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Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Final Pre-Nomination Oscar Predictions

     With the announcement of this year's Academy Award nominations less than 24 hours away, here is my final word on the matter.  For each category, I list my ACTUAL predictions first, followed by an Alternate (the film most likely to be nominated in place of one of my picks), a Wild Card pick (something that the buzz does not support at all, but I feel COULD slide in as a surprise nod), and For Your Consideration pick (something with NO chance at being nominated, but that I feel deserves it more than some of the ones that will).  Let's begin:


Best Picture
     The trick here is figuring out what the buzz is telling us about how MANY nominees we will have in the mix.  I have inserted breaks in the top ten wherever the buzz indicates a possible cut-off exists.
  1. Argo
  2. Lincoln
  3. Zero Dark Thirty
  4. Les Miserables
  5. Life of Pi
  6. Silver Linings Playbook
  7. Django Unchained
  8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  9. Moonrise Kingdom
  10. Amour
   Alternate: Skyfall
  Wild Card: The Intouchables
  For Your Consideration: The Sound of My Voice

Best Director
  1. Ben Affleck - Argo
  2. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
  3. Katherine Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
  4. Ang Lee - Life of Pi
  5. David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
   Alternate: Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
  Wild Card: Michael Haneke - Amour
  For Your Consideration - Tom Tykwer & the Wachowskis - Cloud Atlas

Best Actor
  1.  Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
  2.  John Hawkes - The Sessions
  3.  Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
  4.  Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
  5.  Denzel Washington - Flight
  Alternate: Joachin Phoenix - The Master
  Wild Card: Jamie Foxx - Django Unchained
  For Your Consideration: Suraj Sharma - Life of Pi, Joseph Gordon-Levitt - Looper

Best Actress
  1.  Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
  2.  Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
  3.  Naomi Watts - The Impossible
  4.  Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
  5.  Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
  Alternate: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
  Wild Card: Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea
  For Your Consideration:  Anne Hathaway - The Dark Knight Rises

Best Supporting Actor
  1. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
  2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
  3. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
  4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
  5. Alan Arkin - Argo
   Alternate:  Matthew MacConaughey - Magic Mike
  Wild Card: Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
  For Your Consideration:  Mikkel Boe Folsgaard - A Royal Affair

Best Supporting Actress
  1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
  2. Sally Field - Lincoln
  3. Helen Hunt - Sessions
  4. Amy Adams - The Master
  5. Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
  Alternate: Ann Dowd - Compliance
  Wild Card: Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
  For Your Consideration: Doona Bae - Cloud Atlas

Best Original Screenplay
  1. Django Unchained
  2. Moonrise Kingdom
  3. The Master
  4. Zero Dark Thirty
  5. Looper
  Alternate: Flight
  Wild Card: Middle of Nowhere
  For Your Consideration: The Cabin in the Woods


Best Adapted Screenplay
  1. Lincoln
  2. Argo
  3. Silver Linings Playbook
  4. Life of Pi
  5. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  Alternate: Perks of Being a Wallflower
  Wild Card: The Sessions
  For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas

Best Animated Feature
  1. Frankenweenie
  2. Paranorman
  3. Brave
  4. The Painting
  5. Wreck-It Ralph
  Alternate: Rise of the Guardians
  Wild Card: The Rabbi's Cat
  For Your Consideration: A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman

Best Foreign Language Film
  1. Amour (Austria)
  2. The Intouchables (France)
  3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)
  4. War Witch (Canada)
  5. No (Chile)
  Alternate: Beyond the Hills (Romania)
  Wild Card: Kon-Tiki (Norway)
  For Your Consideration: Elena (Russia)

Best Documentary
  1. Searching For Sugar Man
  2. How To Survive a Plague
  3. The Imposter
  4. The Gatekeepers
  5. The House I Live In
  Alternate: The Invisible War
  Wild Card: This Is Not a Film
  For Your Consideration: Marley

Best Cinematography
  1. Life of Pi
  2. Skyfall
  3. Lincoln
  4. Django Unchained
  5. Les Miserables
  Alternate:  The Master
  Wild Card: Beasts of the Southern Wild
  For Your Consideration: The Dark Knight Rises


Best Costume
  1. Anna Karenina
  2. Les Miserables
  3. Lincoln
  4. Django Unchained
  5. Cloud Atlas
  Alternate: Mirror Mirror
  Wild Card: A Royal Affair
  For Your Consideration: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Editing
  1. Argo
  2. Zero Dark Thirty
  3. Lincoln
  4. Life of Pi
  5. Les Miserables
  Alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
  Wild Card: Skyfall
  For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
  1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  2. Lincoln
  3. Les Miserables
  Alternate: Hitchcock
  Wild Card: Looper
  For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas

Best Music (Original Score)
  1. Lincoln
  2. Life of Pi
  3. The Master
  4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  5. Argo
  Alternate: Cloud Atlas
  Wild Card: Zero Dark Thirty
  For Your Consideration: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Music (Original Song)
  1. Les Miserables - Suddenly
  2. Skyfall - Skyfall
  3. Brave - Learn Me Right
  4. Django Unchained - Ancora Qui
  5. Life of Pi - Pi's Lullaby
  Alternate: Paul Williams Is Still Alive - Still Alive
  Wild Card: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Song of the Lonely Mountain, Frankenweenie - Strange Love
  For Your Consideration: Any of the excellent disqualified work from Lawless

Best Production Design
  1. Les Miserables
  2. Anna Karenina
  3. Lincoln
  4.The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  5. Life of Pi
  Alternate: Cloud Atlas
  Wild Card: Argo
  For Your Consideration: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Sound Editing
  1. Zero Dark Thirty
  2. Skyfall
  3. The Dark Knight Rises
  4. The Avengers
  5. Life of Pi
  Alternate: Lincoln
  Wild Card: The Impossible
   For Your Consideration: The Cabin In the Woods

Best Sound Mixing
  1. Les Miserables
  2. Zero Dark Thirty
  3. Skyfall
  4. Life of Pi
  5. The Dark Knight Rises
  Alternate: Lincoln
  Wild Card: The Impossible
   For Your Consideration:  The Grey


Best Visual Effects
  1. Life of Pi
  2. Cloud Atlas
  3. The Avengers
  4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  5. The Dark Knight Rises
  Alternate:  Prometheus
  Wild Card:  Skyfall
   For Your Consideration:  The Cabin In the Woods


Best Animated Short
  1. Paperman
  2. The Eagleman Stag
  3. Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare
  4. Adam and Dog
  5. Combustible
  Alternate: Dripped
  Wild Card: Tram
 

Best Documentary Short
  1. The Education of Mohammed Hussein
  2. Open Heart
  3. Mondays at Racine
  4. Innocente
  5. Kings Point
   Alternate: Redemption
  Wild Card: Paraiso

Best Live Action Short
  1. Death of a Shadow
  2. Curfew
  3. When You Find Me
  4. 9 Meter
  5. When You Find Me
  Alternate: Asad
  Wild Card: The Night Shift Belongs To The Stars
 
     And in a few hours it will all be over.  I ran short of time to post the buzz list final tallies, so I'll work them into my analysis after they are announced tomorrow.  I have butterflies...


Related Posts:  coming soon (I ran out of time)

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