplish the daunting task set before her.  As the scene where Jessica (Jennifer Ehle) is killed after lightening up on safety protocols to put a potential ally at ease aptly demonstrates, these people are playing a game where niceness earns you death.  Still, utilizing these extreme methods IS shown to weigh greatly on the men and women who must do so.  Dan may start the film out appearing to be a hard-ass with a heart of stone, but we slowly see that he retains a connection to his humanity through his interaction with the monkeys kept on base.  When the monkeys are killed, he is actually unable to continue in his role in the field, returning home before he loses his soul entirely to the whole unpleasant business.
     Humanity is hard to come by in this crusade, and impossible to hang on to.  The one time that Jessica gets Maya to relax her guard, the cafe they are in is bombed, chaos rushing in to wipe the illusory pleasantries out of their lives, much as every new counter-strike to the war on terror drove home the fact that the world was not as safe a place as many of us in the West had come to believe.  Maya tells Jessica that she's not "that girl who fucks", and she's not.  She's the avatar of man's far more carnal impulses: the blood lust borne of dreams destroyed.  After the compound has been discovered, Maya writes the number of days during which nothing is done about it on her supervisor's window as a daily expression of frustration and impatience for these desires to be sated, for some degree of sanity to return to a culture that cannot sleep or see the world through sympathetic eyes until our collective boogey man has been vanquished.
     (I don't think spoilers are possible in a film where the ending is such current news, but here is your alert anyway - Froggy)
     After Bin Laden has been killed, the soldier who shot him wanders back downstairs in shock muttering "I shot the third floor guy", utterly disbelieving that his finger had just ended the worldwide manhunt that had kept  the world in suspense for nearly half of his life.  I remember feeling a little stunned and disbelieving myself when I first heard the news.  Maya's reaction is even more telling as the girl that no one could shut up for twelve years is reduced to saying only one word throughout the last ten minutes of the film.  She silently watches the chopper carrying the body approach in awe and wonder, then approaches the body bag with a unique blend of trepidation, excitement, and distaste like a child unwrapping some horrible but irresistible Christmas present.  This quest has been her obsession, but once it is finished she doesn't know who she is without it, and isn't sure she's ready to go back to a "normal" life knowing what she has allowed herself to become in order to "Kill Bin Laden".  As she finally allows herself to feel again it should be a catharsis, but instead she feels drained of both her humanity and the cause to which she martyred it.  Easily...5 of 5 stars.

Related Articles: Killing Them Affordably (Killing Them Softly review), "The Help" review
     

Final 85th Oscar Winner Predictions

     This doesn't really need a preface, does it?  Cross your fingers (or webbed feet, or whatever) and check out my live tweets tonight during the ceremony.

  Best Picture: Argo
         alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
         wild card: Amour
          should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

  Best Director: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
          alternate: David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
          wild card: Michael Haneke - Amour
          should have been nominated:  Christopher Nolan - Dark Knight Returns (sorry, Mr. Affleck, you were great)

  Best Actor: um...Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
          alternate:  Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
          wild card:  Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
          should have been nominated:  Richard Gere - Arbitrage

  Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
          alternate: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
          wild card: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
          should have been nominated: Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone

  Best Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
          alternate: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
          wild card: Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
          should have been nominated: Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild

  Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
          alternate: Sally Field - Lincoln
          wild card: Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
          should have been nominated: Salma Hayek - Savages

  Best Original Screenplay: Amour
          alternate: Django Unchained
          wild card: Zero Dark Thirty
          should have been nominated: Looper

  Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
          alternate: Lincoln
          wild card: Silver Linings Playbook
          should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

  Best Animated Feature:  Wreck-It Ralph
          alternate: Frankenweenie
          wild card: Brave
          should have been nominated: A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's
        Graham Chapman

  Best Documentary Feature: Searching For Sugarman
           alternate: Gatekeepers
           wild card: 5 Broken Cameras
           should have been nominated: Queen of Versailles

  Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
           alternate: No
           wild card: War Witch
           should have been nominated: Rust and Bone

  Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
          alternate: Skyfall
          wild card: Lincoln
          should have been nominated: Beasts of the Southern Wild

  Best Editing: Argo
          alternate: Zero Dark Thirty
          wild card: Life of Pi
          should have been nominated: Cloud Atlas

  Best Production Design: Anna Karenina
           alternate: Les Miserables
           wild card: Life of Pi
           should have been nominated: Cloud Atlas

  Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
            alternate: Les Miserables
            wild card: Mirror Mirror
            should have been nominated: A Royal Affair

  Best Make-Up and Hairstyling: Les Miserables
             alternate: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
             wild card: Hitchcock
             should have been nominated: Cloud Atlas

  Best Score: Life of Pi
              alternate: Skyfall
              wild card: Lincoln
              should have been nominated: Beasts of the Southern Wild

  Best Song: Skyfall - "Skyfall"
              alternate: Les Miserables - "Suddenly"
              wild card: Ted - "Everybody Needs a Best Friend"
              should have been nominated: numerous numbers from Lawless & Django Unchained

  Best Sound Editing: Skyfall
               alternate: Life of Pi
               wild card: Argo
               should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Returns

  Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
                alternate: Skyfall
                wild card: Argo
                should have been nominated: The Impossible

  Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
                 alternate: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
                 wild card: Marvel's Avengers

  Short Film Animated: Paperman
                 alternate: Head Over Heels
                 wild card: Adam and Dog
         
  Short Film Live-Action: Buzkashi Boys
                  alternate: Curfew
                  wild card: Death of a Shadow
 
  Short Film Documentary: Innocente
                  alternate: Open Heart
                  wild card: Mondays at Racine
          

The Habit: A Much Expected Returning

     Yeah, everybody loved director Peter Jackson's The Lord of the Rings trilogy.  It elevated the fantasy genre to new heights and raised the bar on special effects forever.  I can't imagine that anyone was all that surprised when it was announced that he was going to follow the series up with another Middle Earth adaptation, this time of The Hobbit.  Part One (An Unexpected Journey) was pretty much exactly what I was expecting.  Your expectations should be roundly met as well, unless you were expecting The Lord of the Rings trilogy.
     Many have criticized this film for being less "adult" than its predecessors, and it is.  In its defense, however, the source novel was aimed at a much younger audience.  Jackson and crew could not have been true to the material without incorporating such a tonal shift.  There was some groan worthy, juvenile humor (dwarves falling in doorway, a goblin king falling from the sky right on cue), and some of the sing song scenes made me squirm in my seat in anticipation for their conclusions.  The dishwashing sequence is particularly tiresome.  The very survival of the entire band of dwarfs stretched believability in a couple of scenes that would have involved a death in a less family friendly story.  None of these "precious" touches kept me from enjoying the film for what it was, and they may well have increased the enjoyment of many younger viewers.
     The other, possibly more valid complaint is that The Hobbit was expanded from a two part adaptation to a trilogy more for financial considerations than artistic ones.  I'm sure there is at least a grain of truth to this, and much of the first half of An Unexpected Journey felt a little padded.  However, the film does end in sort of a perfect point in the story, one that creates a fully developed and completed narrative arc within the greater framework.  There was no need for this film to be quite as long as it was, however.  Some fat could easily have been trimmed from the first hour (or at least held in reserve for the Blu-ray Bonus Edition, when viewers can impose an intermission).
     Now that we have addressed the movie's alleged shortcomings, we can talk about some of the undeniably excellent elements.  We all know that Captain Jackson runs a tight ship, and technically the film is virtually flawless.  The visual effects may be a little less innovative than the first time around but are no less impressive.  I actually think that the team has improved upon its previous techniques for creating the illusion of height differential among Middle Earth's myriad humanoid species.  Gandalf looks like a virtual giant near the hobbits and dwarfs, who walk under archways with ease that he must duck in order to pass. Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton & R. Christopher White are to be congratulated on their well deserved Oscar nomination.
     Likewise, Production Designer Dan Hennah and Set Decorator Simon Bright should sleep well at night, secure in the knowledge that their nomination was well deserved.  The sets were absolutely stunning and made me really want to visit New Zealand.  While I might question the entire Make-Up and Hairstyling nomination list this year, the work done here is certainly more deserving than at least one of its current competitors (I haven't seen Les Miserables yet).  Andrew Lesnie's cinematography, Howard Shore's musical composition, and the work done by the sound team are all also highly worthy of praise.
     The acting in this film is uniformly strong.  In the early scenes of the film, I had my doubts about Martin Freeman's ability to make Bilbo as engaging a protagonist as Frodo was, but he grew on me considerably as the story unfolded.  The actors who play the dwarfs function well as an ensemble (Peter Hambleton being a bit of a stand out).  The greatest treat, however, was the return of old friends like Hugo Weaving, Cate Blanchett, Christopher Lee, and especially Ian McKellen in the roles they have now been associated with for years.  Even Elijah Wood makes a brief cameo in the prologue.
     If the film drags just a bit at the beginning, the last hour more than makes up for it.  The riddling contest is worth the price of admission, with Andy Serkis's Gollum continuing to prove that motion capture work can have a soul.  The chase through the Goblin Kingdom is equally fantastic and proved incredibly entertaining.  The film ends in a perfect mini-resolution of sorts, and (thanks to smart directorial choices like reserving the image of Smaug in his full glory for later installments) leaves the viewer hungry for more.  Family friendly fare?  Certainly.  Some of the smartest, most well made family fare you are likely to find at the theater this year.  4 of 5 stars.

Related Articles: Oscar Winners Predictions & Buzz:  Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Finishing Touch Techs (Editing & Visual Effects)

"Lincoln" Perks

     Lights rise on the nation's sixteenth President sitting and speaking with two black soldiers.  He asks them questions in a tone that is patient, kind, and just a little paternal.  One soldier is shamelessly servile, almost pandering in a way that irritated one friend of mine, making him feel as if his race was represented as being too worshipful of Lincoln.  The other soldier, though, was hard on the president, asking him difficult questions, many that Abe was unprepared to answer without more thought.  Two white soldiers march up and seem a little dismissive of their "compatriots of color" (if you will).  Lincoln asks the new arrivals if they can recite what he said at Gettysburg and the boys try to stumble through it, but Lincoln ends up having to help them with the first few lines before sending everyone on their way.  As the soldier's walk off, the one who had given Lincoln a hard time can be heard finishing the speech, effortlessly and word for word.  It is obvious that while he continues to hold the President accountable for upholding them, the words themselves he holds in a certain reverence.  So begins Lincoln, setting the tone for all that is to follow.  It is a film that is full of big ideas, and gives you much to ponder.  It avoids becoming TOO ponderous, however, because it is also a movie with a big heart, kept under tight wraps, but leaking little golden veins of sentimentality.
     The intellectual meat of the picture (and there is a lot, questions in conundrums in ethical puzzles) must undeniably be accredited to screenwriter Tony Kushner's rather inspired script.  This is only Mr. Kushner's second screenplay (he also collaborated with Spielberg on Munich), but he was already well known as a playwright because of the two Angels in America plays (which are amazing, maybe I'll review the excellent HBO adaptation in a later article).  Here he tells a story of great men, fighting battles of great import, but without cleaning it all up to make it more palatable.  It feels more history than mythology in a way that movies about beloved historical figures rarely do.  This was a man who had to compromise and had to occasionally bend his own ethical principals in a microcosmic manner to maintain the path to his goal in the bigger picture.  Lincoln is a pensive, talky film, but one that has worthwhile things to say.
     Steven Spielberg works best when his tone is respectable but flirting with cheese.  Sometimes he flirts heavily (Raiders, ET), sometimes he's a little more subtle (Close Encounters, Saving Private Ryan) and every great once in a while he's able to keep his heart in check enough to be really, really coy about it (Schindler's List, and now Lincoln).  Spielberg is like a great conductor here.  He assembled the best orchestral team you could ask for, was given a great composition to lead them through and then weaves the sounds together like the seasoned master that he is when at his best.
     It is almost a given at this point that Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win an Oscar for Lincoln.  Loathe as I am to go along with awards that were practically bestowed months ahead of time based on "brand name" alone, I have to admit that he's one of the favored contenders in The Froggies when I get to the Best of 2012 series in a couple of months.  It's an amazing performance, in which this true master thespian completely transforms into the man he portrays.  Great attention has obviously been given to every aspect of what he does onscreen:  the accent, the posture, every movement of the muscles around his eyes.  He takes Abraham Lincoln, the most loved and hated American figure of his day, and makes him so affable and funny even among those who despise him.  At the same time you can never look at the man without seeing the weight he feels upon his shoulders and his soul.
     I admit, I am a bit biased in the following assessment.  I love Sally Field.  But I think that if I were entirely objective, I would still love her performance in this picture.  I can think of no other actress better suited for the sort of high melodrama inherent in the character of Mary Todd Lincoln.  Her Mary is a woman of such simultaneous fragility and strength that she seems almost surreal, but you absolutely believe in her.  There is this one party scene where her and Tommy Lee Jones go at it that is one of the real high lights of the film for me.
     Speaking of Mr. Jones, he is having a great year.  He may have gotten famous for playing tough guys, but it is films like No Country For Old Men, Hope Springs, and now Lincoln in which he really shines, playing tough guys who are only tough because they must be to protect their more tender, secret hearts.  I really think that his work in those three films may be his best ever for me.  This actor is proving to be like a fine wine, and he excels in roles that require wisdom and maturity.  His portrayal of Thaddeus Stevens boasts plenty of both.
     In a year of impressive ensemble pieces, Lincoln is easily among the best.  David Strathairn is marvelously officious.  James Spader makes incredibly good use of his screen time as a despicable fellow working for the good guys, partnered ably by John Hawkes.  Hal Holbrook, Jackie Earle Haley, Walton Goggins...I could go on.  I do feel that Joseph Gordon-Levitt's role as Lincoln's son was less well developed than he could have been.  Only in his scenes do I feel as if the drama gets a little less restrained.  I wouldn't call his work weak, but it is one of the film's aspects that bears the least strength.
   The production team on Lincoln did a fantastic job.  All elements are impressive to the active observer, yet far from obtrusive to the passive one.  The picture received six craft nods, and Joanna Johnston (Costume Design), Michael Kahn (Editing), John Williams (Score), Rick Carter (Production Design) & Jim Erickson (Set Decoration, also covered under the Production Design nomination) and the Sound Mixing team of Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom & Ronald Judkins all made award worthy contributions to this film.  I'm still confounded that the excellent make-up work went unrewarded.
     What really blew me away unexpectedly was the work of master cinematographer Janusz Kaminski.  I never expected a film that was so packed with scenes of deals being struck in cigar smoke filled back rooms could be the sort of visually stimulating experience that this movie was.  The use of light in Lincoln is brilliant, the use of the shadows that abound in a world where the only light comes from candles, lanterns, and the sun.  Even the aforementioned cigar smoke (as it filters through candlelight and frames the characters hazily) is used in each shot to glorious effect.  There is a dream sequence early on in the picture that may be the most beautiful imagery I have seen on film this year.  This is simply one of the most brilliantly shot films of 2012.  I should never have underestimated it so quickly.
     Which, in truth, is kind of how I feel about the whole project.  I was very, very slow to begin taking Lincoln seriously in this Oscar race.  It never cracked my top ten Best Picture contenders until it previewed to great acclaim.  Even then, it took a long time to creep up that list.  You must forgive me.  War Horse was like the unattractive love child of Shenandoah & Old Yeller by comparison to this piece.    Spielberg has come back with a true vengeance, giving us one of his best, a film that never goes in for the big cry.  Instead it bombards the mind, and then plucks gently at the heartstrings with a surgeon's pinpoint precision. 5 of 5 stars.
   
Related posts:  The Sound Hope Sparks (Hope Springs review), Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz: Of Snubs and Triumphs (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing & Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Finishing Touch Techs (Editing & Visual Effects)

Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz - Finishing Touch Techs

      After these, I'm gonna take a few days to update my buzz before I tackle the genre categories and screenplays.  In the meantime, I'm sure that I'll pop out a few movie reviews and catch up to my viewing a bit.  As always, the buzz rankings come first, with former rankings in parenthesis.  My thoughts and predictions come slinking along after.

Best Editing
  1.(2) Zero Dark Thirty - Dylan Tichenor & William Goldenberg
  2.(1) Argo - William Goldenberg
  3.(3) Lincoln - Michael Kahn
  4.(6) Life of Pi - Tim Squyres
  5.(8) Silver Linings Playbook - Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers
     I currently see things a little bit differently...
  1. Argo - I have expected this to be the season of William Goldenberg in the Editing category for quite some time now, and thus far my theory is bearing out.  The difference in buzz between his two films is arbitrary, so I'm going to go with the movie that has blown me away for its editing (although I have yet to see Zero) more than any other film this year.  These are his third and fourth nominations with no wins.
  2. Zero Dark Thirty - If Goldenberg does not win for Argo, then I feel pretty sure he will win for this film, an honor he would then share with Dylan Tychenor, currently blessed with his second nomination.
  3. Lincoln - The legendary Michael Kahn has now received eight nods and won three times, which seems like it should be enough for anybody.  However, he's been working with Spielberg frequently since Close Encounters in the late seventies, and everytime Spielberg has won big, so has he (his three wins are for Raider's, Schindler, and Private Ryan).  If Lincoln takes Picture and Director, Mr. Kahn's odds go up tremendously.
  4. Life of Pi - This is Tim Squyres' second nomination (following Crouching Tiger, also with Lee), and he is certainly a contender to watch in the future, but I am less than optimistic about his chances this year, unless Pi wins picture.
  5. Silver Linings Playbook - Even if Playbook won Best Picture (and it could, I assure you), I doubt that it would pick up an Editing victory.  It's nominees are on their first (Struthers) and second (Cassidy) nods.
  Rust and Bone - Review forthcoming.  Very skillful, seamless, creative and deliberate interweaving of the visual elements at play here.  Freaking great movie.

Best Visual Effects
  1.(1) Life of Pi - Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocherson, Erik-Jan De Boer & Donald R. Elliot
  2.(3) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton & R. Christopher White
  3.(4) The Avengers - Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams & Dan Sudick
  4.(5)  Prometheus - Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley & Martin Hill
  5.(8)  Snow White and the Huntsman - Cedric Nicholas-Troyan, Phillip Brennan, Neil Corbould & Michael Dawson
     Once again, I ALMOST agree with the buzz, with one little switch...
  1. Life of Pi - I'm afraid that the buzz for Pi to win this category has been deafening for months before the nominations were even announced. Having seen the picture, I'm a believer.  Three of the nominated artists are receiving their first nominations.  Only Bill Westenhofer has been nominated thrice, winning once for The Golden Compass.
  2. The Avengers - I jump this film up a slot to number two because if anyone in the category is sporting an overdue victory factor that might catch the attention of the voting body, it is Dan Sudyk, on his fifth nomination with no victories.  It's not like there is really such a thing as a celebrity visual effects artist in the sense that there are quasi-celebrity cinematographers or even editors and costumers, so his running tally of losses may slip under the radar, but you never know.
  3. The Hobbit:  An Unexpected Journey - Of course, if there IS just ONE celebrity visual effects artist, it might be Joe Letteri, enjoying his seventh nod.  However, he already has FOUR wins under his belt, and TWO of them were set in Middle Earth, so victory may be an uphill battle.
  4. Prometheus - The only one of the nominees for this film who has been nominated before (Trevor Wood) has only been nominated ONCE before, for The Golden Compass, which won the Oscar.  The work here was solid, but the film's general lack of awards presence this season does not lead me to believe it will present much challenge to the big three.
  5. Snow White and the Huntsman - This is Neil Corbould's third nomination, but he already won once for Gladiator and the rest of the team are all first time nominees.  This nomination was a bit of a surprise;  I doubt it can win.
  Should have been nominated:  The Impossible - It doesn't have to be all about aliens and powers and monsters.  I feel like I know what being caught in a tsunami looks like.  If I ever find out I PRAY that I make it back to tell you if I was right.  I'm not optimistic.


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Oscar Winners Predictions & Buzz - Pretty Picture Techs

     Buzz comes first with previous rankings in parenthesis.  My personal thought and predictions follow on each category's second list.  Let's knock these out...

Best Production Design
  1.(2) Anna Karenina - Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer
  2.(1) Les Miserables - Eve Stewart & Anna Lynch-Robinson
  3.(3) Lincoln - Rick Carter & Jim Erikson
  4.(8) Life of Pi - David Gropman & Anna Pinnock
  5.(4) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent & Simon Bright
      I would only shift this around a bit...
  1. Anna Karenina - Besides having the buzz (and the goods), this team is also the most overdue, both on their fourth nod (having been nominated together for Sherlock Holmes, Atonement & Pride and Prejudice) without a single win.
  2. Life of Pi - This film has enough upward momentum in buzz right now to make me think that it is taking a real run at the win.  Production Designer David Gropman is on his second nomination (the first was for Cider House Rules), and Set Decorator Anna Pinnock is on her third (previously up for Golden Compass and Gosford Park).  Neither has won.
  3. Les Miserables - Besides good buzz, Production Designer Eve Stewart also has three nominations (this, The King's Speech & Topsy Turvey) under her belt.  Anna Lynch-Robinson's set decoration is being honored for the first time.
  4. Lincoln - This is Production Designer Rick Carter's fourth nod, but he's already won for Avatar.  It's his partner Jim Erikson's first time at bat with the Academy.
  5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - This picture's set decorating team is enjoying their first nomination.  Production Designer Dan Hennah has been nominated five times, but has already won once.  With all of these winless multiple nominees in the game, he'll probably have to wait to see a second victory.
  Should have been nominated:  Cloud Atlas (again, six different time periods)


Best Cinematography
  1.(2) Life of Pi - Claudio Miranda
  2.(8) Skyfall - Roger Deakins
  3.(3) Lincoln - Janusz Kaminski
  4.(6) Anna Karenina - Seamus McGarvey
  5.(7) Django Unchained - Robert Richardson
     I CANNOT argue with the buzz here at all, much as I personally feel that the camera work in Anna Karenina was far superior to that in Skyfall, and Lincoln's use of lighting blew anything I saw onscreen in either of them.  Still, I don't get to vote...
  1. Life of Pi - I've been trying in this round of predictions not to let the buzz rule me when there is an undeniable overdue factor involved.  There is a GLARINGLY overdue DoP nominated in this category, but it is not second time nominee Claudio Miranda.  However, his buzz is SO strong for Life of Pi, and his work so undeniably groundbreaking (not to mention gorgeous), that I still have to predict him to win.
  2. Skyfall - BUT...there is one radically overdue cinematographer in the mix this year.  This is Roger Deakins' TENTH nomination with no wins.  I have to believe that if anyone can steal this trophy from Pi, it is he.
  3. Lincoln - THEN AGAIN...Kaminski is a living legend on his sixth nomination.  He HAS already won twice, both times for Spielberg helmed Best Picture winning films.  Hmmm...
  4. Anna Karenina - Seamus McGarvey (now a two time nominee) did excellent work on this film, and he's had a strong year, having lensed The Avengers as well.  However, I think a win is unlikely for him THIS year.
  5. Django Unchained - Another living legend, Robert Richardson is enjoying his eighth time at the AMPAS rodeo, but with three wins under his belt already (JFK, Aviator, & Hugo).  He also JUST won last year, so this year the nod is probably its own reward.
  Should have been nominated:  Beasts of the Southern Wild (instead of Skyfall)


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Oscar Winners Predictions & Buzz - Pretty People

     As always, the buzz leads with former rankings listed in parenthesis.  My thoughts and prediction can be found on the second list in each category.  Let's get hoppin...

Best Costume Design

  1.(1) Anna Karenina - Jaqueline Durran

  2.(2) Les Miserables - Paco Delgado

  3.(3) Lincoln - Joanna Johnston

  4.(4) Mirror Mirror - Eiko Ishioka

  5.(8) Snow White and the Huntsman - Colleen Atwood
     My nominations here follow the buzz pretty closely, but here's why...
  1. Anna Karenina - This is Jaqueline Durran's third nomination with no wins, and the work is certainly strong enough for the win, so...
  2. Lincon - This is Joanna Johnston's first nomination, but the buzz here seems to be growing steadily, so for now, I'm going to count her as Durran's main competition, but don't count out...
  3. Les Miserables - Paco Delgado is also enjoying his first nomination, and buzz is strong here as well.
  4. Mirror Mirror - It was a nice gesture to give costume designer Ishioka her second nod posthumously, but she won the first one, and the work here was...well...a little tacky, honestly.  I just can't see them giving her the win.
  5. Snow White & the Huntsman - I'm sure that someday Colleen Atwood will win a fourth Oscar, but even the nomination was a bit of a surprise this year (her tenth, by the way).

  Should have been nominated:  Cloud Atlas (six different time periods, come on)

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling

  1.(3) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater & Tami Lane

  2.(4) Les Miserables - Lisa Westcott & Julie Dartnell

  3.(5) Hitchcock - Howard Berger, Peter Montagna & Martin Samuel
     Here, I'm going to (perhaps unwisely) go way against conventional wisdom, and say...
  1. Les Miserables - This is Lisa Westcott's third nomination with no wins, and that gives her a bit of a leg up from the overdue factor.  This is also the only Best Picture nominee in this category.  For now, I'm going to predict it wins.
  2. Hitchcock - This film also features a multi-nominee who has never won in Martin Samuel who was previously nominated for two film in the Pirates series.  For now, I'm going to say that this gives it the edge over presumed front runner...
  3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey...This film's Make-Up team consists of two second time nominees who both won for their first nods.  This might make the Academy loathe to reward them again so soon.  Of the trio, only Rick Findlater has never won (or been nominated).
  Should have been nominated:  Cloud Atlas

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Oscar Winners Predictions & Buzz - Noisy Techs

     As always, the buzz comes first, with former rankings appearing in parenthesis (you'll note that Argo wasn't even ON either of the November charts).  My opinions and predictions follow on the second lists.

Best Sound Editing

  1.(4) Life of Pi - Eugene Gearty and Phillip Stockton

  2.(7) Skyfall - Per Hallberg and Karen M Baker

  3.(5) Django Unchained - Wylie Stateman

  4. Argo - Erik Aadaj and Ethan Van der Ryn

  5.(3) Zero Dark Thirty - Paul N.J. Ottosson
     My initial thoughts in this category were so far off the buzz that I had to adjust them a little to take it into consideration.
  1. Django Unchained - Wylie Stateman has been nominated six times over the course of 22 years.  It's a bit of a wild hunch, but I think the overdue factor may win the day on this one.
  2. Zero Dark Thirty - I know that it's buzz has waned since the nominations, but this COULD be the one award that this film wins.  It is Ottosson's third nomination. He won previously for The Hurt Locker.
  3. Skyfall - This seasoned team would be 2 and 4 (Hallberg) & 2 and 1 (Baker) if they DON'T win this year.  I think the film has a better shot in Mixing.
  4. Life of Pi - Only strong buzz keeps me from ranking this film last.  It has been praised for its sound design, but this duo just won last year for Hugo.  Unless the majority of the Academy is unaware that they are voting for the same two guys, it seems unlikely.
  5. Argo - This is only Aadaj's second nomination and his co-nominee has already won twice.  I think this nod was just a shout out.
  Should have been nominated:  The Dark Knight Rises


Best Sound Mixing
  1.(1) Les Miserables - Andy Neelson, Mark Paterson & Simon Hayes
  2.(7) Skyfall - Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell & Stuart Wilson
  3.(5) Life of Pi - Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill & Drew Kunin
  4.(8) Lincoln - Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom & Ronald Judkins
  5. Argo - John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff & Jose Antonio Garcia
     Conversely, in this category I didn't alter my initial feelings to fit the buzz at all.  They matched up exactly to start with.
  1. Les Miserables - Andy Neelson may not have the strongest overdue factor on this list, but he received his seventeenth and eighteenth nominations this year and has only won once (for Saving Private Ryan).  When you couple this with the fact that no musical had ever blended its sound elements in quite this way before, and his team becomes the one most likely to take the prize.
  2. Skyfall - The MOST overdue nominee in this category is Greg P. Russell, who has been nominated 16 times in the last 22 years and NEVER WON.  It feels like the Academy wants to give Skyfall something, and these stats make this a tempting token offering.
  3. Life of Pi - D.M. Hemphill is rocking a pretty impressive overdue factor as well with 8 nominations and only one win (for Last of the Mohicans), and this film's sound work has been highly praised.  Both his co-nominees are basking in first nomination bliss.
  4. Lincoln - This is the most seasoned team on the list, but apart from Mr. Neelson (who is far more likely to win for Les Miz), nobody's really sporting the overdue thing, as Judkins has won twice and Rydstrom has four Oscars.
  5. Argo - A case could be made that Reitz, on his fifth nod with only one win, could be seen as overdue.  I'm not going to make it.
  Should have been nominated: The Impossible

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Oscar Winners Predictions & Buzz - Musical Techs

  As always, the buzz comes first, with previous rankings listed in parenthesis.  My predictions and commentary follow in the second list.  It's still early in the game;  don't be surprised if I change my mind before my final predictions.

Best Original Song
     I went on YouTube and listened to all of these right before I wrote this.  Just saying...
  1.(2) "Skyfall" from Skyfall - Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
  2.(1) "Suddenly" from Les Miserables - Claude-Michel Schonberg, Herbert Kretzmer, and Alain Boublil
  3.(9) "Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from Ted - Walter Murphy and Seth McFarland
  4. "Before My Time" from Chasing Ice - J. Ralph
  5. "Pi's Lullaby" from Life of Pi - Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayashri

  1. "Skyfall" - Sure, this song won the Critic's Choice and the Globe, but the real advantage that it has going for it is Adele.  Everybody loves Adele, the marriage of her sultry 60's throwback voice and stylings to the bond franchise was an inspired move, and she adds a refreshing atmosphere of grace and humility to any awards show.
  2. "Before My Time" - I know this is really illogical at this point, but check the song out and then tell me I'm completely crazy, or tell me now, I don't care.  If enough members who vote actually listen to all five songs, I think it has a shot.  Almost as haunting as the first time I heard Skyfall, if not quite as catchy.
  3. "Pi's Lullaby" - 11 nominations (3 above the line, 8 below) indicates widespread support for this film in multiple branches.  It could pick up any number of awards, and while this is one of the least likely categories for that to happen in, it could.
  4. "Suddenly" - I know, I know, it's still one of my two favorite musicals of all time (even if I still haven't seen the film) but the song does not stand up to "I Dreamed a Dream", "One Day More", "On My Own", "Stars", or even "Master of the House".  All it has is Best Picture nominee buzz, and that is waning.
  5. "Everybody Needs a Best Friend" - Nominated as a token shout out to host Seth MacFarlane, and a bid to get Norah Jones singing live at the show.
  Should have been nominated:  Something, anything from Lawless.  Seriously.


Best Original Score
  1.(2) Life of Pi - Mychael Danna
  2.(1) Lincoln - John Williams
  3.(5) Anna Karenina - Dario Marianelli
  4.(4) Argo - Alexander Desplat
  5. Skyfall - Thomas Newman
     And I say...
  1. Life of Pi - Mychael Danna may stand little chance of winning in Song, but he does seem to have the momentum in this category right now.  I know that the Globes don't determine the Oscars by any stretch, but this time I think that they might match up.
  2. Argo - Alexander Desplat could easily benefit from the overdue factor.  In the last seven years he has been nominated five times (and it might have been six if he hadn't refused to submit any of his works from last year) but has yet to win.  He is definitely one of the most celebrated (and nominated) composers in the modern age of film and this could well be his year.
  3. Lincoln - This is John Williams' forty-eighth nomination, although a handful of those were for Song.  He has won five times, three working with Lincoln helmer Spielberg (Jaws, E.T., and Schindler's List), as well for Star Wars and Fiddler On The Roof.  He won the Critics' Choice, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Academy may feel that with five wins under his belt, the bar is set just a little higher for this living legend.
  4. Skyfall - If the buzz weren't so low for this picture, I might have to predict Thomas Newman on the overdue factor alone.  This is his eleventh nomination, and he has yet to win.  Previous nods include memorable music from WALL*E, American Beauty, and The Shawshank Redemption.
  5. Anna Karenina - This is Dario Marianelli's third nomination, and each time has been for a collaboration with director Joe Wright.  Still, this composer has only recently come to prominence and already has a win under his belt for Atonement (also nominated for Pride and Prejudice).
  Should have been nominated:  Beasts of the Southern Wild - Benh Zietlen...If they were gonna go for Director and Adapted Screenplay, surely they could have given the year's most exciting new film maker the trifecta of nominations that he so richly deserved.

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