June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - Supporting Players

     Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress are much more difficult to call this far out than Actor and Actress because not only do you have to guess which films will bring the quality, but which performances will stand out among several star laden ensembles.  As always, the buzz leads, while my humble guesses (relatively humble, all things considered) follow thereafter...

Best Supporting Actress
  1. Amy Adams - American Hustle
  2. Cameron Diaz - The Counselor
  3. Margo Martindale - August: Osage County
  4. Cate Blanchet - The Monuments Men
  5. Ocatvia Spencer - Fruitvale Station

  6. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
  7. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler
  8. Catherine Keener - Captain Phillips
  9. Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis
  10. Vanessa Redgrave - Foxcatcher

     Of course, things are still wide open.  I could easily have named twice as many women who currently have buzz in this category.  Right now, I see things sorta like...

  1. Kristen Scott Thomas - Only God Forgives (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Refn squeezed 1 nod out of Drive and it would seem that this would be the nod that the Weinstein Company acquired "Forgives" to try and secure since she reportedly steals the show.  Besides, the Academy's been waiting for an excuse to invite her back ever since The English Patient.
  2. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler (0 wins out of 1 nomination in acting categories)...Honestly I was ready to predict her for Best Actress but it now looks more likely she will campaign here.  Weinstein again.
  3. Cameron Diaz - The Counselor (never nominated)...I'm kind of betting heavily on this film for several categories and after four Globe nominations, you'd think the Academy is just waiting for the right role here.
  4. Vanessa Redgrave - Foxcatcher (1 win out of 6 nominations)...This is just something that all movie fanboys want, 1 more win for an old lady crush who hasn't gotten much love in recent years.  All great actresses that live this long hit this point.  We saw it with Dench and Mirren.  We're seeing it now with Redgrave and Maggie Smith.  If this role is worthy of her, it could definitely manifest.
  5. Margo Martindale - August: Osage County (never nominated)...She's definitely got buzz going for her, and she's a SEASONED character actress...

  6. Juliette Lewis - August: Osage County (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...but this zany gal has never really gotten her due with The Academy and this could be her big comeback after several years laying low.
  7. Cate Blanchett - Monuments Men (1 win out of 5 nominations)...She's one of the most respected actresses in the business, playing the only female role in this magnificent boys' club piece of Oscar bait.  Still, I'm betting on her for Lead Actress in Blue Jasmine this year.
  8. Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station (1 win out of 1 nomination)...It's been seen and her reviews are complimentary, but she's still so fresh off her first nomination and win.
  9. Amy Adams - American Hustle (0 wins out of 4 nominations)...It's getting to where everyone just predicts Amy regardless but I think the Academy might wait a minute with the constant nods until she takes the role that they can give her a WIN for.
  10. Tilda Swinton - Snowpiercer (1 win out of 1 nomination)...I know science fiction films NEVER earn acting nods but she's absolutely AMAZING in the trailer, the Academy owes her a nod after We Need To Talk About Kevin, and it's June so I can put whatever the hell I like in the number ten slot!!!

     I also considered:  Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle (0/2), Julia Roberts (probably Lead) - August: Osage County (1/3), Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine (never nominated), Jane Fonda - The Butler (2/7), Catherine Keener - Captain Phillips (0/3), Penelope Cruz - The Counselor (1/3), Jennifer Garner - Dallas Buyer's Club (n/n), Scarlett Johannssen (n/n), Michelle Pfeiffer - The Family (0/3), Laura Linney - The Fifth Estate (0/3), Amy Adams - Her, Samantha Morten - Her (0/2), Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis (0/1),
Naomi Harris - Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom (n/n), June Squib - Nebraska (n/n), Zoe Saldana - Out of the Furnace (n/n), Jessica Lange - Therese (2/6) & Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave (n/n)


Best Supporting Actor
  1. Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
  2. Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
  3. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis
  4. Josh Brolin - Labor Day
  5. Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County

  6. Jeremy Renner - American Hustle
  7. Matt Damon - The Monuments Men
  8. Matthew McConaughey - The Wolf of Wall Street
  9. Colin Farrell - Saving Mr. Banks
  10. Joaquin Phoenix - The Immigrant
   
     First off, let me say that there are still more possibilities left in this category than I could list without getting encyclopedic, so I have tried to be really tough in whittling it down.  There are three gents in The Butler I would like to have mentioned, another trio in The Fifth Estate.  I would like to apologize to Mr. Renner, whose talent I truly hope leads to another Oscar nod (and maybe win) someday, but I'm not currently betting strongly on Hustle.  That said, I'm thinking...

  1. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis (NEVER NOMINATED!!!)...The film has premiered and Goodman is said to nearly steal the show from Oscar Isaac.  He is probably America's greatest living character actor to never be nominated.  Please, Academy, hear my plea...
  2. Bruce Dern - Nebraska (0 wins from 1 nomination)...Category confusion between here and Best Actor kept Mr. Dern off the buzz list but I'm betting this is where he lands.  With a Best Actor win from Cannes under his belt for the role, a nod here (for the first time since Coming Home in 1978) seems assured.
  3. Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Not only does Mr. Ruffalo have the most  buzz in this category, but he's in the lead by a mile.  The pundits have spoken, and unless Foxcatcher completely implodes, I think we can expect a second nomination to land in his lap easily.
  4. Ewan McGregor - August: Oslo County (never nominated)...I know that everyone is expecting Benedict Cumberbatch to get a nod from this film, but Ewan is waaaay more overdue and was snubbed last year for The Impossible.
  5. Benedict Cumberbatch - 12 Years a Slave (never nominated)...However, the pundits are pushing hard for Mr. Cumberbatch to break through, and this scenario could avoid vote splitting with Mr. McGregor.

  6. Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave (never nominated)...Of course, I'm betting on Fass for Lead Actor in The Counselor at the moment, but if that doesn't happen, I'd bet on this.
  7. Matthew McConaughey - The Wolf of Wall Street (never nominated)...Mr. McConaughey also seems primed for a first nod this year, but I am currently expecting him to get one in Lead (for Mud or Dallas Buyer's Club).
  8. Brad Pitt - The Counselor (0 wins out of 3 nominations)...Brad and Fass are appearing in two films together this year and it would be a lot of fun for them to both get nods from the same one!
  9. Dane DeHaan - Kill Your Darlings (never nominated)...You may not know who Mr. DeHaan is yet, but he's been building his reputation slowly with films like Lawless and The Place Beyond the Pines.  If he blew this away, who knows?
      I'm being a real wuss with narrowing things down this year, but for this slot I'm saying...
  10. Someone From The Monuments Men:
      Matt Damon (0 wins out of 2 nominations in acting categories)...This is, of course, the idea that everyone is jumping on.  Mr. Damon is just one of several talented actors in this ensemble, most of which are just as arguably overdue as he is...
      Bill Murray (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Mr. Murray is without a doubt the finest actor to ever come out of Saturday Night Live.  He infuses even the most serious roles with a sense of whimsy and even the most comedic with a touch of sadness, and yet no Oscar???
      John Goodman (never nominated)...Have I made my feelings clear on this one yet?
      Daniel Craig (never nominated)...and this seems inevitable as well...
      Jean Dujardin (1 win out of 1 nomination)...definitely the least overdue, but who knows?

     ...and then there was...Ben Foster - Ain't Them Bodies Saints (nn), Bradley Cooper - American Hustle (0/1), Robert De Niro - American Hustle (2/7), Jeremy Renner - American Hustle (0/1), Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County (nn), Alec Baldwin - Blue Jasmine (0/1), Javier Bardem - The Counselor (1/3), Jared Leto - Dallas Buyer's Club (nn),  Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher (nn), Tim Roth - Grace of Monaco (0/1), George Clooney - Gravity (1/4), Joaquin Phoenix - The Immigrant (0/3), Josh Brolin - Labor Day (0/1), Will Forte - Nebraska (nn), Woody Harrelson - Out of the Furnace (0/2), Colin Farrell - Saving Mr. Banks (nn), Brad Pitt - 12 Years a Slave (0/3), Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street (0/1)

     Expect a slight delay (and maybe a set of at home viewing reviews and a 2010 rewind set) before I finish these with Lead Acting and The Final Two.  I need a few days to update my buzz first.

  Related articles: What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?, June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Aural Techs, The Visual Techs, The Genre Categories, The Screenplays; We Need To Interrupt Miss Bala (We Need To Talk About Kevin review), "Impossible"y Well Crafted, Mud: Water and Earth Make "Mud", Elena's Brave Law (Lawless review), A Price Beyond This Time (The Place Beyond the Pines review)

2013 Awards Preview - Postscript: Predictions

     Of course, nobody knows anything yet, but I can't resist doing this just for fun.  I haven't even started tracking 86th Oscar Buzz in any significant way yet.  This is just going with my gut. That being said, five of the eventual Best Picture nominees from last year were in my preview series predictions top ten and I made those a couple of weeks earlier.  Three of the other four were in my alternates.  Amour is the only possibility that seemed to really escape me, but how often does a non-English language film actually crack the Best Picture category?  Let's see if I can do any better this year.  Bear in mind, the last couple of alternate slots in any category are usually going to be things I would LIKE to see happen.  Some are a little wild...

  Best Picture
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Nebraska
5. Fruitvale Station
6. The Monuments Men
7. Elysium
8. Before Midnight (ala Toy Story 3 and the expanded field effect)
9. The Butler
10. The Counselor

11. American Hustle
12. The Zero Theorem
13. The Immigrant
14. The Great Gatsby
15. Labor Day
16. The Rover
17. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
18. To The Wonder
19. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
20. The East
  But don't rule out: All Is Lost, August: Osage County, Captain Phillips, The Fifth Estate, Foxcatcher, Grace of Monico, Gravity, Her, Kill Your Darlings, Midnight's Children, Mud, Only God Forgives, The Place Beyond the Pines, Serena, Snowpiercer, Trance, World War Z

  Best Director
1. Steve McQueen - Twelve Years a Slave
2. Martin Scorcese - The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Alexander Payne - Nebraska
4. Ryan Coogler - Fruitvale Station'
5. The Coen Brothers - Inside Llewyn Davis

6. Neil Blomkamp - Elysium
7. Lee Daniels - The Butler
8. George Clooney - The Monuments Men
9. Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
10. Terence Malick - To The Wonder
  Other possibilities: David O Russell - American Hustle, Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips, Ridley Scott - The Couselor, Bill Condon - The Fifth Estate, Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher, Baz Luhrman - The Great Gatsby, James Grey - The Immigrant, Jason Reitman - Labor Day, Deepa Mehta - Midnight's Children, Jeff Nichols - Mud, Nicholas Winding Refn - Only God Forgives, David Michod - The Rover, Susanne Bier - Serena, Jean-Pierre Juenet - The Young and Prodigious Spivet, Terry Gillem - The Zero Theorem

  Best Actor
1. Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station
2. Michael Fassbender - The Counselor
3. Chiawatel Ejiofor - Twelve Years a Slave
4. Robert Redford - All Is Lost
5. Bruce Dern - Nebraska

6. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Forest Whitaker - The Butler
9. Matthew MacConaughey - Mud
10. Christoph Waltz - The Zero Theorem
  Or...Casey Affleck - Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Bradley Cooper - American Hustle, Dennis Quaid - At Any Price, Ethan Hawke - Before Midnight, Toby Jones - Berberian Sound Studio, Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips, Matt Damon - Elysium, Bradley Cooper - The Fifth Estate, Mads Mickelson - The Hunt, Jeremy Renner - The Immigrant, Daniel Radcliffe - Kill Your Darlings, Ryan Gosling - Only God Forgives, Leonardo DiCaprio - The Great Gatsby, Joaquin Phoenix - Her, Idris Elba - Mandela: TheLong Walk To Freedom, Ryan Gosling - The Place Beyond the Pines, Christian Bale - Out of the Furnace, Colin Firth - The Railway Man, Guy Pearce - The Rover, Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks

  Best Actress
1. Nicole Kidman - Grace of Monaco
2. Jessica Chastain - The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers
3. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler
4. Carey Mulligan - The Great Gatsby
5. Rooney Mara - Ain't Them Bodies Saints

6. Naomie Watts - Diana
7. Sandra Bullock - Gravity
8. Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant
9. Julie Delpy - Before Midnight
10. Susan Sarandan - The Company You Keep
     I also thought about: Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle, Meryl Streep - August: Osage County, Rooney Mara - Her, Saoirse Ronan - How I Live Now, Mia Wasikowska - Madame Bovary, Naomi Harris - Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom, Shaillene Woodley - The Spectacular Now

  Best Supporting Actor
1. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis
2. Robert DeNiro - American Hustle
3. Brad Pitt - The Counselor
4. Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher
5. Ewan McGregor - August: Osage County

6. Michael Fassbender - Twelve Years a Slave
7. Robin Williams - The Butler
8. Matthew MacConaughey - The Wolf of Wall Street
9. Will Forte - Nebraska
10. Ezra Miller - Madame Bovary
  Also: Ben Foster - Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Jeremy Renner - American Hustle, Chris Cooper - August: Osage County, Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County, John Cusack - The Butler, Michael Fassbender - Frank, Tim Roth - Grace of Monaco, Tobey McGuire - The Great Gatsby, Joachin Phoenix - The Immigrant, Justin Timberlake - Inside Llewyn Davis, Matt Damon - The Monuments Men, Jean Dujardin - The Monuments Men, John Goodman - The Monuments Men, Casey Affleck - Out of the Furnace, Bradley Cooper - The Place Beyond the Pines, Scoot McNairy - The Rover, Robert Pattinson - The Rover, Paul Giamatti - Twelve Years a Slave, Brad Pitt - Twelve Years a Slave, Ben Whishaw - The Zero Theorem

  Best Supporting Actress
1. Jane Fonda - The Butler
2. Viola Davis - The Disappearence of Eleanor Rigby: Hers or His, not sure which
3. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
4. Cate Blanchett - The Monuments Men
5. Alfre Woodard - Twelve Years a Slave

6. Amy Adams - American Hustle
7. Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station
8. Catherine Keener - Captain Phillips
9. Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Ellen Page - The East
  And then you have: Juliette Lewis - August: Osage County, Melissa Leo - The Butler, Parker Posey - Grace of Monaco, Samantha Morten - Her, Michelle Pfeiffer - Malavita, Kristen Scott Thomas - Only God Forgives, Zoe Saldana - Out of the Furnace, Quvenzhane Wallis - Twelve Years a Slave, Judy Davis - The Young and Prodigious Spivet

  Adapted Screenplay
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Before Midnight
3. The Butler
4. The Monuments Men
5. Much Ado About Nothing

6. The Great Gatsby
7. Prince Avalanche
8. Midnight's Children
9. Snowpiercer
10. Man of Steel
  In the running: The Fifth Estate, The Spectacular Now, Two Faces of January

  Original Screenplay
1. Inside Llewyn Davis
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Fruitvale Station
4. Nebraska
5. The Immigrant

6. The Counselor
7. Elysium
8. American Hustler
9. The Zero Theorem
10. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
  Also keeping an eye on: All Is Lost, Captain Phillips, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His and/or Hers, The East, Foxcatcher, Frank, Grace of Monaco, Kill Your Darlings, Mud, Only God Forgives, Her, The Place Beyond the Pines, The Rover, Trance, The Young and Prodigious Spivet, World War Z

  Best Cinematography
1. The Monuments Men
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
4. Nebraska
5. To The Wonder

6. Elysium
7. The Zero Theorem
8. The Wolf of Wall Street
9. All Is Lost
10. Only God Forgives

  Best Editing
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Elysium
5. The Monuments Men

6. Fruitvale Station
7. The Butler
8. Man of Steel
9. The East
10. The Counselor

  Best Production Design
1. The Monuments Men
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Elysium
4. Twelve Years a Slave
5. The Butler

6. Oblivion
7. Grace of Monaco
8. Kill Your Darlings
9. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
10. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

  Best Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. Grace of Monaco
3. The Butler
4. Oz the Great and Powerful
5. The Immigrant

6. Diana
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Twelve Years a Slave
9. The Monuments Men
10. The Rover

  Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
1. The Butler
2. Oz the Great and Powerful
3. World War Z

4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Grace of Monaco
6. Only God Forgives

  Best Original Score
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Man of Steel
3. The Monuments Men
4. World War Z
5. Oldboy

6. Oz the Great and Powerful
7. Snowpiercer
8. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
9. Elysium
10. The Zero Theorem

  Best Original Song
1. Was there an Original Song in Sapphires?
2. Planes
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Oz the Great and Powerful
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

  Best Sound Editing
1. Elysium
2. Man of Steel
3. The Monuments Men
4. All is Lost
5. Only God Forgives

6. World War Z
7. Oz the Great and Powerful
8. Snowpiercer
9. Twelve Years a Slave
10. Captain Phillips

  Best Sound Mixing
1. The Monuments Men
2. Man of Steel
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Elysium
5. World War Z

6. Only God Forgives
7. All is Lost
8. Twelve Years a Slave
9. The Wolf of Wall Street
10. Captain Phillips

  Best Visual Effects
1. Elysium
2. Man of Steel
3. World War Z
4. Snowpiercer
5. The Europa Report

6. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
7. Gravity
8. The Great Gatsby
9. All is Lost
10. Oblivion

  Best Documentary Feature
1. Stories We Tell
2. The Act of Killing
3. Blood Brother
4. We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks
5. Room 237

  Best Foreign Language Film
1. Child's Pose
2. The Hunt
3. Gloria
4. The Past
5. Le Grande Bellazza

6. Closed Curtain
7. Venus in Fur
8. Goodbye to Language
9. Attilla Marcel
10. Mood Indigo

  Best Animated Feature
1. Frozen
2. Planes
3. The Wind Rises
4. Monsters University
5. Hell and Back

6. Epic
7. Ernest and Celestine
8. Leo the Lion
9. Despicable Me Too
10. The Croods

     Related Articles:  Upcoming 2013 Award Season Preview: Part One: Pulpy Players, Part Two: Specialties That Might Spellbind, Part Three: Little Pics That Might Could, Part Four: The Usual Suspects, Part 5 - Because I Said So, 2012 Preview Postscript - Predictions

Arantino Explained (The T is Invisible)

Or

The Film in Which Tarantino Blows Tarantino to Smithereens

     Like most American college students in the early to mid nineties, I found Quentin Tarantino to be the herald of a new age of American cinema when I first discovered Reservoir Dogs and Pulp Fiction.  Twenty years later, the Geek Guru of Film may STILL be trying to top those early triumphs, but even his weakest efforts show more creativity and cleverness than ninety percent of what's available at the box office.

     Django Unchained, however, is far from Tarantino's weakest effort.  It is a film with flaws, but many great moments as well.  I would rank it somewhere in the middle of the pack...not quite as strong as Inglorious Basterds, but still a bit ahead of the Kill Bill series (all of which I love, by the way).  It is also pure Tarantino: abrasive, irreverent, challenging and completely self aware of its more sophomoric tendencies.
     Which brings us, I suppose, to the obligatory accusations of racism thrown around when a white boy makes a film about slavery in which the "n-word" is tossed around casually and often.  Personally, I think that being offended by one of this man's movies is a lot like being offended by South Park:  you make yourself look far more ridiculous by your reaction than the movie was capable of making you look.  Quentin is an equal opportunity offender and lover of all mankind, which should be obvious to anyone who actually pays attention to his films.  The use of the "n-word" is not only historically accurate, but absolutely necessary to capture the thematic tone of ignorance and disregard for human rights that is central to the piece.  As for the institution of slavery itself, I don't think any film has ever presented it in all its disgusting barbarism in quite the stomach turning manner of Django.
     As I mentioned before, the film does have a couple of flaws, so let's get those out of the way first.  I regret to say that while Django the character is written brilliantly as a sort of Blaxploitation cowboy super-hero, Jamie Foxx's interpretation of said character falls a little bit short.  It's not a bad performance, and he does have some wonderful moments, but in its totality his performance lacks something of the bigger-than-life-yet-utterly-believable quality that his three primary co-stars deliver in spades.  Foxx has proven himself adept at both comedy and drama, but doesn't quite seem to catch the groove of the weird hybrid flavor essential to this material.
     I would also say that while Mr. Tarantino drew four wonderful, memorable characters at the center of this yarn, some of the peripheral talents were underutilized.  I was quite excited to hear about Kerry Washington's involvement in this project.  She is a highly talented young actress, the only junior member of the cast of For Coloured Girls to hold her own when playing against her veteran cast mates.  I had hoped that participation in this film would expose her ability to a wider audience, but she is given so little to do or say that I am afraid her role will quickly be forgotten.  Walton Goggins, similarly, seems to be placed in the picture merely to look googly-eyed in the background.  While there is no actor better suited to this task, the man has MUCH more to offer.
     The only other real fault I found with Django is an uneven quality in the plot structure by which the climax pales in comparison to the bigger, wilder battle scene that proceeds it.  The fault, however, may not lie in the script at all, but in Mr. Foxx's unwillingness to quite take his character all the way over the top with feeling.  The character herd has thinned somewhat by the final scene, and working alone the actor seems unprepared to upstage what the ensemble as a whole was able to pull off.
     In Mr. Foxx's defense, it IS a pretty amazing ensemble to try and upstage.  The clear stand-outs, however are Leonardo DiCaprio and (ESPECIALLY) Samuel L. Jackson.  I have always held that Mr. DiCaprio is a far more talented character actor than leading man, and his first turn in a truly villainous capacity has gone a long way toward proving me right.  It was refreshing to see the familiar actor truly doing something NEW, impressing me in a way that I don't know he quite has since Gilbert Grape, certainly not since The Aviator.  His acting has usually been at its best when there was a darkness to the characters he was playing (The Aviator, Shutter Island, Inception) and diving into the deep end of that ocean has produced one of his best turns yet.
     Samuel L. Jackson is one of those great actors who could never quite transcend the enormity of his own personality.  I have always asserted that all of his characters, while entertaining, employ very similar vocal inflection patterns, postures, and modes of physical expression. In other words, Sam L always played some variation of Sam L.  I will say this no more. In Django, he completely disappears into the character of Steven.  His customary mannerisms just weren't there.
     However, it is the interaction between these two characters that creates much of the sheer joy of viewing this picture.  Their relationship is perhaps that most complicated between any of the major characters.  The scene where they conspire in the study, away from prying eyes and ears, is absolutely outstanding and tells you so much about the characters in such a short burst of time.
     All this doting on his two snubbed compatriots should do nothing to minimize the contribution of Chritoph Waltz and the performance that recently nabbed him his second Best Supporting Actor Oscar.  Waltz actually plays the outsider in this world and it is through his eyes that we see the true horror inherent in it.  He is charming and bigger than life but still completely accessible.
     Long as this review is becoming, I would remiss not to take a minute to praise the excellent work of Django's production team.  Fred Raskin faced a daunting task stepping into the shoes of Tarantino's longtime editor Sally Menke, (who recently passed away) and performed his duties admirably.  Cinematographer Robert Richardson was fully deserving of his Oscar nomination providing some of his finest camerawork to date.  It is also easy to see why many considered costumer Sharen Davis's lack of a nomination a snub.  Foxx and DiCaprio in particular had some A-mazing outfits.  Django also makes fantastic use of music with one of the best and most diverse soundtracks of the year.
     On a final note, Inglorious Basterds and this film seem to be inviting a third revenge fantasy focused on righting the wrongs of history to finish the trilogy.  What's next, Quentin?  The remnants of the native South American tribes invade the Vatican to steal their gold?  A mysterious plague affecting only Republicans strikes the country and a team of gay doctors refuse treatment?  Let your mind run wild, Mr. Tarantino, it's what we count on you for.
   
     

Final 85th Oscar Winner Predictions

     This doesn't really need a preface, does it?  Cross your fingers (or webbed feet, or whatever) and check out my live tweets tonight during the ceremony.

  Best Picture: Argo
         alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
         wild card: Amour
          should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

  Best Director: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
          alternate: David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
          wild card: Michael Haneke - Amour
          should have been nominated:  Christopher Nolan - Dark Knight Returns (sorry, Mr. Affleck, you were great)

  Best Actor: um...Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
          alternate:  Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
          wild card:  Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
          should have been nominated:  Richard Gere - Arbitrage

  Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
          alternate: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
          wild card: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
          should have been nominated: Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone

  Best Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
          alternate: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
          wild card: Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
          should have been nominated: Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild

  Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
          alternate: Sally Field - Lincoln
          wild card: Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
          should have been nominated: Salma Hayek - Savages

  Best Original Screenplay: Amour
          alternate: Django Unchained
          wild card: Zero Dark Thirty
          should have been nominated: Looper

  Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
          alternate: Lincoln
          wild card: Silver Linings Playbook
          should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

  Best Animated Feature:  Wreck-It Ralph
          alternate: Frankenweenie
          wild card: Brave
          should have been nominated: A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's
        Graham Chapman

  Best Documentary Feature: Searching For Sugarman
           alternate: Gatekeepers
           wild card: 5 Broken Cameras
           should have been nominated: Queen of Versailles

  Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
           alternate: No
           wild card: War Witch
           should have been nominated: Rust and Bone

  Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
          alternate: Skyfall
          wild card: Lincoln
          should have been nominated: Beasts of the Southern Wild

  Best Editing: Argo
          alternate: Zero Dark Thirty
          wild card: Life of Pi
          should have been nominated: Cloud Atlas

  Best Production Design: Anna Karenina
           alternate: Les Miserables
           wild card: Life of Pi
           should have been nominated: Cloud Atlas

  Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
            alternate: Les Miserables
            wild card: Mirror Mirror
            should have been nominated: A Royal Affair

  Best Make-Up and Hairstyling: Les Miserables
             alternate: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
             wild card: Hitchcock
             should have been nominated: Cloud Atlas

  Best Score: Life of Pi
              alternate: Skyfall
              wild card: Lincoln
              should have been nominated: Beasts of the Southern Wild

  Best Song: Skyfall - "Skyfall"
              alternate: Les Miserables - "Suddenly"
              wild card: Ted - "Everybody Needs a Best Friend"
              should have been nominated: numerous numbers from Lawless & Django Unchained

  Best Sound Editing: Skyfall
               alternate: Life of Pi
               wild card: Argo
               should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Returns

  Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
                alternate: Skyfall
                wild card: Argo
                should have been nominated: The Impossible

  Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
                 alternate: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
                 wild card: Marvel's Avengers

  Short Film Animated: Paperman
                 alternate: Head Over Heels
                 wild card: Adam and Dog
         
  Short Film Live-Action: Buzkashi Boys
                  alternate: Curfew
                  wild card: Death of a Shadow
 
  Short Film Documentary: Innocente
                  alternate: Open Heart
                  wild card: Mondays at Racine
          

Oscar Winners Predictions & Buzz - Supporting Players

     One of these races is even more set in stone than last time, while the other is even more up for grabs.  As always, buzz rankings come first, with previous placements listed in parenthesis (see how far Jacki Weaver has come in this race?).  My commentary closes out each category.  Ladies first...

Supporting Actress
  1.(1) Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
  2.(2) Sally Field - Lincoln
  3.(4) Amy Adams - The Master
  4.(3) Helen Hunt - The Sessions
  5.(9) Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
  Leaving the rankings:  Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Ann Dowd - Compliance, Samantha Barks - Les Miserables, Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy, Judi Dench - Skyfall
     There are about seven categories that I feel are such done deals that I could predict the winner today with great confidence.  This is one of them...
  1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables...She won all four of the major precursors and has yet to win an Oscar.  I'd say the time to dream her dream is right now.
  2. Sally Field - Lincoln...She has never lost and she won this year with the Boston and New York critics, but I'm afraid that is probably all she's gonna get.
  3. Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook...Weinstein is pushing this film hard enough that this upset seems SLIGHTLY more probable than the remaining two scenarios while still being nearly impossible.
  4. Helen Hunt - The Sessions...Like Ms. Field, I believe that Ms. Hunt will have her first experience at LOSING an Oscar race this year.
  5. Amy Adams - The Master...With four nominations and no wins, she is arguably the most overdue competitor in the race, but with The Weinstein Co. concentrating its 11th hour campaign tactics around Silver Linings, she seems likely to stay that way.

Supporting Actor
  1.(2) Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
  2.(3) Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
  3.(8) Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
  4.(1) Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
  5.(5) Alan Arkin - Argo
  Leaving the Rankings:  Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained, Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike, Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild, Javier Bardem - Skyfall, John Goodman - Argo
     I'm not sure I'll feel ready to call this category the night before the Oscars, but right now I'm feeling...
  1. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook...Oddly enough, he hasn't won anything yet, just been nominated everywhere.  He's been omnipresent the last couple of weeks though, and it is easy to picture the beloved veteran "getting his turn" in a year when the wins have been spread around among most of his fellow nominees already.
  2. Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained...Although if you go by wins, Waltz took the Globe and BAFTA and has the forward momentum, being something of a surprise contender who's won almost everything he's been up for.
  3. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln...Which is certainly not to discount the fact that this is VERY much a three way race and Jones's SAG winning performance is one of the best of his career.
  4. Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master...Another fantastic performance, but Weinstein isn't pushing this film as hard as Silver or Django, and that Critics Choice victory seems like a long time ago.
  5. Alan Arkin - Argo...Lucky to be here instead of co-star John Goodman.

Related Articles:   Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz: Of Snubs and Triumphs (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing & Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Finishing Touch Techs (Editing & Visual Effects), Toons of Any Length (Animated Feature & Animated Short), Docs of Any Length (Documentary Feature & Documentary Short), Screenplays (Adapted & Original), I Think You "Argo"ing to Love It!, "Lincoln" Perks, Best That the Summer Wields? (Beasts of the Southern Wild review), Acting Master Classes in Private "Sessions", Didn't Quite Take "Flight", Can You "Master" Your Nature?, The Best Huntsman's Shadow (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel review), 23? You Don't Play Like A Sequel Over 2! (Skyfall review), Where Did the Magic Spider Go? (Magic Mike review), 

"Lincoln" Perks

     Lights rise on the nation's sixteenth President sitting and speaking with two black soldiers.  He asks them questions in a tone that is patient, kind, and just a little paternal.  One soldier is shamelessly servile, almost pandering in a way that irritated one friend of mine, making him feel as if his race was represented as being too worshipful of Lincoln.  The other soldier, though, was hard on the president, asking him difficult questions, many that Abe was unprepared to answer without more thought.  Two white soldiers march up and seem a little dismissive of their "compatriots of color" (if you will).  Lincoln asks the new arrivals if they can recite what he said at Gettysburg and the boys try to stumble through it, but Lincoln ends up having to help them with the first few lines before sending everyone on their way.  As the soldier's walk off, the one who had given Lincoln a hard time can be heard finishing the speech, effortlessly and word for word.  It is obvious that while he continues to hold the President accountable for upholding them, the words themselves he holds in a certain reverence.  So begins Lincoln, setting the tone for all that is to follow.  It is a film that is full of big ideas, and gives you much to ponder.  It avoids becoming TOO ponderous, however, because it is also a movie with a big heart, kept under tight wraps, but leaking little golden veins of sentimentality.
     The intellectual meat of the picture (and there is a lot, questions in conundrums in ethical puzzles) must undeniably be accredited to screenwriter Tony Kushner's rather inspired script.  This is only Mr. Kushner's second screenplay (he also collaborated with Spielberg on Munich), but he was already well known as a playwright because of the two Angels in America plays (which are amazing, maybe I'll review the excellent HBO adaptation in a later article).  Here he tells a story of great men, fighting battles of great import, but without cleaning it all up to make it more palatable.  It feels more history than mythology in a way that movies about beloved historical figures rarely do.  This was a man who had to compromise and had to occasionally bend his own ethical principals in a microcosmic manner to maintain the path to his goal in the bigger picture.  Lincoln is a pensive, talky film, but one that has worthwhile things to say.
     Steven Spielberg works best when his tone is respectable but flirting with cheese.  Sometimes he flirts heavily (Raiders, ET), sometimes he's a little more subtle (Close Encounters, Saving Private Ryan) and every great once in a while he's able to keep his heart in check enough to be really, really coy about it (Schindler's List, and now Lincoln).  Spielberg is like a great conductor here.  He assembled the best orchestral team you could ask for, was given a great composition to lead them through and then weaves the sounds together like the seasoned master that he is when at his best.
     It is almost a given at this point that Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win an Oscar for Lincoln.  Loathe as I am to go along with awards that were practically bestowed months ahead of time based on "brand name" alone, I have to admit that he's one of the favored contenders in The Froggies when I get to the Best of 2012 series in a couple of months.  It's an amazing performance, in which this true master thespian completely transforms into the man he portrays.  Great attention has obviously been given to every aspect of what he does onscreen:  the accent, the posture, every movement of the muscles around his eyes.  He takes Abraham Lincoln, the most loved and hated American figure of his day, and makes him so affable and funny even among those who despise him.  At the same time you can never look at the man without seeing the weight he feels upon his shoulders and his soul.
     I admit, I am a bit biased in the following assessment.  I love Sally Field.  But I think that if I were entirely objective, I would still love her performance in this picture.  I can think of no other actress better suited for the sort of high melodrama inherent in the character of Mary Todd Lincoln.  Her Mary is a woman of such simultaneous fragility and strength that she seems almost surreal, but you absolutely believe in her.  There is this one party scene where her and Tommy Lee Jones go at it that is one of the real high lights of the film for me.
     Speaking of Mr. Jones, he is having a great year.  He may have gotten famous for playing tough guys, but it is films like No Country For Old Men, Hope Springs, and now Lincoln in which he really shines, playing tough guys who are only tough because they must be to protect their more tender, secret hearts.  I really think that his work in those three films may be his best ever for me.  This actor is proving to be like a fine wine, and he excels in roles that require wisdom and maturity.  His portrayal of Thaddeus Stevens boasts plenty of both.
     In a year of impressive ensemble pieces, Lincoln is easily among the best.  David Strathairn is marvelously officious.  James Spader makes incredibly good use of his screen time as a despicable fellow working for the good guys, partnered ably by John Hawkes.  Hal Holbrook, Jackie Earle Haley, Walton Goggins...I could go on.  I do feel that Joseph Gordon-Levitt's role as Lincoln's son was less well developed than he could have been.  Only in his scenes do I feel as if the drama gets a little less restrained.  I wouldn't call his work weak, but it is one of the film's aspects that bears the least strength.
   The production team on Lincoln did a fantastic job.  All elements are impressive to the active observer, yet far from obtrusive to the passive one.  The picture received six craft nods, and Joanna Johnston (Costume Design), Michael Kahn (Editing), John Williams (Score), Rick Carter (Production Design) & Jim Erickson (Set Decoration, also covered under the Production Design nomination) and the Sound Mixing team of Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom & Ronald Judkins all made award worthy contributions to this film.  I'm still confounded that the excellent make-up work went unrewarded.
     What really blew me away unexpectedly was the work of master cinematographer Janusz Kaminski.  I never expected a film that was so packed with scenes of deals being struck in cigar smoke filled back rooms could be the sort of visually stimulating experience that this movie was.  The use of light in Lincoln is brilliant, the use of the shadows that abound in a world where the only light comes from candles, lanterns, and the sun.  Even the aforementioned cigar smoke (as it filters through candlelight and frames the characters hazily) is used in each shot to glorious effect.  There is a dream sequence early on in the picture that may be the most beautiful imagery I have seen on film this year.  This is simply one of the most brilliantly shot films of 2012.  I should never have underestimated it so quickly.
     Which, in truth, is kind of how I feel about the whole project.  I was very, very slow to begin taking Lincoln seriously in this Oscar race.  It never cracked my top ten Best Picture contenders until it previewed to great acclaim.  Even then, it took a long time to creep up that list.  You must forgive me.  War Horse was like the unattractive love child of Shenandoah & Old Yeller by comparison to this piece.    Spielberg has come back with a true vengeance, giving us one of his best, a film that never goes in for the big cry.  Instead it bombards the mind, and then plucks gently at the heartstrings with a surgeon's pinpoint precision. 5 of 5 stars.
   
Related posts:  The Sound Hope Sparks (Hope Springs review), Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz: Of Snubs and Triumphs (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing & Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Finishing Touch Techs (Editing & Visual Effects)

Of Snubs and Triumphs

     Okay, so the Academy's nomination announcements were far more shocking than usual.  Best Director alone almost gave me a heart attack.  Forgive me for not posting some immediate reaction, but it took me a minute to get my head back on straight.  I decided to attack these nominations in the most traditional manner, regardless of what an unconventional race it has turned into.   So...without further ado, here are thirteen winners, seventeen losers, and one who did  both.  Let's get hoppin...

13 Big Winners

  13.  Kon-Tiki - This Norwegian adventure flick was ranked about eighth in buzz out of the nine films on the Academy's Foreign Language Film short list.  It still doesn't have a chance in hell of beating Amour, but the nomination is a triumph in itself.
  12. The Sound Team from Argo - The film was considered an outside shot for either sound category, and it managed to score nods in both.  The movie needed SOME good news this week.
  11. Pirates!  Band of Misfits - This Aardman studios production managed to squeeze out both Rise of the Guardians and all four G-Kids movies to grab the fifth slot in Animated Feature.  Maybe AMPAS was trying to correct themselves for snubbing the far better Aardman film Arthur Christmas in this category last year.
  10. 5 Broken Cameras - This was one of the lowest profile documentaries still eligible for a nod.  Many a documentary that flies below everyone's radar up to the day of nominations turns around and wins it all, so who knows.
  9. The Snow White Story - Not only did Mirror Mirror grab a half expected nod in Costume Design, but Snow White and the Huntsman snagged quite unanticipated recognition in both Costume and Visual Effects.  Gooo Snow!
  8. Jackie Weaver - It's not like she unseated some presumed lock to get her nomination, but she was far from the most buzzed about contender.  Still, I had a sneaking suspicion that this could be a possibility, leading me to place her in my Best Supporting Actress Wild Card slot.  This is the Australian actress,s second nomination, having come out of nowhere the first time for Animal Kingdom.
  7. Anna Karenina - Mixed critical reception may have killed this movie's Best Picture hopes early on in the game, but it still managed to pull off four tech nods, which should still be enough to at least give DVD returns an "Oscar boost".
  6. John Gatins - The Flight scripter managed to squeeze out a nod ahead of more buzzed about (and, in my opinion, stronger) scripts for The Master and Looper.
  5. The Silver Linings Playbook - Everyone expected this film to do well with Picture and Screenplay nods in addition at least a couple of acting nominations, but FOUR acting nominations plus Director and Editing were real wish fulfillment for the picture's fans, making it one of the presumed Best Picture front runners.
  4. Joachin Phoenix - Everyone was holding their breath to see if the Academy would hold Phoenix's big mouth against him and leave him out of the Best Actor race this year.  Thank goodness they didn't, because his performance was definitely one of 2012's best.  His comments about the awards race HAVE probably dashed any hopes he had of WINNING, but at least he's (mostly) been forgiven.
  3. Amour - It's been a long time since a Foreign Language Film broke into the Best Picture race, but pundits have been playing with the idea that director Haneke's latest would do just that, and it did.  Not only that, it secured nods for Director, Screenplay, Actress, and Foreign Language Film.
  2. Steven Spielberg and Lincoln - With Affleck and Bigelow both out of the running, it would seem that Spielberg's win for Director (and, most likely, the film's for Picture) are all but assured.  However, it is still early, and Life of Pi is looking stronger all the time.
  1. Benh Zeitlen and Beasts of the Southern Wild - After the snubs at SAG and the Globes, every prognosticator and their brother began to slowly but surely eliminate Beasts from ANY consideration at the Oscars this year.  Not only did it pull out the Picture, Actress, and Screenplay nods that I and a few other true believers never stopped predicting, but it pulled out a Best Directing nomination that even I had totally given up on.  I have never been happier to get one of my predictions WRONG!  Granted, I would have loved to have seen the film receive much deserved recognition in Score and Cinematography, but I'll take what I can get in the year of...

Seventeen (mostly) Regrettable Losers
  17.  A bevy of Best Supporting Actress Hopefuls - The fifth slot in this race was WIDE open, but by my tabulations, at least five other ladies were ahead of Ms. Weaver in buzz.  They were...Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy, Ann Dowd - Compliance, Samantha
Barks - Les Miserables, and Judi Dench - Skyfall.  While I'm sure none of these ladies were counting on getting into this highly competitive race, they still have my condolences.
  16. Hitchcock - No one was expecting this movie to be an awards juggernaut at this point, but I'm sure they were hoping for SOMETHING beyond Make-Up and Hairstyling.
  15. Nepotism - Bryce Dallas Howard (offspring of Ron) failed to secure a Best Live Action Short nod for her shortlisted piece:  When You Find Me.
  14. The Master - I suppose it could have been a lot worse (Phoenix did get his actor nod), and we all suspected that a picture nod was out.  Still, there were a host of technical nods (score, costume, production design, etc.) that this meticulously made film missed out on.
  13. Cloud Atlas - We all knew that above the line nods were probably out of the question, but nothing?  This was one of the most ambitious films of the year, and it was technically sound no matter what else you thought about it.
  12. Sharen Davis - It must hurt to have your worthy costuming work on Django Unchained passed over for the overly showy outfits of Mirror Mirror.  If your name was erroneously leaked to the press as a nominee, it must be even worse.
  11. Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson's little mini-masterpiece may have landed a screenplay nod, but I'm sure they were hoping for a little more (like the Best Picture nod they must have JUST missed).
  10. Rian Johnson - Looper might have been the best screenplay of the year period, and this young auteur lost a nod to Flight?
  9. Marion Cotillard - She is rapidly becoming one of those actresses that everyone predicts every year, who never gets nominated.  Rust and Bone did not  break this trend.
  8. The Songs of Brave - With Skyfall and Les Miserables in the hunt, no one was expecting a win here, but everyone was expecting an Original Song nod for Pixar.  Didn't happen.
  7. The Intouchables - This was supposed to be Amour's top competition in Foreign Language Film:  top U.S. and world box office, backed by the Weinsteins...not to be.
  6. G-Kids - This Indie animation distributor has managed to slip into the Animated Feature race at the last second for two years running.  That streak is now broken as From Up On Poppy Hill, The Painting, The Rabbi's Cat, and Zarafa all failed to make the cut.
  5. Leonardo DiCaprio - Like Cotillard, he is turning into the perpetual bridesmaid of the Oscars.  Still, they had to go with five guys who are already former winners over Leo?
  4. Katherine Bigelow - Yeah, she just won Best Director last time out, but she has won the MOST accolades from critics groups and didn't even get a nomination here.
  3. John Hawkes - So, everybody knew that we had six strong contenders for Best Actor and only five slots.  However, if there was one performance (outside of Day-Lewis in Lincoln) that everyone thought was a lock in the category, it was John Hawkes in The Sessions.  It just goes to show:  nobody knows anything.
  2. The Dark Knight Rises - This is one of the year's best films.  We had all accepted the fact that it was probably out of the running for anything above  the line due to its subject matter and unfortunate connection to the Aurora shooting, but come on Academy!  No tech nods?  A TOTAL shut out?  Someday we will look back and laugh at Oscar on this one, I promise you.
  1. Ben Affleck - I don't even know what to say.  I was still predicting Mr. Affleck to WIN best director this year.  Sorry, Ben, better luck next time.

And One That Did Both
  The Weinstein Company - WIN:  Two Best Picture slots and half the Acting nominations.
                                           LOSE:  Documentary, Foreign Language, Song (for Lawless), and most of the tech awards.

     Stay tuned for analysis and handicapping of all the major categories starting soon and running right up to the big day.
                                                                                       Froggy

Related Posts:  Nov/Dec Oscar Buzz and Predictions: It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing and Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Hairstyling and Make-up & Costume), Pretty Picture Techs (Production Design and Cinematography), Finishing Touch Techs, Toons of Any Length (Animated Short and Animated Feature), Docs of Any Length (Documentary Feature and Documentary Short), Screenplays (Adapted and Original), Supporting Performances, Actor and Actress, Foreign Films (and Live Action Shorts), Conclusion (Picture and Director), I Think You "Argo"ing to Love It!, Bernie! On a Ledge of Misfits (Pirates! Band of Misfits review), Being Margaret's Mirror (Mirror Mirror review), The Best Huntsman's Shadow (Snow White and the Huntsman and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel reviews), Can You "Master" Your Nature?, Twist Until You Are Loopey! (Looper review), Best That the Summer Wields (Beasts of the Southern Wild review),
23? You Don't Play Like a Sequel Over 2! (Skyfall review), Cloudy Connections (Cloud Atlas review),
Promarlius Kingdom (Moonrise Kingdom review), Elena's Brave Law (Brave and Lawless reviews), Acting Master Classes in Private "Sessions", The Dark Knight Transcends, Final Pre-Nomination Oscar Predictions

Final Pre-Nomination Oscar Predictions

     With the announcement of this year's Academy Award nominations less than 24 hours away, here is my final word on the matter.  For each category, I list my ACTUAL predictions first, followed by an Alternate (the film most likely to be nominated in place of one of my picks), a Wild Card pick (something that the buzz does not support at all, but I feel COULD slide in as a surprise nod), and For Your Consideration pick (something with NO chance at being nominated, but that I feel deserves it more than some of the ones that will).  Let's begin:


Best Picture
     The trick here is figuring out what the buzz is telling us about how MANY nominees we will have in the mix.  I have inserted breaks in the top ten wherever the buzz indicates a possible cut-off exists.
  1. Argo
  2. Lincoln
  3. Zero Dark Thirty
  4. Les Miserables
  5. Life of Pi
  6. Silver Linings Playbook
  7. Django Unchained
  8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  9. Moonrise Kingdom
  10. Amour
   Alternate: Skyfall
  Wild Card: The Intouchables
  For Your Consideration: The Sound of My Voice

Best Director
  1. Ben Affleck - Argo
  2. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
  3. Katherine Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
  4. Ang Lee - Life of Pi
  5. David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
   Alternate: Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
  Wild Card: Michael Haneke - Amour
  For Your Consideration - Tom Tykwer & the Wachowskis - Cloud Atlas

Best Actor
  1.  Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
  2.  John Hawkes - The Sessions
  3.  Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
  4.  Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
  5.  Denzel Washington - Flight
  Alternate: Joachin Phoenix - The Master
  Wild Card: Jamie Foxx - Django Unchained
  For Your Consideration: Suraj Sharma - Life of Pi, Joseph Gordon-Levitt - Looper

Best Actress
  1.  Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
  2.  Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
  3.  Naomi Watts - The Impossible
  4.  Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
  5.  Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
  Alternate: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
  Wild Card: Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea
  For Your Consideration:  Anne Hathaway - The Dark Knight Rises

Best Supporting Actor
  1. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
  2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
  3. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
  4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
  5. Alan Arkin - Argo
   Alternate:  Matthew MacConaughey - Magic Mike
  Wild Card: Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
  For Your Consideration:  Mikkel Boe Folsgaard - A Royal Affair

Best Supporting Actress
  1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
  2. Sally Field - Lincoln
  3. Helen Hunt - Sessions
  4. Amy Adams - The Master
  5. Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
  Alternate: Ann Dowd - Compliance
  Wild Card: Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
  For Your Consideration: Doona Bae - Cloud Atlas

Best Original Screenplay
  1. Django Unchained
  2. Moonrise Kingdom
  3. The Master
  4. Zero Dark Thirty
  5. Looper
  Alternate: Flight
  Wild Card: Middle of Nowhere
  For Your Consideration: The Cabin in the Woods


Best Adapted Screenplay
  1. Lincoln
  2. Argo
  3. Silver Linings Playbook
  4. Life of Pi
  5. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  Alternate: Perks of Being a Wallflower
  Wild Card: The Sessions
  For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas

Best Animated Feature
  1. Frankenweenie
  2. Paranorman
  3. Brave
  4. The Painting
  5. Wreck-It Ralph
  Alternate: Rise of the Guardians
  Wild Card: The Rabbi's Cat
  For Your Consideration: A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman

Best Foreign Language Film
  1. Amour (Austria)
  2. The Intouchables (France)
  3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)
  4. War Witch (Canada)
  5. No (Chile)
  Alternate: Beyond the Hills (Romania)
  Wild Card: Kon-Tiki (Norway)
  For Your Consideration: Elena (Russia)

Best Documentary
  1. Searching For Sugar Man
  2. How To Survive a Plague
  3. The Imposter
  4. The Gatekeepers
  5. The House I Live In
  Alternate: The Invisible War
  Wild Card: This Is Not a Film
  For Your Consideration: Marley

Best Cinematography
  1. Life of Pi
  2. Skyfall
  3. Lincoln
  4. Django Unchained
  5. Les Miserables
  Alternate:  The Master
  Wild Card: Beasts of the Southern Wild
  For Your Consideration: The Dark Knight Rises


Best Costume
  1. Anna Karenina
  2. Les Miserables
  3. Lincoln
  4. Django Unchained
  5. Cloud Atlas
  Alternate: Mirror Mirror
  Wild Card: A Royal Affair
  For Your Consideration: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Editing
  1. Argo
  2. Zero Dark Thirty
  3. Lincoln
  4. Life of Pi
  5. Les Miserables
  Alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
  Wild Card: Skyfall
  For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
  1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  2. Lincoln
  3. Les Miserables
  Alternate: Hitchcock
  Wild Card: Looper
  For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas

Best Music (Original Score)
  1. Lincoln
  2. Life of Pi
  3. The Master
  4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  5. Argo
  Alternate: Cloud Atlas
  Wild Card: Zero Dark Thirty
  For Your Consideration: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Music (Original Song)
  1. Les Miserables - Suddenly
  2. Skyfall - Skyfall
  3. Brave - Learn Me Right
  4. Django Unchained - Ancora Qui
  5. Life of Pi - Pi's Lullaby
  Alternate: Paul Williams Is Still Alive - Still Alive
  Wild Card: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Song of the Lonely Mountain, Frankenweenie - Strange Love
  For Your Consideration: Any of the excellent disqualified work from Lawless

Best Production Design
  1. Les Miserables
  2. Anna Karenina
  3. Lincoln
  4.The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  5. Life of Pi
  Alternate: Cloud Atlas
  Wild Card: Argo
  For Your Consideration: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Sound Editing
  1. Zero Dark Thirty
  2. Skyfall
  3. The Dark Knight Rises
  4. The Avengers
  5. Life of Pi
  Alternate: Lincoln
  Wild Card: The Impossible
   For Your Consideration: The Cabin In the Woods

Best Sound Mixing
  1. Les Miserables
  2. Zero Dark Thirty
  3. Skyfall
  4. Life of Pi
  5. The Dark Knight Rises
  Alternate: Lincoln
  Wild Card: The Impossible
   For Your Consideration:  The Grey


Best Visual Effects
  1. Life of Pi
  2. Cloud Atlas
  3. The Avengers
  4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  5. The Dark Knight Rises
  Alternate:  Prometheus
  Wild Card:  Skyfall
   For Your Consideration:  The Cabin In the Woods


Best Animated Short
  1. Paperman
  2. The Eagleman Stag
  3. Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare
  4. Adam and Dog
  5. Combustible
  Alternate: Dripped
  Wild Card: Tram
 

Best Documentary Short
  1. The Education of Mohammed Hussein
  2. Open Heart
  3. Mondays at Racine
  4. Innocente
  5. Kings Point
   Alternate: Redemption
  Wild Card: Paraiso

Best Live Action Short
  1. Death of a Shadow
  2. Curfew
  3. When You Find Me
  4. 9 Meter
  5. When You Find Me
  Alternate: Asad
  Wild Card: The Night Shift Belongs To The Stars
 
     And in a few hours it will all be over.  I ran short of time to post the buzz list final tallies, so I'll work them into my analysis after they are announced tomorrow.  I have butterflies...


Related Posts:  coming soon (I ran out of time)

Dec. Oscar Buzz and Predictions - Supporting Performances

Best Supporting Actor

     As always the buzz comes first with former rankings in parenthesis.  My own little amphibious ideas follow.

  1.(2) Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
  2. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
  3.(5) Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
  4.(1) Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
  5.(6) Alan Arkin - Argo

  6.(8) Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike
  7.(7) Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild
  8. Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
  9. Javier Bardem - Skyfall
  10. John Goodman - Argo
  Leaving the rankings:  Russell Crowe - Les Miserables, William H. Macy - The Sessions, Bryan Cranston - Argo, David Straitharn - Lincoln
   Believe it or not, there are actually like eleven guys who have some legitimate buzz going right now and I can see multiple scenarios possibly playing out in this category.  The Academy usually only goes three for five with the buzz in at least one acting category.  I may well be indulging in some wishful thinking here, but next time I write about this category will be in my final predictions on January 9th, so indulge my imagination one last time...
  1. Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained...This guy is one of the most overdue actors out there and this could well be the film's only win.  Of course, I haven't seen it yet, but...
  2. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln...Mr. Jones is supposedly amazing in this film and I almost hope that he's the most deserving nominee but DiCaprio wins anyway.  I don't have anything against Mr. Jones but it would set the Karmic scales right after his performance in The Fugitive beat Leo's far more deserving turn in What's Eating Gilbert Grape back when the latter actor was just a kid.
  3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master...Although this film's buzz has been steadily waning overall, Hoffman has sneaked onto multiple nominee lists that mostly ignored The Master as a whole, and for the moment, I'm expecting that to happen with Oscar.  He's also completely deserving in this role.
  4. Chritoph Waltz - Django Unchained...Of the three possible "come out of nowhere" nominations in this category, he seems the most likely candidate to knock one of the presumed top five candidates out of the race.  His campaign has probably demonstrated more forward momentum in the last couple of weeks than anyone.  I think he's in.
  5. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook...Oscar loves a come back, I love a comeback, we all love a comeback, but this is far from a sure thing.

  6. Alan Arkin - Argo...For now, I'm going with Waltz and DeNiro, working on the assumption that Goodman and Arkin will split the Argo vote, but I could EASILY be wrong.  The fact that a true contender for the Best Picture win almost always has a nod in one of the acting categories makes me even less certain.
  7. Javier Bardem - Skyfall...I'm certainly taking this possibility more seriously than I did a couple of weeks ago, but I'm still not really expecting it.
  8. John Goodman - Argo...IF the Academy rejects Django (and they could), it could result in double nominations for Argo in this category instead.  If you stack up all the actors overdue for their first nomination, Goodman would be very near the top (which will be unfortunate for all those underneath).
  9. Eddie Redmayne - Les Miserables...Russell Crowe was considered a major contender before this film debuted, but young Mr. Redmayne has stolen all the buzz overnight.
  10.(tie) Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild...Mr. Henry has remained just outside of this race's top five contenders almost all year long, but those are rarely the candidates who receive a surprise nomination, unless other presumed contenders fail to meet expectations.  As much as I think his performance is one of the year's most deserving, a nod seems unlikely.
              Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike...Even though he has had a great year, I think that Mr. McConaughey will score his first nod next year when he'll be appearing in Mud (which already has great festival reviews), Dallas Buyer's Club, and The Wolf of Wall Street.  Besides, his work in Killer Joe was actually his best THIS year.


Best Supporting Actress
     The top three in this category seem pretty secure.  Beyond that...?
  1.(2) Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
  2.(3) Sally Field - Lincoln
  3.(4) Helen Hunt - The Sessions
  4.(1) Amy Adams - The Master
  5.(10) Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

  6. Ann Dowd - Compliance
  7.(8) Samantha Barks - Les Miserables
  8. Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
  9. Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
  10. Judi Dench - Skyfall
  Leaving the Rankings:  Kerry Washington (although she was eleventh) - Django Unchained, Olivia Williams - Hyde Park On Hudson, Vanessa Redgrave - Song For Marion, Judi Dench - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
     These definitely seem like the ten strongest contenders, but I'll shuffle things a bit....
  1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables...If I had to pick the eventual winners of five categories right now, before nominations, this would be one of those five.
  2. Sally Field - Lincoln...If anyone can beat Ms. Hathaway, it would be Ms. Field.  However, I think this beloved vet will have to finally learn what it feels like to be nominated and NOT win.
  3. Helen Hunt - The Sessions...It hadn't really occurred to me until just now, but this will also be Ms. Hunt's first time with the same experience.
  4. Ann Dowd - Compliance...This actress's sudden buzz has been deafening and the accolades just keep on coming.  I now find it highly likely that she will sneak in ala Jackie Weaver in Animal Kingdom.
  5. Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel...Everybody loves Maggie right now (deservedly so) and this film's success with SAG indicates widespread approval in the industry.  Even though it means Hathaway would be the only nominee under forty, I'm still predicting this for now.

  6. Amy Adams - The Master...Her buzz has faded a lot by comparison with the other presumed front runners and the film hasn't even received as much love from the critic's circles as expected, much of its thunder stolen by Zero Dark Thirty.  For now, I'm going to predict that Dowd and Smith steal Ms. Adams'.
  7. Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy...Even though Ms. Kidman's buzz has surged in recent weeks, I think Ms. Dowd is this year's last minute success story in Supporting Actress.
  8. Judi Dench - Skyfall...As with Bardem, I am forced to recognize this possibility as a growing likelihood, but not one I'm quite ready to embrace.
  9. Samantha Barks - Les Miserables...I know, I've been predicting she actually gets nominated for months, but it now seems like Ms. Dowd is going to have the "plucked from obscurity" vote.
  10. Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook...Of the four possible acting nods for this picture, this seems like the least likely, although I'm so glad to see the amazing Ms. Weaver getting more exposure.  She should have won this category for Animal Kingdom.

     We are down to the wire with these updates, but I'm going to push to get the last six categories out by New Year's Eve.
                                                                                  Froggy

Related Articles:  Nov/Dec Oscar Buzz and Predictions: It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing and Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Hairstyling and Make-up & Costume), Pretty Picture Techs (Production Design and Cinematography), Finishing Touch Techs, Toons of Any Length (Animated Short and Animated Feature), Docs of Any Length (Documentary Feature and Documentary Short), Screenplays (Adapted and Original), Can You "Master" Your Nature, Where Did the Magic Spider Go? (Magic Mike review), Best That The Summer Wields? (Beasts of the Souther Wild review), 23? You Don't Play Like a Sequel Over 2. (Skyfall review), I Think You "Argo"ing to Love It!, Acting Master Classes in Private "Sessions", The Best Huntsman's Shadow (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel review)

  

Cloudy Connections

     Cloud Atlas, like the forthcoming Life of Pi, was supposed to be one of those novels it is impossible to adapt for the screen.  The scope of the story was too large and intricate to translate.  There is a good argument to be made for this.  The tale is actually six different narratives, set in six different time periods.  Two are in our future, one in the present, and three in our past.  The stories are connected not only by physically shared elements (a journal, a musical composition, even one character) that survive from one era to the next, but by the idea that the same souls are featured in each, just in different reincarnations.  Not just an intricate plot, but one that is bizarre and spiritual.
     Fortunately, the film had no less than three highly creative minds guiding both the script and direction:  the Wachowski siblings (The Matrix Trilogy) and German director Tom Tykwer (Run Lola Run, 3).  I'm sure most of you are familiar with the "sibs" previous efforts, and the inherent pedigree they carry for dealing with futuristic worlds not that different from our own.  If you are unfamiliar with Tykwer's work, Run Lola Run delves into slight fantasy (and is must viewing, a really excellent film) and 3 investigates the twists and turns of complicated relationships (you can click the link in Related Articles for my review).
     However well their backgrounds may have suited them to the project, our directors had some tough choices to make and they didn't go for the easiest options.  They chose to present the stories in a constantly interweaving manner.  The audience never knows from cut to cut where or when the next scene will take them.  It DOES make the plot a little harder to follow, but it thematically underlines the ideas of connectivity and continuity.  These themes are further stressed through the choice of having the same small group of actors playing roles in each (or most) of the vignettes, each player apparently representing the same soul throughout different incarnations.  Like I said, there were no easy ways out chosen in this movie's production.
     The actors rose admirably to their difficult tasks, keeping the flavor of each soul the same, yet each lifetime having its own distinct character as well.  Tom Hanks is the best he's been in years.  Halle Berry shows previously untapped range.  Jim Broadbent is comically charming.  I am unfamiliar with actress Doona Bae, but she is absolutely captivating as Sonmi-451.  Hugo Weaving is delightfully wicked, playing the darkest soul in the bunch.  Jim Sturgess, Ben Whishaw, Keith David, and James D'Arcy, Susan Sarandan, and Hugh Grant are all also tremendously impressive.  This film probably won't get a SAG ensemble nod, but it is hard to imagine they won't make my top five of the year.
     The production values are absolutely first rate.  The visual effects are seamless, the production design and camera work both breathtakingly gorgeous.  Music is incorporated brilliantly throughout.  The editing on this piece had to have been a nightmare, but it creates a rhythm utterly unique to the picture.  Best in show (craft wise) has to go to the make-up department who had to transform actors to different ages, ethnicities, and even genders.
     The central theme of Cloud Atlas is the interconnected nature of all life and existence (oh, just that...), but it touches on so many universal themes.  One is the idea that a person is really who they are on the inside, as we see the same souls change drastically in superficial, visible means over the course of different incarnations.   Hanks' character(s?) demonstrate a strong thread of growth and redemption.  Liberty, individuality, freedom, and basic human rights tie the earliest and furthest flung plot lines together.  I could go on, and I'm sure that there were more ideas woven into this tapestry than I was able to glean in a single viewing.
     Which is my one (reserved) complaint about the film.  In an age when so many novels are split into two (or even three) parts when brought to the screen, why not use that treatment here?  It WAS a little too much story for one film, even at two hours and forty five minutes.  I was on sensory overload and still felt like there was so much MORE beyond what I caught.  Maybe repeat viewings will make it more clear.  Maybe that yearning for the more I can't know is part of how its supposed to make me feel.  This film has been very divisive with critics, but I found it really amazing.  That being said, I still feel like I need to see it again, maybe twice to gauge it in a completely accurate manner.
     At present, I'm going to say:  4 1/2 of 5 stars.

Related articles:  Sept. Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Techs: Part 1, Part 2, Screenplays, Supporting Performers, Directors, and Picture, 3 Future Adventures of Tin Tin (review of 3)

I Think You "Argo"ing to Love It!

     So, if you read The Movie Frog on any kind of regular basis, you know that my taste in films tends to run toward the bizarre and experimental.  The more a film seems tailor made for popular consumption and wide spread audience appeal, the less likely I am to find it all that memorable (unless it's a picture about my favorite comic book character of all time, in which case all bets are off).  So, even though I really enjoyed The Town, I wasn't sure that I was going to be nearly as fond of Argo as the majority of critics were on the film festival circuit.  I am pleased to report that, despite myself, I absolutely loved the film, even though it is perfectly suited for mass appreciation, and is definitely a film that you can share with friends who are in no way film snobs.
     Most REALLY good to great movies have one or two elements that rise above all the other wonderful things about them to really knock your socks off and bring the victory home.  In The Dark Knight rises it is the marriage of spectacle and character development.  In Beasts of the Southern Wild it is the subtext and the performance of the young lead.  In The Master it is the cinematography and the three lead performances.  Argo's strongest suit?  Pacing.
     Argo is a complex two hour film that seems to go by like an hour and ten minutes of easily digestible popcorn entertainment.  You can't do that without the careful collaboration of an extremely skilled directorial/editorial team.  Ben Affleck began proving his chops as a director straight out of the gate and has improved with each successive outing.  In this, only his third film, he really delivers like a master at the top of his game.  All the elements come together beautifully, every scene and every shot are given their just due and nothing more, and every member of the ensemble cast fits perfectly with every other (more on that in a bit).  Of course, he could not have delivered such a well timed product without the help of a terrific editor.  William Goldenberg, twice nominated by the Academy for Seabisquit and The Insider, fits that bill perfectly, exceeding the expectations of his professional pedigree.  Both men should be strong contenders for not only Oscar nominations, but wins, unless Goldberg cancels himself out with the double duty he pulled editing both this film and the upcoming Zero Dark Thirty.
     The second most amazing thing about Argo is the tonal shift halfway through the film.  The first half of the movie is very witty, downright comic at times.  Midway through it really kicks into suspense thriller mode without seeming at all like two different films.  The transition is so smooth that you don't even realize it has happened until you've been sitting on the edge of your seat for fifteen minutes.  This is to the credit of Mr. Affleck once again, and first time feature screen writer Chris Terrio.  They accomplish this with subtlety and realism in both phases.  The laughs are never farcical or detracting in any way from the seriousness of the situation.  Likewise, the second part is a thriller in the tradition of Hitchcock: quiet tension, ulitimately far more stressful to watch than any car chase.  Stressful in a good and entertaining way.
     The third best aspect of this movie is the fantastic ensemble cast.  It is Ben Affleck's best acting performance yet.  When the company of the film is discussed John Goodman, Bryan Cranston, and Alan Arkin are always cited (as they should be, all tremendous), but the accolades are deserved by a much larger group than just the four principles.  There are no less than a dozen familiar faces (although some like Victor Garber and Zeljko Ivanek are much more acclaimed for their work on television than in film) that bring so much more to the small roles they play than would normally accompany an eighth or ninth billing.
     It's very difficult, in fact, to find much fault with Argo, at least upon my initial viewing.  Aspects such as the production design may find more trouble getting awards attention due to it being a period piece from so relatively recent in history, but it FELT like the late seventies, every bit of it.  At the end of the movie they show side by side pictures of the actors and the real life individuals that they portray.  It was a true testament not only to the work done by the casting department, but also the attention paid to detail in the costuming, make-up, and hair design.
     When I last updated my Best Picture and Best Director predictions, I had Argo at number one in both categories.  Now that I've seen the film, I have no reason to doubt those instincts.  It is both an extraordinarily good picture and an easily accessible one.  Ben Affleck's comeback story is pretty irresistible, even to a jaded Movie Frog such as myself.  This is shaping up to be a great year for cinema, in a wide variety of types of film.  5 out of 5*

Related posts:  Best the the Summer Wields? (review of Beasts of the Southern Wild), Sept. Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Techs: Part 1, Part 2, Screenplays, Supporting Performers, Best Actor and Actress, Directors, and Picture. Can You Master Your Nature? (Master review), The Dark Knight Transcends