With the announcement of this year's Academy Award nominations less than 24 hours away, here is my final word on the matter. For each category, I list my ACTUAL predictions first, followed by an Alternate (the film most likely to be nominated in place of one of my picks), a Wild Card pick (something that the buzz does not support at all, but I feel COULD slide in as a surprise nod), and For Your Consideration pick (something with NO chance at being nominated, but that I feel deserves it more than some of the ones that will). Let's begin:
Best Picture
The trick here is figuring out what the buzz is telling us about how MANY nominees we will have in the mix. I have inserted breaks in the top ten wherever the buzz indicates a possible cut-off exists.
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Les Miserables
5. Life of Pi
6. Silver Linings Playbook
7. Django Unchained
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Moonrise Kingdom
10. Amour
Alternate: Skyfall
Wild Card: The Intouchables
For Your Consideration: The Sound of My Voice
Best Director
1. Ben Affleck - Argo
2. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
3. Katherine Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
4. Ang Lee - Life of Pi
5. David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
Wild Card: Michael Haneke - Amour
For Your Consideration - Tom Tykwer & the Wachowskis - Cloud Atlas
Best Actor
1. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
2. John Hawkes - The Sessions
3. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
4. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
5. Denzel Washington - Flight
Alternate: Joachin Phoenix - The Master
Wild Card: Jamie Foxx - Django Unchained
For Your Consideration: Suraj Sharma - Life of Pi, Joseph Gordon-Levitt - Looper
Best Actress
1. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
2. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
3. Naomi Watts - The Impossible
4. Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Alternate: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Wild Card: Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea
For Your Consideration: Anne Hathaway - The Dark Knight Rises
Best Supporting Actor
1. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
3. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
5. Alan Arkin - Argo
Alternate: Matthew MacConaughey - Magic Mike
Wild Card: Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
For Your Consideration: Mikkel Boe Folsgaard - A Royal Affair
Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
2. Sally Field - Lincoln
3. Helen Hunt - Sessions
4. Amy Adams - The Master
5. Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alternate: Ann Dowd - Compliance
Wild Card: Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
For Your Consideration: Doona Bae - Cloud Atlas
Best Original Screenplay
1. Django Unchained
2. Moonrise Kingdom
3. The Master
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Looper
Alternate: Flight
Wild Card: Middle of Nowhere
For Your Consideration: The Cabin in the Woods
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alternate: Perks of Being a Wallflower
Wild Card: The Sessions
For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas
Best Animated Feature
1. Frankenweenie
2. Paranorman
3. Brave
4. The Painting
5. Wreck-It Ralph
Alternate: Rise of the Guardians
Wild Card: The Rabbi's Cat
For Your Consideration: A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Amour (Austria)
2. The Intouchables (France)
3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)
4. War Witch (Canada)
5. No (Chile)
Alternate: Beyond the Hills (Romania)
Wild Card: Kon-Tiki (Norway)
For Your Consideration: Elena (Russia)
Best Documentary
1. Searching For Sugar Man
2. How To Survive a Plague
3. The Imposter
4. The Gatekeepers
5. The House I Live In
Alternate: The Invisible War
Wild Card: This Is Not a Film
For Your Consideration: Marley
Best Cinematography
1. Life of Pi
2. Skyfall
3. Lincoln
4. Django Unchained
5. Les Miserables
Alternate: The Master
Wild Card: Beasts of the Southern Wild
For Your Consideration: The Dark Knight Rises
Best Costume
1. Anna Karenina
2. Les Miserables
3. Lincoln
4. Django Unchained
5. Cloud Atlas
Alternate: Mirror Mirror
Wild Card: A Royal Affair
For Your Consideration: Moonrise Kingdom
Best Editing
1. Argo
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Lincoln
4. Life of Pi
5. Les Miserables
Alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
Wild Card: Skyfall
For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2. Lincoln
3. Les Miserables
Alternate: Hitchcock
Wild Card: Looper
For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas
Best Music (Original Score)
1. Lincoln
2. Life of Pi
3. The Master
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Argo
Alternate: Cloud Atlas
Wild Card: Zero Dark Thirty
For Your Consideration: Moonrise Kingdom
Best Music (Original Song)
1. Les Miserables - Suddenly
2. Skyfall - Skyfall
3. Brave - Learn Me Right
4. Django Unchained - Ancora Qui
5. Life of Pi - Pi's Lullaby
Alternate: Paul Williams Is Still Alive - Still Alive
Wild Card: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Song of the Lonely Mountain, Frankenweenie - Strange Love
For Your Consideration: Any of the excellent disqualified work from Lawless
Best Production Design
1. Les Miserables
2. Anna Karenina
3. Lincoln
4.The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
5. Life of Pi
Alternate: Cloud Atlas
Wild Card: Argo
For Your Consideration: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Sound Editing
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Skyfall
3. The Dark Knight Rises
4. The Avengers
5. Life of Pi
Alternate: Lincoln
Wild Card: The Impossible
For Your Consideration: The Cabin In the Woods
Best Sound Mixing
1. Les Miserables
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Skyfall
4. Life of Pi
5. The Dark Knight Rises
Alternate: Lincoln
Wild Card: The Impossible
For Your Consideration: The Grey
Best Visual Effects
1. Life of Pi
2. Cloud Atlas
3. The Avengers
4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
5. The Dark Knight Rises
Alternate: Prometheus
Wild Card: Skyfall
For Your Consideration: The Cabin In the Woods
Best Animated Short
1. Paperman
2. The Eagleman Stag
3. Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare
4. Adam and Dog
5. Combustible
Alternate: Dripped
Wild Card: Tram
Best Documentary Short
1. The Education of Mohammed Hussein
2. Open Heart
3. Mondays at Racine
4. Innocente
5. Kings Point
Alternate: Redemption
Wild Card: Paraiso
Best Live Action Short
1. Death of a Shadow
2. Curfew
3. When You Find Me
4. 9 Meter
5. When You Find Me
Alternate: Asad
Wild Card: The Night Shift Belongs To The Stars
And in a few hours it will all be over. I ran short of time to post the buzz list final tallies, so I'll work them into my analysis after they are announced tomorrow. I have butterflies...
Related Posts: coming soon (I ran out of time)
Best Picture
The trick here is figuring out what the buzz is telling us about how MANY nominees we will have in the mix. I have inserted breaks in the top ten wherever the buzz indicates a possible cut-off exists.
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Les Miserables
5. Life of Pi
6. Silver Linings Playbook
7. Django Unchained
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Moonrise Kingdom
10. Amour
Alternate: Skyfall
Wild Card: The Intouchables
For Your Consideration: The Sound of My Voice
Best Director
1. Ben Affleck - Argo
2. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
3. Katherine Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
4. Ang Lee - Life of Pi
5. David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
Wild Card: Michael Haneke - Amour
For Your Consideration - Tom Tykwer & the Wachowskis - Cloud Atlas
Best Actor
1. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
2. John Hawkes - The Sessions
3. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
4. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
5. Denzel Washington - Flight
Alternate: Joachin Phoenix - The Master
Wild Card: Jamie Foxx - Django Unchained
For Your Consideration: Suraj Sharma - Life of Pi, Joseph Gordon-Levitt - Looper
Best Actress
1. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
2. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
3. Naomi Watts - The Impossible
4. Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Alternate: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Wild Card: Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea
For Your Consideration: Anne Hathaway - The Dark Knight Rises
Best Supporting Actor
1. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
3. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
5. Alan Arkin - Argo
Alternate: Matthew MacConaughey - Magic Mike
Wild Card: Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
For Your Consideration: Mikkel Boe Folsgaard - A Royal Affair
Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
2. Sally Field - Lincoln
3. Helen Hunt - Sessions
4. Amy Adams - The Master
5. Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alternate: Ann Dowd - Compliance
Wild Card: Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
For Your Consideration: Doona Bae - Cloud Atlas
Best Original Screenplay
1. Django Unchained
2. Moonrise Kingdom
3. The Master
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Looper
Alternate: Flight
Wild Card: Middle of Nowhere
For Your Consideration: The Cabin in the Woods
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alternate: Perks of Being a Wallflower
Wild Card: The Sessions
For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas
Best Animated Feature
1. Frankenweenie
2. Paranorman
3. Brave
4. The Painting
5. Wreck-It Ralph
Alternate: Rise of the Guardians
Wild Card: The Rabbi's Cat
For Your Consideration: A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Amour (Austria)
2. The Intouchables (France)
3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)
4. War Witch (Canada)
5. No (Chile)
Alternate: Beyond the Hills (Romania)
Wild Card: Kon-Tiki (Norway)
For Your Consideration: Elena (Russia)
Best Documentary
1. Searching For Sugar Man
2. How To Survive a Plague
3. The Imposter
4. The Gatekeepers
5. The House I Live In
Alternate: The Invisible War
Wild Card: This Is Not a Film
For Your Consideration: Marley
Best Cinematography
1. Life of Pi
2. Skyfall
3. Lincoln
4. Django Unchained
5. Les Miserables
Alternate: The Master
Wild Card: Beasts of the Southern Wild
For Your Consideration: The Dark Knight Rises
Best Costume
1. Anna Karenina
2. Les Miserables
3. Lincoln
4. Django Unchained
5. Cloud Atlas
Alternate: Mirror Mirror
Wild Card: A Royal Affair
For Your Consideration: Moonrise Kingdom
Best Editing
1. Argo
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Lincoln
4. Life of Pi
5. Les Miserables
Alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
Wild Card: Skyfall
For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2. Lincoln
3. Les Miserables
Alternate: Hitchcock
Wild Card: Looper
For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas
Best Music (Original Score)
1. Lincoln
2. Life of Pi
3. The Master
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Argo
Alternate: Cloud Atlas
Wild Card: Zero Dark Thirty
For Your Consideration: Moonrise Kingdom
Best Music (Original Song)
1. Les Miserables - Suddenly
2. Skyfall - Skyfall
3. Brave - Learn Me Right
4. Django Unchained - Ancora Qui
5. Life of Pi - Pi's Lullaby
Alternate: Paul Williams Is Still Alive - Still Alive
Wild Card: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Song of the Lonely Mountain, Frankenweenie - Strange Love
For Your Consideration: Any of the excellent disqualified work from Lawless
Best Production Design
1. Les Miserables
2. Anna Karenina
3. Lincoln
4.The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
5. Life of Pi
Alternate: Cloud Atlas
Wild Card: Argo
For Your Consideration: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Sound Editing
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Skyfall
3. The Dark Knight Rises
4. The Avengers
5. Life of Pi
Alternate: Lincoln
Wild Card: The Impossible
For Your Consideration: The Cabin In the Woods
Best Sound Mixing
1. Les Miserables
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Skyfall
4. Life of Pi
5. The Dark Knight Rises
Alternate: Lincoln
Wild Card: The Impossible
For Your Consideration: The Grey
Best Visual Effects
1. Life of Pi
2. Cloud Atlas
3. The Avengers
4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
5. The Dark Knight Rises
Alternate: Prometheus
Wild Card: Skyfall
For Your Consideration: The Cabin In the Woods
Best Animated Short
1. Paperman
2. The Eagleman Stag
3. Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare
4. Adam and Dog
5. Combustible
Alternate: Dripped
Wild Card: Tram
Best Documentary Short
1. The Education of Mohammed Hussein
2. Open Heart
3. Mondays at Racine
4. Innocente
5. Kings Point
Alternate: Redemption
Wild Card: Paraiso
Best Live Action Short
1. Death of a Shadow
2. Curfew
3. When You Find Me
4. 9 Meter
5. When You Find Me
Alternate: Asad
Wild Card: The Night Shift Belongs To The Stars
And in a few hours it will all be over. I ran short of time to post the buzz list final tallies, so I'll work them into my analysis after they are announced tomorrow. I have butterflies...
Related Posts: coming soon (I ran out of time)
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