Friday, January 25, 2013

Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz - Finishing Touch Techs

      After these, I'm gonna take a few days to update my buzz before I tackle the genre categories and screenplays.  In the meantime, I'm sure that I'll pop out a few movie reviews and catch up to my viewing a bit.  As always, the buzz rankings come first, with former rankings in parenthesis.  My thoughts and predictions come slinking along after.

Best Editing
  1.(2) Zero Dark Thirty - Dylan Tichenor & William Goldenberg
  2.(1) Argo - William Goldenberg
  3.(3) Lincoln - Michael Kahn
  4.(6) Life of Pi - Tim Squyres
  5.(8) Silver Linings Playbook - Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers
     I currently see things a little bit differently...
  1. Argo - I have expected this to be the season of William Goldenberg in the Editing category for quite some time now, and thus far my theory is bearing out.  The difference in buzz between his two films is arbitrary, so I'm going to go with the movie that has blown me away for its editing (although I have yet to see Zero) more than any other film this year.  These are his third and fourth nominations with no wins.
  2. Zero Dark Thirty - If Goldenberg does not win for Argo, then I feel pretty sure he will win for this film, an honor he would then share with Dylan Tychenor, currently blessed with his second nomination.
  3. Lincoln - The legendary Michael Kahn has now received eight nods and won three times, which seems like it should be enough for anybody.  However, he's been working with Spielberg frequently since Close Encounters in the late seventies, and everytime Spielberg has won big, so has he (his three wins are for Raider's, Schindler, and Private Ryan).  If Lincoln takes Picture and Director, Mr. Kahn's odds go up tremendously.
  4. Life of Pi - This is Tim Squyres' second nomination (following Crouching Tiger, also with Lee), and he is certainly a contender to watch in the future, but I am less than optimistic about his chances this year, unless Pi wins picture.
  5. Silver Linings Playbook - Even if Playbook won Best Picture (and it could, I assure you), I doubt that it would pick up an Editing victory.  It's nominees are on their first (Struthers) and second (Cassidy) nods.
  Rust and Bone - Review forthcoming.  Very skillful, seamless, creative and deliberate interweaving of the visual elements at play here.  Freaking great movie.

Best Visual Effects
  1.(1) Life of Pi - Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocherson, Erik-Jan De Boer & Donald R. Elliot
  2.(3) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton & R. Christopher White
  3.(4) The Avengers - Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams & Dan Sudick
  4.(5)  Prometheus - Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley & Martin Hill
  5.(8)  Snow White and the Huntsman - Cedric Nicholas-Troyan, Phillip Brennan, Neil Corbould & Michael Dawson
     Once again, I ALMOST agree with the buzz, with one little switch...
  1. Life of Pi - I'm afraid that the buzz for Pi to win this category has been deafening for months before the nominations were even announced. Having seen the picture, I'm a believer.  Three of the nominated artists are receiving their first nominations.  Only Bill Westenhofer has been nominated thrice, winning once for The Golden Compass.
  2. The Avengers - I jump this film up a slot to number two because if anyone in the category is sporting an overdue victory factor that might catch the attention of the voting body, it is Dan Sudyk, on his fifth nomination with no victories.  It's not like there is really such a thing as a celebrity visual effects artist in the sense that there are quasi-celebrity cinematographers or even editors and costumers, so his running tally of losses may slip under the radar, but you never know.
  3. The Hobbit:  An Unexpected Journey - Of course, if there IS just ONE celebrity visual effects artist, it might be Joe Letteri, enjoying his seventh nod.  However, he already has FOUR wins under his belt, and TWO of them were set in Middle Earth, so victory may be an uphill battle.
  4. Prometheus - The only one of the nominees for this film who has been nominated before (Trevor Wood) has only been nominated ONCE before, for The Golden Compass, which won the Oscar.  The work here was solid, but the film's general lack of awards presence this season does not lead me to believe it will present much challenge to the big three.
  5. Snow White and the Huntsman - This is Neil Corbould's third nomination, but he already won once for Gladiator and the rest of the team are all first time nominees.  This nomination was a bit of a surprise;  I doubt it can win.
  Should have been nominated:  The Impossible - It doesn't have to be all about aliens and powers and monsters.  I feel like I know what being caught in a tsunami looks like.  If I ever find out I PRAY that I make it back to tell you if I was right.  I'm not optimistic.

Related Posts:  Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz: Of Snubs and Triumphs (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing & Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Fantasy Life of Pi?I Think You "Argo"ing To Love It!Merchandisers Assemble! (Avengers review), Promarlius Kingdom (Prometheus review), The Best Huntsman's Shadow (Snow White and the Huntsman)

No comments:

Post a Comment