Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Oscar Winners Predictions & Buzz - Screenplays

     So we're gonna skip Foreign Language Film and Live-Action shorts for a moment (is there an echo in here?) as I am hoping to see the Live-Action Shorts later tonight (fingers crossed).  In the meantime, we shall  forge forward into the top eight categories.  It would be nice to know what The Writer's Guild will do first, but at least the Scripter Award was already announced.  As always, the buzz rankings appear on the first list with previous rankings listed in parenthesis.  My humble opinions come hopping after...

Adapted Screenplay
  1.(1) Lincoln - Tony Kushner
  2.(2) Argo - Chris Terrio
  3.(3) Silver Linings Playbook - David O Russell
  4.(5) Life of Pi - David Magee
  5.(4) Beasts of the Southern Wild - Benh Zeitlen & Lucy Alibar
  Leaving the Rankings:  Les Miserables, The Sessions, Anna Karenina, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Cloud Atlas
     It's difficult to argue with the buzz too much.  It's definitely still a three way race, however.  For now, I'll say...
  1. Silver Linings Playbook...I may well switch in my final predictions, but this film just won the BAFTA, whose voting body overlaps with the Academy.  It also won the National Board of Review.
  2. Argo...Argomania could carry Chris Terrio to a win.  The recent Scripter victory didn't hurt.
  3. Lincoln...Tony Kushner is clearly well respected and he did win the Critics Choice, but the film seems to be losing its foothold on the top of THIS mountain.
  4. Beasts of the Southern Wild...Benh Zeitlin  and Lucy Alibar are still a wild card.  They have won SOME sort of recognition from almost every critics group imaginable.  With no "outstanding newcomer" award to shuffle off on the film, and no clear front runner in this category, anything could happen. Especially this year.
  5. Life of Pi...As difficult as this adaptation must have been to write, and despite the fact that he and Kushner are the only scribes on this list with previous writing nominations, I think that David Magee will have to console himself with being that much more overdue next time.

Original Screenplay
  1.(4) Django Unchained - Quentin Tarantino
  2.(5) Amour - Michael Haneke
  3.(2) Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal
  4.(3) Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
  5.(7) Flight - John Gatins
  Leaving the Rankings:  The Master, Looper, Promised Land, Middle of Nowhere, Seven Psychopaths
     It's difficult for me to take any nominee list that excludes Looper too seriously, but I shall try to remain objective...
  1. Amour...Usually when a Foreign Film receives multiple nods it wins somewhere outside of the Foreign Language Film category.  I may chicken out and pick Django in my final predictions, but for now I feel like mixing this up.
  2. Django...Of course, it's difficult to argue with the three time nominee and former winner who already took home The Critics Choice, BAFTA, and Golden Globe.  Um....
  3. Moonrise Kingdom...IF this film were to win the Writer's Guild Award I could MAYBE see it picking up the momentum to win in this category.  It is Anderson's second writing nomination, Coppola's first.
  4. Zero Dark Thirty...Considering that Boal just won for the Hurt Locker and the Academy's tendency to distance themselves from TOO much controversy, I'm having an increasingly difficult time seeing a win for this picture here.
  5. Flight.. Mr. Gatins should consider himself very lucky to be nominated.

Related Articles:  Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz: Of Snubs and Triumphs (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing & Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Finishing Touch Techs (Editing & Visual Effects), Toons of Any Length (Animated Feature & Animated Short), Docs of Any Length (Documentary Feature & Documentary Short), I Think You "Argo"ing to Love It!"Lincoln" PerksFantasy "Life of Pi"Best That the Summer Wields? (Beasts of the Southern Wild review), Acting Master Classes in Private "Sessions"Anna Conundruma (Anna Karenina review), Cloudy Connections (Cloud Atlas review), Promarlius Kingdom (Moonrise Kingdom review), Didn't Quite Take "Flight"Can You "Master" Your Nature?Twist Until You Are Loopey? (Looper review), Premise Grand (Promised Land review)

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