One of these races is even more set in stone than last time, while the other is even more up for grabs. As always, buzz rankings come first, with previous placements listed in parenthesis (see how far Jacki Weaver has come in this race?). My commentary closes out each category. Ladies first...
Supporting Actress
1.(1) Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
2.(2) Sally Field - Lincoln
3.(4) Amy Adams - The Master
4.(3) Helen Hunt - The Sessions
5.(9) Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
Leaving the rankings: Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Ann Dowd - Compliance, Samantha Barks - Les Miserables, Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy, Judi Dench - Skyfall
There are about seven categories that I feel are such done deals that I could predict the winner today with great confidence. This is one of them...
1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables...She won all four of the major precursors and has yet to win an Oscar. I'd say the time to dream her dream is right now.
2. Sally Field - Lincoln...She has never lost and she won this year with the Boston and New York critics, but I'm afraid that is probably all she's gonna get.
3. Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook...Weinstein is pushing this film hard enough that this upset seems SLIGHTLY more probable than the remaining two scenarios while still being nearly impossible.
4. Helen Hunt - The Sessions...Like Ms. Field, I believe that Ms. Hunt will have her first experience at LOSING an Oscar race this year.
5. Amy Adams - The Master...With four nominations and no wins, she is arguably the most overdue competitor in the race, but with The Weinstein Co. concentrating its 11th hour campaign tactics around Silver Linings, she seems likely to stay that way.
Supporting Actor
1.(2) Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
2.(3) Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
3.(8) Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
4.(1) Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
5.(5) Alan Arkin - Argo
Leaving the Rankings: Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained, Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike, Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild, Javier Bardem - Skyfall, John Goodman - Argo
I'm not sure I'll feel ready to call this category the night before the Oscars, but right now I'm feeling...
1. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook...Oddly enough, he hasn't won anything yet, just been nominated everywhere. He's been omnipresent the last couple of weeks though, and it is easy to picture the beloved veteran "getting his turn" in a year when the wins have been spread around among most of his fellow nominees already.
2. Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained...Although if you go by wins, Waltz took the Globe and BAFTA and has the forward momentum, being something of a surprise contender who's won almost everything he's been up for.
3. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln...Which is certainly not to discount the fact that this is VERY much a three way race and Jones's SAG winning performance is one of the best of his career.
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master...Another fantastic performance, but Weinstein isn't pushing this film as hard as Silver or Django, and that Critics Choice victory seems like a long time ago.
5. Alan Arkin - Argo...Lucky to be here instead of co-star John Goodman.
Related Articles: Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz: Of Snubs and Triumphs (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing & Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Finishing Touch Techs (Editing & Visual Effects), Toons of Any Length (Animated Feature & Animated Short), Docs of Any Length (Documentary Feature & Documentary Short), Screenplays (Adapted & Original), I Think You "Argo"ing to Love It!, "Lincoln" Perks, Best That the Summer Wields? (Beasts of the Southern Wild review), Acting Master Classes in Private "Sessions", Didn't Quite Take "Flight", Can You "Master" Your Nature?, The Best Huntsman's Shadow (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel review), 23? You Don't Play Like A Sequel Over 2! (Skyfall review), Where Did the Magic Spider Go? (Magic Mike review),
Supporting Actress
1.(1) Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
2.(2) Sally Field - Lincoln
3.(4) Amy Adams - The Master
4.(3) Helen Hunt - The Sessions
5.(9) Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
Leaving the rankings: Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Ann Dowd - Compliance, Samantha Barks - Les Miserables, Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy, Judi Dench - Skyfall
There are about seven categories that I feel are such done deals that I could predict the winner today with great confidence. This is one of them...
1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables...She won all four of the major precursors and has yet to win an Oscar. I'd say the time to dream her dream is right now.
2. Sally Field - Lincoln...She has never lost and she won this year with the Boston and New York critics, but I'm afraid that is probably all she's gonna get.
3. Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook...Weinstein is pushing this film hard enough that this upset seems SLIGHTLY more probable than the remaining two scenarios while still being nearly impossible.
4. Helen Hunt - The Sessions...Like Ms. Field, I believe that Ms. Hunt will have her first experience at LOSING an Oscar race this year.
5. Amy Adams - The Master...With four nominations and no wins, she is arguably the most overdue competitor in the race, but with The Weinstein Co. concentrating its 11th hour campaign tactics around Silver Linings, she seems likely to stay that way.
Supporting Actor
1.(2) Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
2.(3) Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
3.(8) Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
4.(1) Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
5.(5) Alan Arkin - Argo
Leaving the Rankings: Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained, Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike, Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild, Javier Bardem - Skyfall, John Goodman - Argo
I'm not sure I'll feel ready to call this category the night before the Oscars, but right now I'm feeling...
1. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook...Oddly enough, he hasn't won anything yet, just been nominated everywhere. He's been omnipresent the last couple of weeks though, and it is easy to picture the beloved veteran "getting his turn" in a year when the wins have been spread around among most of his fellow nominees already.
2. Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained...Although if you go by wins, Waltz took the Globe and BAFTA and has the forward momentum, being something of a surprise contender who's won almost everything he's been up for.
3. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln...Which is certainly not to discount the fact that this is VERY much a three way race and Jones's SAG winning performance is one of the best of his career.
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master...Another fantastic performance, but Weinstein isn't pushing this film as hard as Silver or Django, and that Critics Choice victory seems like a long time ago.
5. Alan Arkin - Argo...Lucky to be here instead of co-star John Goodman.
Related Articles: Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz: Of Snubs and Triumphs (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing & Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Finishing Touch Techs (Editing & Visual Effects), Toons of Any Length (Animated Feature & Animated Short), Docs of Any Length (Documentary Feature & Documentary Short), Screenplays (Adapted & Original), I Think You "Argo"ing to Love It!, "Lincoln" Perks, Best That the Summer Wields? (Beasts of the Southern Wild review), Acting Master Classes in Private "Sessions", Didn't Quite Take "Flight", Can You "Master" Your Nature?, The Best Huntsman's Shadow (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel review), 23? You Don't Play Like A Sequel Over 2! (Skyfall review), Where Did the Magic Spider Go? (Magic Mike review),
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