Ju...ly Oscar Buzz and Predictions - Actor and Actress

     In the interest of trying to finish these close to June, let's hop right to it. As always the buzz is more immediately obvious and I make you wait just a moment longer...

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
  2. Bruce Dern - Nebraska
  3. Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyer's Club
  4. Robert Redford - All is Lost
  5. Michael B Jordan - Fruitvale Station

  6. Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
  7. Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
  8. Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher
  9. Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
  10. Michael Fassbender - The Counselor

     The buzz seems reasonable here, and I see no reason not to believe that most or all of the gentlemen listed above will deliver noteworthy turns.  I do think that Bruce Dern is probably going to wind up being campaigned in Supporting.  Other than that, my predictions differ mostly in that I tend to give the edge to performances that have already screened and proven to live up to the hype.  With that in mind...

  1. Robert Redford - All is Lost (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...I am a LITTLE self-satisfied that I predicted this a few months back in my first guesses BEFORE anyone saw the film at Cannes.  Since then everyone else has jumped on board with me.  Hopefully we won't capsize.
  2. Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis (never nominated)...Word out of Cannes was very strong for this latest Coen production and its star.  Of course, we won't really know until the film debuts to a wider audience, but for now it seems like a strong bet.
  3. Michael B Jordan - Fruitvale Station (never nominated)...This film (and its young star) received raves out of both Sundance and Cannes earlier this year.  The obstacle here will be getting enough people to see the film but modest box office didn't stop Quvenzhane Wallis last year, so it might not matter.  Oh, yeah, the Weinstein Company is handling distribution.
  4. Matthew McConaughey - Mud (never nominated)..It would seem to be Mr. McConaughey's year.  I know everyone else is predicting that he gets in for Dallas Buyer's Club, but we don't REALLY know how that will turn out just yet.  We DO know that Mud was his greatest performance to date, so until that is no longer true, I'm sticking to my guns.
  5. Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher (never nominated)...I love it when famous funny men prove they have dramatic range as well, and so does the Academy.  Bennett Miller directed Jonah Hill to a nod in a role that possessed far less furniture chewing potential, so...

  6. Michael Fassbender - The Counselor (never nominated)...This film is a potentially fantastic question mark at the moment, but after being left out at the 84th Oscars because his equipment was flopping  all around the screen while he out acted all of that year's eventual nominees, the Academy should be looking for an excuse to recognize Fassbender's talent.
  7. Ethan Hawke - Before Midnight (0 wins out of 1 nomination in acting categories)...Something from the first half of the year almost always emerges as a true awards player and the third film in the Before series would seem to be the early bird most likely to succeed at this point in the game.  A previous nod for Training Day demonstrates that the Academy respects Mr. Hawke. If the film scores in Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Actress, he could be swept along with the current.
  8. Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave (never nominated)...Steve McQueen is a strikingly gifted director whose films thus far have featured actors in roles that took them down to very deep and difficult places.  If the never previously nominated actor rises to the challenge, he could be a real threat.  However, he'll have to avoid being upstaged by both McQueen muse Fassbender and Brad Pitt.
  9. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street (0 wins out of 3 nominations)...I LOVE Leo, and he is undeniably one of the most overdue actors out there but I'm SOOOO tired of predicting his nomination every year and being wrong.  See, this is the thing.  Leo CAN get another nomination, and a win, and he will in time. But Leo has to be twice as good to get praise from the Academy as anyone else because he once acted like a brat when he didn't get a nod for playing a role in which he was pleasant, but vastly under challenged. Of course, this was back when he was barely out of his teens.  Now that he's nearing forty, I'd like to ask the Academy: Who's REALLY being the brat?
  10. Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips...Once the AMPAS's favorite son and poster boy, it has been quite some time since Mr. Hanks REALLY threw his hat in the ring.  A lot of pundits believe that this will be the year that he receives a long awaited sixth nomination.  I think he's gearing up, but I could be wrong.  If it DOES happen this year, I prefer to believe it will be for this film, rather that the as yet sap-unseen Saving Mr. Banks.
 
  I also wouldn't be shocked by:  Casey Affleck - Ain't Them Bodies Saints (0/1), Christian Bale - American Hustle (1/1), Forest Whitaker - The Butler or Untitled Lee Daniels Project (1/1), Benedict Cumberbatch - The Fifth Estate (nn), Michael Shannon - The Iceman (nn), Josh Brolin - Labour Day (0/1), Mark Wahlberg - Lone Survivor (0/1), Idris Elba - Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom, Christian Bale - Out of the Furnace (1/1), Hugh Jackman - Prisoners (0/1), Colin Firth - The Railway Man (0/2), Daniel Bruhl - Rush (nn), Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks (2/5), Ben Stiller - The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (nn), Christoph Waltz - The Zero Theorem (2/2)



Best Actress
  1. Meryl Streep - August: Osage County
  2. Nicole Kidman - Grace of Monaco
  3. Naomi Watts - Diana
  4. Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks
  5. Kate Winslet - Labor Day

  6. Sandra Bullock - Gravity
  7. Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant
  8. Julie Delpy - Before Midnight
  9. Berenice Bejo - The Past
  10. Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine

     Many a year reaches the half-way point and the biggest challenge in predicting this category is coming up with ten ladies to single out as true real contenders.  Traditionally, more films are led by men with more women playing supporting roles.  This year, however, we actually have a pretty wide field of actresses to choose from.  I could see ANY of the women above winding up with a nomination, but they're not exactly my top ten...

  1. Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine (1 win out of 5 nominations)...No one can claim that the Academy has failed to honor Cate Blanchett, but no one can claim that she hasn't earned and deserved every bit of it.  She looks amazing in the trailer, like her performance IS the film. I could say we all know what Allen is capable of doing when working with a female talent of this caliber if Blanchett wasn't practically in a caliber all her own.
  2. Julie Delpy - Before Midnight (never nominated in acting categories)...I've gone on record with the fact that I expect this film to be the one big above the line player released in the first half of 2013, and this is probably the second most likely nod for it to snag.  Mrs. Delpy's performance has been universally praised as one of the strongest elements.
  3. Meryl Streep - August: Osage County (3 wins out of 17 nominations)  Whatever the AMPAS thinks of DiCaprio that makes them so hesitant to honor him, the opposite must be true of Meryl Streep.  Like Woody Allen, she almost has to be attached to a BAD film to get left out (or request that no one vote for her).  No reason to believe that this Weinstein backed production will fall into that category as of yet, so here she is.
  4. Judi Dench - Philomena (1 win out of 6 nominations)...Speaking of Harvey and Company, they recently picked up this film for distribution at Cannes.  If the move was made as an 86th Oscar play (and with the Weinsteins, it is likely), Best Actress seems like a reasonable primary target.  While the company already had three strong contenders for nomination (Streep, Kidman & Roberts), a second Oscar for aging British matron Dench seems like their strongest play for a win.
  5. Jessica Chastain - The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (0 wins out of 2 nominations)...Both in terms of Academy appeal and ability to deliver, Ms. Chastain shows signs of becoming the Meryl of a new generation.  She's made a believer out of me, demonstrating more range in two short years than most actresses manage in a whole career.  If I have to lay odds for performances I haven't seen (and, well, I kinda do), she seems like a safer bet than most.

  6. Berenice Bejo - The Past (0 wins out of 1 nomination)...Circumstance may well keep The Past from being submitted to the Foreign Language Film race at all, but there's no way that it will fail to register on 2013's awards radar.  Original Screenplay and Actress seem like the categories in which it could most easily compete with English language productions. DuJardin may have won the statue for The Artist, but the world fell in love with Ms. Bejo.
  7. Sandra Bullock - Gravity (1 win out of 1 nomination)...Ms. Bullock is certainly well loved and likable, and it has made her one of the most successful and bankable romantic comedy stars ever.  Now over forty, she is working very hard to expand her range as an actress before she gets relegated to playing rom-com moms.  Her Oscar for the Blind Side came not so much because her performance blew everyone else out of the water (the script was far too saccharine and formulaic to allow for that),  but because it broadened the range of what we had seen her do significantly.  She beat out several younger, more "prestige" actresses for Gravity, and I'm sure that director Cuaron did not take the decision of casting this (practically) one woman show lightly.  The only thing standing in her way is the little problem of the film's subject matter.  The last Best Actress nominee in space was Sigourney Weaver for Aliens waaaay back in 1986.
  8. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County (1 win out of 3 nominations)...It's not that I don't think Ms. Roberts stands a very good chance of being fantastic in this film.  I have reservations about her chances of recognition in this category because of splits.  She and Streep will split the votes of those who wish to honor the film in this category. She, Streep, Dench, and Kidman will split the campaigning efforts of the Weinstein Company.  Of course, it she actually shows us something new and surprising, none of that will matter.
  9. Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks (1 win out 4 nominations)...I recently saw Beautiful Creatures and was reminded of just how great an actress Emma Thompson can be when she's given something to do besides be primly British.  I want to be wrong about how many empty calories this film will contain, but if wishes were fishes we'd all have a feast.
     I'm so lame. I'm declaring number ten a tie.  Again...
  10. Nicole Kidman - Grace of Monaco (1 win out of 3 nominations)
     and
  11. Naomi Watts - Diana (0 wins out of 2 nominations)
     It seems appropriate to pair these ladies, and not just because they are "besties".  They are also both appearing in self-titled biopics about iconic women.  This particular sub-genre of cinema has a bad reputation for good reason.  Quite often such movies exist strictly to serve as Oscar Bait vehicles which exploit the shortage of leading roles available to women to attract stars regardless of how little effort has been put into the script.  Yes, you occasionally get The Queen, but more often you get The Iron Lady.  I would love for one of these two pictures to buck the trend, and both ladies may receive nominations even if my hunch is right on the money.  For now, I'm going to choose to believe that this year's bumper crop of notable women characters is evidence that the day of My Week With Marilyn has passed...and keep my finger's crossed.

  What bumper crop, you say?  Behold this feast...Rooney Mara - Ain't Them Bodies Saints (0/1), Chloe Grace Moretz - Carrie (never nominated), Cate Blanchett - Carol (1/5), Annette Benning - The Face of Love, Greta Gerwig - Frances Ha (never nominated), Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant (1/1), Felicity Jones - The Invisible Woman, Kate Winslet - Labor Day (1/6), Jennifer Lawrence - Serena (1/2), Shailene Woodley - The Spectacular Now (never nominated), Audrey Tatou - Therese Desqueyroux


     With that, we are left with Picture and Director.  I shall try to return posthaste.


  Related articles:  What "Cannes" We Tell So Far?, June Oscar Buzz and Predictions - The Aural Techs, The Visual Techs, The Genre Categories, The Screenplays, Supporting Players,  Innkeepers of Blood and Shame (Shame review), Water and Earth Make "Mud", 

Water and Earth Make "Mud"

      I still haven't seen writer/director Jeff Nichols debut feature Shotgun Stories, but trust me that it will feature in a future Rewind series.  It's already on the list.  I fell a little bit in love with his work back in 2011 with his sophomore effort Take Shelter as anyone who read the Best of 2011 series should easily be able to attest.  Among other honors, that film's star Michael Shannon received Best Actor of the Year.

     Now it's 2013, and Nichols is back for a third time with a film that is being hailed as the vessel of Matthew McConaughey's best performance EVER.  My anticipation was so high that I was a little scared to go and see the picture.  I was going to be SOOO hurt if it failed to live up to my expectations, much less my hopes.  After all, I never see a five star film THIS early in the year.  I shouldn't have worried.  Nichols has pulled it off once again.  His film making retains all the raw energy of his previous effort while becoming slightly more polished with the wisdom of experience (and quite probably more secure backing).

     The story is a total departure from Take Shelter.  Whereas that film was surreal and trippy, Mud (like its title character and his namesake) is rooted firmly in the dirt of consensual reality.  Every character is a study in desperation, from the father whose world is crumbling around him (Ray McKinnon) to the mother who is removing the bricks that support it because they form her prison (Sarah Paulson).  We see it in the eyes of Ellis's best friend (Jacob Lofland) and mirrored in those of his sex crazed uncle (Michael Shannon).  We see it in every reaction of the man who was Mud's surrogate father (Sam Shepard). Reese Witherspoon seems to embody desperation in this film the way that Carey Mulligan became sadness in Shame.  I hope that this leads to some better casting opportunities for this talented actress.  This entire ensemble is amazing, utterly believable, never missing a note.

     The film's true lead is child actor Tye Sheridan, and he gives what will surely be remembered at the very least as one of the year's best juvenile performances.  As Ellis, he is caught between all possible worst case scenarios.  As he watches his family disintegrate, he wishes desperately to find some evidence in the world of the power of love.  Perhaps the greatest compliment that can be given to Mr. Sheridan is that he brought limited experience in craft or life to bear upon a difficult role and held his own squarely opposite a seasoned actor finally coming into his own in a way he never quite has before.

     Which brings us squarely to Matthew McConaughey and the role of Mud.  Mud, as a character, is almost a primal creature, far more tied to the spiritual world AND the natural world than the world of civilization.  He sees things with both a child's optimism and an adult's pragmatism, and it is a sad wisdom that he brings to bear.  McConaughey brings all of that to the table, and more.  Add in an intelligence that shines through a film of ignorance in a way that proves itself to be well beyond mere cunning.  Add in natural sex appeal that only enhances the feral qualities.  Talk about an actor FINALLY beginning to live up to the iceberg of potential that the charisma and charming drawl were only the tip of.

     In fact, in Mr. Nichols and Mr. McConaughey's hands the character of Mud becomes archetypal, a symbol for the land that spawned him and the way of life that is dying upon it.  Mud is what you get where the water meets the land, but Mud finds that those he gave his love to those who have used it unwisely and created a world in which he no longer has any place.  I don't know if Dallas Buyer's Club will make everyone forget about this performance by Awards time or not, but I feel certain it will be one of my top ten lead acting turns this year.  

     IF Mr. McConaughey becomes a serious contender for his work here, I could see Screenplay or Picture nods become possibilities as well although the proposition seems more worthy than likely at this point in the game. If the film WERE to break into technical recognition, my bet would easily be upon the camera work of cinematographer Adam Stone whose work here is entirely different from what he did in Take Shelter. In that film the world seemed utterly bleak, desolate and unreal.  The landscape of Mud is almost too real, creating an environment that is utterly alive, active, and often dangerous.  It must be said, however, that production values were noticeably high across the board.  This is only the second film 2013 film that I've reviewed, but it ABSOLUTELY deserves...5 of 5 stars.

  Related articles:  Senna, Take 13 (Take Shelter review), Innkeepers of Blood and Shame (Shame review),
Rewind Series - 2010 Edition, Best of 2011 - The Techs, The Performances: Part 1, The Performances: Part 2,  Writers and Directors, Best Picture (concluded)

Want to know more about the members of the cast? Click to view their IMDB profile:
Matthew McConaughey, Tye Sheridan, Jacob Lofland, Reese Witherspoon, Sarah Paulson, Ray McKinnon, Sam Shepard, Michael Shannon, Joe Don Baker.

2013 Awards Preview - Postscript: Predictions

     Of course, nobody knows anything yet, but I can't resist doing this just for fun.  I haven't even started tracking 86th Oscar Buzz in any significant way yet.  This is just going with my gut. That being said, five of the eventual Best Picture nominees from last year were in my preview series predictions top ten and I made those a couple of weeks earlier.  Three of the other four were in my alternates.  Amour is the only possibility that seemed to really escape me, but how often does a non-English language film actually crack the Best Picture category?  Let's see if I can do any better this year.  Bear in mind, the last couple of alternate slots in any category are usually going to be things I would LIKE to see happen.  Some are a little wild...

  Best Picture
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Nebraska
5. Fruitvale Station
6. The Monuments Men
7. Elysium
8. Before Midnight (ala Toy Story 3 and the expanded field effect)
9. The Butler
10. The Counselor

11. American Hustle
12. The Zero Theorem
13. The Immigrant
14. The Great Gatsby
15. Labor Day
16. The Rover
17. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
18. To The Wonder
19. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
20. The East
  But don't rule out: All Is Lost, August: Osage County, Captain Phillips, The Fifth Estate, Foxcatcher, Grace of Monico, Gravity, Her, Kill Your Darlings, Midnight's Children, Mud, Only God Forgives, The Place Beyond the Pines, Serena, Snowpiercer, Trance, World War Z

  Best Director
1. Steve McQueen - Twelve Years a Slave
2. Martin Scorcese - The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Alexander Payne - Nebraska
4. Ryan Coogler - Fruitvale Station'
5. The Coen Brothers - Inside Llewyn Davis

6. Neil Blomkamp - Elysium
7. Lee Daniels - The Butler
8. George Clooney - The Monuments Men
9. Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
10. Terence Malick - To The Wonder
  Other possibilities: David O Russell - American Hustle, Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips, Ridley Scott - The Couselor, Bill Condon - The Fifth Estate, Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher, Baz Luhrman - The Great Gatsby, James Grey - The Immigrant, Jason Reitman - Labor Day, Deepa Mehta - Midnight's Children, Jeff Nichols - Mud, Nicholas Winding Refn - Only God Forgives, David Michod - The Rover, Susanne Bier - Serena, Jean-Pierre Juenet - The Young and Prodigious Spivet, Terry Gillem - The Zero Theorem

  Best Actor
1. Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station
2. Michael Fassbender - The Counselor
3. Chiawatel Ejiofor - Twelve Years a Slave
4. Robert Redford - All Is Lost
5. Bruce Dern - Nebraska

6. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Forest Whitaker - The Butler
9. Matthew MacConaughey - Mud
10. Christoph Waltz - The Zero Theorem
  Or...Casey Affleck - Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Bradley Cooper - American Hustle, Dennis Quaid - At Any Price, Ethan Hawke - Before Midnight, Toby Jones - Berberian Sound Studio, Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips, Matt Damon - Elysium, Bradley Cooper - The Fifth Estate, Mads Mickelson - The Hunt, Jeremy Renner - The Immigrant, Daniel Radcliffe - Kill Your Darlings, Ryan Gosling - Only God Forgives, Leonardo DiCaprio - The Great Gatsby, Joaquin Phoenix - Her, Idris Elba - Mandela: TheLong Walk To Freedom, Ryan Gosling - The Place Beyond the Pines, Christian Bale - Out of the Furnace, Colin Firth - The Railway Man, Guy Pearce - The Rover, Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks

  Best Actress
1. Nicole Kidman - Grace of Monaco
2. Jessica Chastain - The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers
3. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler
4. Carey Mulligan - The Great Gatsby
5. Rooney Mara - Ain't Them Bodies Saints

6. Naomie Watts - Diana
7. Sandra Bullock - Gravity
8. Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant
9. Julie Delpy - Before Midnight
10. Susan Sarandan - The Company You Keep
     I also thought about: Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle, Meryl Streep - August: Osage County, Rooney Mara - Her, Saoirse Ronan - How I Live Now, Mia Wasikowska - Madame Bovary, Naomi Harris - Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom, Shaillene Woodley - The Spectacular Now

  Best Supporting Actor
1. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis
2. Robert DeNiro - American Hustle
3. Brad Pitt - The Counselor
4. Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher
5. Ewan McGregor - August: Osage County

6. Michael Fassbender - Twelve Years a Slave
7. Robin Williams - The Butler
8. Matthew MacConaughey - The Wolf of Wall Street
9. Will Forte - Nebraska
10. Ezra Miller - Madame Bovary
  Also: Ben Foster - Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Jeremy Renner - American Hustle, Chris Cooper - August: Osage County, Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County, John Cusack - The Butler, Michael Fassbender - Frank, Tim Roth - Grace of Monaco, Tobey McGuire - The Great Gatsby, Joachin Phoenix - The Immigrant, Justin Timberlake - Inside Llewyn Davis, Matt Damon - The Monuments Men, Jean Dujardin - The Monuments Men, John Goodman - The Monuments Men, Casey Affleck - Out of the Furnace, Bradley Cooper - The Place Beyond the Pines, Scoot McNairy - The Rover, Robert Pattinson - The Rover, Paul Giamatti - Twelve Years a Slave, Brad Pitt - Twelve Years a Slave, Ben Whishaw - The Zero Theorem

  Best Supporting Actress
1. Jane Fonda - The Butler
2. Viola Davis - The Disappearence of Eleanor Rigby: Hers or His, not sure which
3. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
4. Cate Blanchett - The Monuments Men
5. Alfre Woodard - Twelve Years a Slave

6. Amy Adams - American Hustle
7. Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station
8. Catherine Keener - Captain Phillips
9. Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Ellen Page - The East
  And then you have: Juliette Lewis - August: Osage County, Melissa Leo - The Butler, Parker Posey - Grace of Monaco, Samantha Morten - Her, Michelle Pfeiffer - Malavita, Kristen Scott Thomas - Only God Forgives, Zoe Saldana - Out of the Furnace, Quvenzhane Wallis - Twelve Years a Slave, Judy Davis - The Young and Prodigious Spivet

  Adapted Screenplay
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Before Midnight
3. The Butler
4. The Monuments Men
5. Much Ado About Nothing

6. The Great Gatsby
7. Prince Avalanche
8. Midnight's Children
9. Snowpiercer
10. Man of Steel
  In the running: The Fifth Estate, The Spectacular Now, Two Faces of January

  Original Screenplay
1. Inside Llewyn Davis
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Fruitvale Station
4. Nebraska
5. The Immigrant

6. The Counselor
7. Elysium
8. American Hustler
9. The Zero Theorem
10. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
  Also keeping an eye on: All Is Lost, Captain Phillips, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His and/or Hers, The East, Foxcatcher, Frank, Grace of Monaco, Kill Your Darlings, Mud, Only God Forgives, Her, The Place Beyond the Pines, The Rover, Trance, The Young and Prodigious Spivet, World War Z

  Best Cinematography
1. The Monuments Men
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Ain't Them Bodies Saints
4. Nebraska
5. To The Wonder

6. Elysium
7. The Zero Theorem
8. The Wolf of Wall Street
9. All Is Lost
10. Only God Forgives

  Best Editing
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Twelve Years a Slave
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Elysium
5. The Monuments Men

6. Fruitvale Station
7. The Butler
8. Man of Steel
9. The East
10. The Counselor

  Best Production Design
1. The Monuments Men
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Elysium
4. Twelve Years a Slave
5. The Butler

6. Oblivion
7. Grace of Monaco
8. Kill Your Darlings
9. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
10. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

  Best Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. Grace of Monaco
3. The Butler
4. Oz the Great and Powerful
5. The Immigrant

6. Diana
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Twelve Years a Slave
9. The Monuments Men
10. The Rover

  Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
1. The Butler
2. Oz the Great and Powerful
3. World War Z

4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Grace of Monaco
6. Only God Forgives

  Best Original Score
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Man of Steel
3. The Monuments Men
4. World War Z
5. Oldboy

6. Oz the Great and Powerful
7. Snowpiercer
8. The Young and Prodigious Spivet
9. Elysium
10. The Zero Theorem

  Best Original Song
1. Was there an Original Song in Sapphires?
2. Planes
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Oz the Great and Powerful
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

  Best Sound Editing
1. Elysium
2. Man of Steel
3. The Monuments Men
4. All is Lost
5. Only God Forgives

6. World War Z
7. Oz the Great and Powerful
8. Snowpiercer
9. Twelve Years a Slave
10. Captain Phillips

  Best Sound Mixing
1. The Monuments Men
2. Man of Steel
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Elysium
5. World War Z

6. Only God Forgives
7. All is Lost
8. Twelve Years a Slave
9. The Wolf of Wall Street
10. Captain Phillips

  Best Visual Effects
1. Elysium
2. Man of Steel
3. World War Z
4. Snowpiercer
5. The Europa Report

6. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
7. Gravity
8. The Great Gatsby
9. All is Lost
10. Oblivion

  Best Documentary Feature
1. Stories We Tell
2. The Act of Killing
3. Blood Brother
4. We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks
5. Room 237

  Best Foreign Language Film
1. Child's Pose
2. The Hunt
3. Gloria
4. The Past
5. Le Grande Bellazza

6. Closed Curtain
7. Venus in Fur
8. Goodbye to Language
9. Attilla Marcel
10. Mood Indigo

  Best Animated Feature
1. Frozen
2. Planes
3. The Wind Rises
4. Monsters University
5. Hell and Back

6. Epic
7. Ernest and Celestine
8. Leo the Lion
9. Despicable Me Too
10. The Croods

     Related Articles:  Upcoming 2013 Award Season Preview: Part One: Pulpy Players, Part Two: Specialties That Might Spellbind, Part Three: Little Pics That Might Could, Part Four: The Usual Suspects, Part 5 - Because I Said So, 2012 Preview Postscript - Predictions

The Buzz-o-meter & the Final Word!

     For those of you who have never read an explanation before of my methods for accessing buzz, here's a brief rundown.  All year long, I do extensive research and read as much of what critics, other bloggers, the general public, and the industry have to say about the year's films in general and said film's chances for year end awards glory in specific.  I give points based on a scale that I adjust a little each time around.  Because buzz fades over time, several times a year I cut each film's tallies in each category in half, making everything that follows worth twice as much as what came before.  This year I found my buzz rankings to transition a little too slowly, so I will probably cut the buzz in half a little more frequently next year.  This article concerns itself with the final buzz rankings, which are not my final predictions, but which certainly informed them.  It also concerns itself with how I did in my predictions, and a few final thoughts on this year's awards season.  Let's get started...

  Best Picture
1. Argo  41% (WINNER)
2. Lincoln 24%
3. Silver Linings Playbook 8%
4. Zero Dark Thirty 6%
5. Les Miserables 5%
6. Beasts of the Southern Wild 4%
7. Life of Pi 4%
8. Amour 4%
9. Django 3%
    And the buzz did not lie for Picture this year.  Even though it became the first film since Driving Miss Daisy to win the top prize without a corresponding Best Director nod (maybe because of it), Argo reigned triumphant.  I'm glad I listened to the buzz... 1/1 I guessed correctly...

  Best Director
1. Stephen Spielberg - Lincoln   54%
2. Ang Lee - Life of Pi   27% (WINNER)
3. David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook  8%
4. Michael Haneke - Amour 8%
5. Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild 2%
     Of course, Argo winning Best Picture meant that it was going to be a year with a split between that category and this one and in such a year anything can happen and the buzz can be all wrong on a major category or two.  Such was the case as Ang Lee brought home his second Best Director trophy with no corresponding win for Best Picture (the first was for Brokeback Mountain).  Unfortunately, I was NOT brave enough to split with the buzz myself, guessing Spielberg, and I got this one wrong...1/2 I guessed correctly...

  Best Actor
1. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln 68% (WINNER)
2. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables 15%
3. Joachin Phoenix - The Master 8%
4. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook 4%
5. Denzel Washington - Flight 4%
     Sometimes the buzz is so decisive that there is just no arguing the obvious, as was the case here...2/3 I guessed correctly...

  Best Actress
1. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook 47%  (WINNER)
2. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty  24%
3. Emmanuelle Riva - Amour 21%
4. Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild 5%
5. Naomi Watts - The Impossible 2%
     In this category, I thought that the split support between Lawrence and Chastain might allow Riva to swoop in and nab the trophy, but I was wrong.  I should have paid attention to the fact that Lawrence had been widening her lead, but alas...2/4 I guessed correctly...

  Best Supporting Actor
1. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln 42%
2. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook 26%
3. Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained 17% (WINNER)
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master 12%
5. Alan Arkin - Argo 3%
     I suppose that Mr. Waltz's win cannot be said to have come from nowhere, considering his pre-cursor victories, but I really thought that Robert DeNiro would be the upset victory here.  Oh, well... 2 out of 5 I guessed correctly.

  Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables 67% (WINNER)
2. Sally Field - Lincoln 22%
3. Amy Adams - The Master 5%
4. Helen Hunt - The Sessions 4%
5. Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook 1%
     This was maybe the biggest gimme of the night.  Even I (on my worst year in a long time) couldn't get this one wrong... 3 out of 6 I guessed correctly.

  Best Original Screenplay
1. Django Unchained 34% (WINNER)
2. Amour 29%
3. Zero Dark Thirty 27%
4. Moonrise Kingdom 8%
5. Flight 1%
     Yeah, I predicted Amour to upset here, just like in Best Actress and it worked out just the same... 3 out of 7 I guessed correctly.

  Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Lincoln 42%
2. Argo 40% (WINNER)
3. Silver Linings Playbook 11%
4. Life of Pi 4%
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild 2%
     Whew!!!  At least one time that I went against the buzz, it panned out for me.  I correctly guessed that Argo's WGA and Scripter victories indicated enough support to unseat the presumed front runner, not that it held MUCH of a lead anymore... 4 out of 8 I guessed correctly.

  Best Animated Feature
1. Wreck-It Ralph 40%
2. Brave 27% (WINNER)
3. Frankenweenie 24%
4. Paranorman 8%
5. The Pirates! Band of Misfits 1%
     So far, I haven't really taken much umbrage with who won on Oscar night, whether I predicted their victory or not.  That ends here.  I gave the Academy too much credit, figuring that the Pixar brand alone would not enable Brave to defeat the far superior Wreck-It Ralph (to say nothing of the just as excellent Frankenweenie).  Guess I was wrong...4 out of 9 guessed correctly.

  Best Documentary Feature
1. Searching For Sugarman 54% (WINNER)
2. The Gatekeepers 17%
3. How To Survive a Plague 14%
4. The Invisible War 9%
5. 5 Broken Cameras 6%
     Fortunately, I went with Searching For Sugarman's significant lead in buzz here, rather than counting on the surprising history of upsets in this category... 5 out of 10 guessed correctly.

  Best Foreign Language Film
1. Amour - Austria 69% (WINNER)
2. A Royal Affair - Denmark 13%
3. No - Chile 8%
4. War Witch - Canada 5%
5. Kon-Tiki - Norway 5%
     What I said about Documentary Feature, only more so... 6 out of 11 guessed correctly.

  Best Cinematography
1. Life of Pi 47% (WINNER)
2. Skyfall 31%
3. Lincoln 17%
4. Anna Karenina 3%
5. Django Unchained 2%
     Although I feel sorry for Skyfall's Roger Deakins, having so many nominations and still no wins, I'm glad I went with the buzz, giving me...7 out of 12 guessed correctly.

  Best Editing
1. Argo 51% (WINNER)
2. Zero Dark Thirty 29%
3. Lincoln 9%
4. Life of Pi 7%
5. Silver Linings Playbook 5%
     I expected Goldenberg to win this for Argo from the day that I saw the film in the theater... 8 out of 13 guessed correctly.

  Best Production Design
1. Anna Karenina 39%
2. Les Miserables 27%
3. Lincoln 16% (WINNER)
4. Life of Pi 15%
5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 2%
     Even if I hadn't predicted this one for Anna, I probably would have gone for Les Miserables.  Still, I certainly can't begrudge the winner... 8 out of 14 guessed correctly.

  Best Music (Original Score)
1. Life of Pi 53% (WINNER)
2. Lincoln 22%
3. Argo 12%
4. Anna Karenina 8%
5. Skyfall 6%
     I stuck with conventional wisdom pretty much wherever Pi led the buzz and that worked out to my advantage.,, 9 out of 15 guessed correctly,

  Best Music (Original Song)
1. Skyfall - "Skyfall" 67% (WINNER)
2. Les Miserables - "Suddenly" 24%
3. Ted - "Everybody Needs a Best Friend" 5%
4. Life of Pi - "Pi's Lullaby" 3%
5. Chasing Ice - "Before My Time" 1%
     This one was another no-brainer.  I said that if "Skyfall" qualified, it would be the winner way before it even qualified.  I saw no reason to jump ship at the last minute... 10 out of 16 guessed correctly.

  Best Costume Design
1. Anna Karenina 45% (WINNER)
2. Les Miserables 34%
3. Mirror Mirror 9%
4. Lincoln 9%
5. Snow White and the Huntsman 4%
     I was a little worried that the Academy would end up awarding costumer Ishioka posthumously for Mirror Mirror, but thankfully I stuck with Durrant and Anna...11 out of 17 guessed correctly.

  Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 59%
2. Les Miserables 34% (WINNER)
3. Hitchcock 7%
     It was difficult for me to care about this category when they honored these three films over at least four others that I felt were more deserving (two of which didn't even make the short list), but thankfully I went with the Best Picture nominee rather than the front runner... 12 out of 18 guessed correctly.

  Best Sound Editing
1. Life of Pi 28%
2. Zero Dark Thirty 25% (WINNER - tie)
3. Skyfall 22% (WINNER - tie)
4. Argo 17%
5. Django Unchained 7%
     In a tight three-way race, the Academy had a rare tie decision.  I had predicted Skyfall, figuring it would go home with a trophy for something other than just Song.  I say that ties are so rare that guessing either of the winners counts as right... 13 out of 19 guessed correctly.

  Best Sound Mixing
1. Les Miserables 57% (WINNER)
2. Skyfall 20%
3. Life of Pi 15%
4. Argo 4%
5. Lincoln 4%
     The innovation of live singing in a movie musical was a risky and (in most of the film) highly effective choice that was sure to win the film recognition in this arena... 14 out of 20 guessed correctly.

  Best Visual Effects
1. Life of Pi 66% (WINNER)
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 19%
3. Marvel's Avengers 9%
4. Prometheus 4%
5. Snow White and the Huntsman 2%
     As I said, I usually stuck with Pi in the techs for the most part, and this one was the most forgone conclusion of them all... 15 out of 21 guessed correctly.

  Best Animated Short
1. Paperman 50% (WINNER)
2. Adam and Dog 20%
3. Head Over Heels 16%
4. Maggie Simpson in the Longest Daycare 12%
5. Fresh Guacamole 3%
     This was a really strong crop of short films, but Paperman was clearly the most well known and publicized throughout the season as well as being arguably the most innovative animated work this year.  It had been several decades since Disney won this category, but I'm glad I didn't let that deter me from predicting their win this year...16 out of 22 guessed correctly.

  Best Documentary Short
1. Open Heart 45%
2. Inocente 25% (WINNER)
3. Mondays at Racine 19%
4. Kings Pointe 8%
5. Redemption 3%
     Not having seen these, I had to simply watch the buzz.  Although Open Heart still led at crunch time, Inocente had been surging, so I took a chance. Fortunately, it paid off...17 out of 23 guessed correctly.

  Best Live-Action Short
1. Curfew 41% (WINNER)
2. Buzkashi Boys 19%
3. Asad 18%
4. Death of a Shadow 17%
5. Henry 4%
     Unfortunately, I predicted the same sort of upset for Buzkashi Boys in this category, and it did not come to pass... 17 out of 24 guessed correctly.

     And that was it...my final score was seventeen.  It certainly wasn't my best (I think 19 right is my best tally ever, back when The Hurt Locker won for 2009), but it could have been a lot worse. If I had just stuck with the buzz, I would have only scored 16 correct.  You know its been a weird year when I did better in the Shorts than in the major categories.  Here's hoping that 2013 is an awards season that offers us just as many twists, turns, and surprises.  I know I'll see you then...
                                                                                   Froggy

Related articles: Related Articles:  Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz: Of Snubs and Triumphs (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing & Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Finishing Touch Techs (Editing & Visual Effects), Toons of Any Length (Animated Feature & Animated Short), Docs of Any Length (Documentary Feature & Documentary Short), Screenplays (Adapted & Original), Supporting Players (Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress), Actor and Actress, Foreign Films (also covering Short Live-Action), Picture and Director, Final Predictions,  "Lincoln" Perks, Best That the Summer Wields? (Beasts of the Southern Wild review),  Acting Master Classes in Private "Sessions", Didn't Quite Take "Flight", Can You "Master" Your Nature?, "Impossible"y Well Crafted, Anna Conundruma (Anna Karenina review), I Think You "Argo"ing to Love It!, Fantasy "Life of Pi"?, Promarlius Kingdom (Moonrise Kingdom and Prometheus reviews), If It Ain't "Wrecked" (Wreck-It Ralph and Paperman reviews), Elena's Brave Law (Brave reveiw), To Rome, Sugarweenie! (Frankenweenie and Searching For Sugarman reviews), The Perfect Para-Killer (Paranorman review), Bernie! On a Ledge of Misfits (Pirates! Band of Misfits reveiw), Surviving the Alps is a Rush (How To Survive a Plague review), Henry's Invisible Arbitrage (The Invisible War review), To Royal Effect (A Royal Affair review), 23? You Don't Play Like a Sequel Over 2. (Skyfall review), The Habit: A Much Expected Returning (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey review), Ted Butters Up the Polisse (Ted review),
Being Margaret's Mirror (Mirror Mirror review), The Best Huntsman's Shadow (Snow White and the Huntsman review), Merchandiser's Assemble (Avengers review)

Final 85th Oscar Winner Predictions

     This doesn't really need a preface, does it?  Cross your fingers (or webbed feet, or whatever) and check out my live tweets tonight during the ceremony.

  Best Picture: Argo
         alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
         wild card: Amour
          should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

  Best Director: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
          alternate: David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
          wild card: Michael Haneke - Amour
          should have been nominated:  Christopher Nolan - Dark Knight Returns (sorry, Mr. Affleck, you were great)

  Best Actor: um...Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
          alternate:  Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
          wild card:  Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
          should have been nominated:  Richard Gere - Arbitrage

  Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
          alternate: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
          wild card: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
          should have been nominated: Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone

  Best Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
          alternate: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
          wild card: Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
          should have been nominated: Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild

  Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
          alternate: Sally Field - Lincoln
          wild card: Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
          should have been nominated: Salma Hayek - Savages

  Best Original Screenplay: Amour
          alternate: Django Unchained
          wild card: Zero Dark Thirty
          should have been nominated: Looper

  Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
          alternate: Lincoln
          wild card: Silver Linings Playbook
          should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

  Best Animated Feature:  Wreck-It Ralph
          alternate: Frankenweenie
          wild card: Brave
          should have been nominated: A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's
        Graham Chapman

  Best Documentary Feature: Searching For Sugarman
           alternate: Gatekeepers
           wild card: 5 Broken Cameras
           should have been nominated: Queen of Versailles

  Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
           alternate: No
           wild card: War Witch
           should have been nominated: Rust and Bone

  Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
          alternate: Skyfall
          wild card: Lincoln
          should have been nominated: Beasts of the Southern Wild

  Best Editing: Argo
          alternate: Zero Dark Thirty
          wild card: Life of Pi
          should have been nominated: Cloud Atlas

  Best Production Design: Anna Karenina
           alternate: Les Miserables
           wild card: Life of Pi
           should have been nominated: Cloud Atlas

  Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
            alternate: Les Miserables
            wild card: Mirror Mirror
            should have been nominated: A Royal Affair

  Best Make-Up and Hairstyling: Les Miserables
             alternate: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
             wild card: Hitchcock
             should have been nominated: Cloud Atlas

  Best Score: Life of Pi
              alternate: Skyfall
              wild card: Lincoln
              should have been nominated: Beasts of the Southern Wild

  Best Song: Skyfall - "Skyfall"
              alternate: Les Miserables - "Suddenly"
              wild card: Ted - "Everybody Needs a Best Friend"
              should have been nominated: numerous numbers from Lawless & Django Unchained

  Best Sound Editing: Skyfall
               alternate: Life of Pi
               wild card: Argo
               should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Returns

  Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
                alternate: Skyfall
                wild card: Argo
                should have been nominated: The Impossible

  Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
                 alternate: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
                 wild card: Marvel's Avengers

  Short Film Animated: Paperman
                 alternate: Head Over Heels
                 wild card: Adam and Dog
         
  Short Film Live-Action: Buzkashi Boys
                  alternate: Curfew
                  wild card: Death of a Shadow
 
  Short Film Documentary: Innocente
                  alternate: Open Heart
                  wild card: Mondays at Racine
          

Oscar Winners Predictions & Buzz - Actor & Actress

     With just under a week left until the Academy Awards we are rapidly running out of time.  Fortunately, I'm also running out of categories to cover.  As always, the buzz appears first, with former rankings appearing in parenthesis.  I'll try to find something new to say on the second lists. Let's start with the boring race...

Best Actor
  1.(1) Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
  2.(5) Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
  3.(3) Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
  4.(4) Denzel Washington - Flight
  5.(6) Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
  Leaving the Rankings:  John Hawkes - The Sessions, Anthony Hopkins - Hitchcock, Richard Gere - Arbitrage, Bill Murray - Hyde Park On Hudson, Jean-Louis Trintignent - Amour
     I don't really have ALL that much to change here...
  1. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln...The only reason that I call this a boring race is because we've had the same front runner ALL year, and KNOWN he would be the winner since the movie premiered.  There is certainly nothing boring about his performance; it is a marvel.  Congratulations to Mr. Day-Lewis as he becomes the first man ever to win three Best Actor Oscars.  I can't begrudge you.
  2. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables...Nobody really has a serious shot at dethroning Lincoln in this category, but Jackman DOES give a transforming, probably career changing turn in this film.  Sadly, it looks like earning his first nomination will have to suffice for this year.
  3. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook...Another first time nominee whose career has probably just changed forever.  Buzz for the film has surged of late, and you never know with the Weinstein Company handling the campaign.
  4. Joaquin Phoenix - The Master...Every now and then (for reasons unknown), the Academy suddenly takes a shine to someone who has thumbed their nose at the Oscars.  Just ask Woody Allen.  Phoenix's comments left him on the outside looking in for the entire awards cycle, but there is a MINUTE chance that forgiveness might come at the last second.  Of course, you could argue that it already did when they gave him the nomination.
  5. Denzel Washington - Flight...Mr. Washington gave a GREAT performance in an okay film, and the Academy giving him his sixth nomination for it certainly indicates that they are open to the idea of awarding him with that uber-rare third win...someday.

Best Actress
  1.(1) Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
  2.(2) Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
  3.(5) Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
  4.(4) Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
  5.(6) Naomi Watts - The Impossible
  Leaving the Rankings:  Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone, Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina, Helen Mirren - Hitchcock, Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea
     This race is so wide open, I can't even believe it.  Let me explain...
  1. Emmanuelle Riva - Amour...It was several month back when I first heard the idea proposed that Lawrence and Chastain might cancel each other out, leaving room for Riva (or Wallis, it was thought at the time) to slide in and take the victory.  I scoffed, but Riva's momentum in the last few weeks has been incredible.  I'm still not SURE that it will be enough to secure a win, but it's looking more likely by the hour.
  2. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook...Of course, Riva had a LOT of ground to cover to catch the awards train that has been JLAWRENCE2012.  It is quite possible that this highly talented actress will still walk home with the gold.
  3. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty...That being said, Ms. Chastain is still in this race too, and I might be predicting her to win by Saturday.
  4. Naomi Watts - The Impossible...Ms. Watts has gotten a lot of very vocal support within the industry, but I think her buzz just got going too late.  Still, in a year where the votes are going to be all over the place anyway, anything is possible.
  5. Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild...Still might be my personal favorite of the year, but she's young and working with director Steve McQueen this year ensures she doesn't disappear after one film.  Still, the film has a lot of love.

Related Posts:   Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz: Of Snubs and Triumphs (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing & Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Finishing Touch Techs (Editing & Visual Effects), Toons of Any Length (Animated Feature & Animated Short), Docs of Any Length (Documentary Feature & Documentary Short), Screenplays (Adapted & Original), Supporting Players (Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress), "Lincoln" Perks, Best That the Summer Wields? (Beasts of the Southern Wild review), Acting Master Classes in Private "Sessions", Didn't Quite Take "Flight", Can You "Master" Your Nature?, Henry's Invisible Arbitrage (Arbitrage review), Hide Prep For Harem (Hyde Park On Hudson review), "Impossible"y Well Crafted, Anna Conundruma (Anna Karenina review), Deep Part of Safety (The Deep Blue Sea review), December Oscar Buzz & Predictions - Actor & Actress

"Lincoln" Perks

     Lights rise on the nation's sixteenth President sitting and speaking with two black soldiers.  He asks them questions in a tone that is patient, kind, and just a little paternal.  One soldier is shamelessly servile, almost pandering in a way that irritated one friend of mine, making him feel as if his race was represented as being too worshipful of Lincoln.  The other soldier, though, was hard on the president, asking him difficult questions, many that Abe was unprepared to answer without more thought.  Two white soldiers march up and seem a little dismissive of their "compatriots of color" (if you will).  Lincoln asks the new arrivals if they can recite what he said at Gettysburg and the boys try to stumble through it, but Lincoln ends up having to help them with the first few lines before sending everyone on their way.  As the soldier's walk off, the one who had given Lincoln a hard time can be heard finishing the speech, effortlessly and word for word.  It is obvious that while he continues to hold the President accountable for upholding them, the words themselves he holds in a certain reverence.  So begins Lincoln, setting the tone for all that is to follow.  It is a film that is full of big ideas, and gives you much to ponder.  It avoids becoming TOO ponderous, however, because it is also a movie with a big heart, kept under tight wraps, but leaking little golden veins of sentimentality.
     The intellectual meat of the picture (and there is a lot, questions in conundrums in ethical puzzles) must undeniably be accredited to screenwriter Tony Kushner's rather inspired script.  This is only Mr. Kushner's second screenplay (he also collaborated with Spielberg on Munich), but he was already well known as a playwright because of the two Angels in America plays (which are amazing, maybe I'll review the excellent HBO adaptation in a later article).  Here he tells a story of great men, fighting battles of great import, but without cleaning it all up to make it more palatable.  It feels more history than mythology in a way that movies about beloved historical figures rarely do.  This was a man who had to compromise and had to occasionally bend his own ethical principals in a microcosmic manner to maintain the path to his goal in the bigger picture.  Lincoln is a pensive, talky film, but one that has worthwhile things to say.
     Steven Spielberg works best when his tone is respectable but flirting with cheese.  Sometimes he flirts heavily (Raiders, ET), sometimes he's a little more subtle (Close Encounters, Saving Private Ryan) and every great once in a while he's able to keep his heart in check enough to be really, really coy about it (Schindler's List, and now Lincoln).  Spielberg is like a great conductor here.  He assembled the best orchestral team you could ask for, was given a great composition to lead them through and then weaves the sounds together like the seasoned master that he is when at his best.
     It is almost a given at this point that Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win an Oscar for Lincoln.  Loathe as I am to go along with awards that were practically bestowed months ahead of time based on "brand name" alone, I have to admit that he's one of the favored contenders in The Froggies when I get to the Best of 2012 series in a couple of months.  It's an amazing performance, in which this true master thespian completely transforms into the man he portrays.  Great attention has obviously been given to every aspect of what he does onscreen:  the accent, the posture, every movement of the muscles around his eyes.  He takes Abraham Lincoln, the most loved and hated American figure of his day, and makes him so affable and funny even among those who despise him.  At the same time you can never look at the man without seeing the weight he feels upon his shoulders and his soul.
     I admit, I am a bit biased in the following assessment.  I love Sally Field.  But I think that if I were entirely objective, I would still love her performance in this picture.  I can think of no other actress better suited for the sort of high melodrama inherent in the character of Mary Todd Lincoln.  Her Mary is a woman of such simultaneous fragility and strength that she seems almost surreal, but you absolutely believe in her.  There is this one party scene where her and Tommy Lee Jones go at it that is one of the real high lights of the film for me.
     Speaking of Mr. Jones, he is having a great year.  He may have gotten famous for playing tough guys, but it is films like No Country For Old Men, Hope Springs, and now Lincoln in which he really shines, playing tough guys who are only tough because they must be to protect their more tender, secret hearts.  I really think that his work in those three films may be his best ever for me.  This actor is proving to be like a fine wine, and he excels in roles that require wisdom and maturity.  His portrayal of Thaddeus Stevens boasts plenty of both.
     In a year of impressive ensemble pieces, Lincoln is easily among the best.  David Strathairn is marvelously officious.  James Spader makes incredibly good use of his screen time as a despicable fellow working for the good guys, partnered ably by John Hawkes.  Hal Holbrook, Jackie Earle Haley, Walton Goggins...I could go on.  I do feel that Joseph Gordon-Levitt's role as Lincoln's son was less well developed than he could have been.  Only in his scenes do I feel as if the drama gets a little less restrained.  I wouldn't call his work weak, but it is one of the film's aspects that bears the least strength.
   The production team on Lincoln did a fantastic job.  All elements are impressive to the active observer, yet far from obtrusive to the passive one.  The picture received six craft nods, and Joanna Johnston (Costume Design), Michael Kahn (Editing), John Williams (Score), Rick Carter (Production Design) & Jim Erickson (Set Decoration, also covered under the Production Design nomination) and the Sound Mixing team of Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom & Ronald Judkins all made award worthy contributions to this film.  I'm still confounded that the excellent make-up work went unrewarded.
     What really blew me away unexpectedly was the work of master cinematographer Janusz Kaminski.  I never expected a film that was so packed with scenes of deals being struck in cigar smoke filled back rooms could be the sort of visually stimulating experience that this movie was.  The use of light in Lincoln is brilliant, the use of the shadows that abound in a world where the only light comes from candles, lanterns, and the sun.  Even the aforementioned cigar smoke (as it filters through candlelight and frames the characters hazily) is used in each shot to glorious effect.  There is a dream sequence early on in the picture that may be the most beautiful imagery I have seen on film this year.  This is simply one of the most brilliantly shot films of 2012.  I should never have underestimated it so quickly.
     Which, in truth, is kind of how I feel about the whole project.  I was very, very slow to begin taking Lincoln seriously in this Oscar race.  It never cracked my top ten Best Picture contenders until it previewed to great acclaim.  Even then, it took a long time to creep up that list.  You must forgive me.  War Horse was like the unattractive love child of Shenandoah & Old Yeller by comparison to this piece.    Spielberg has come back with a true vengeance, giving us one of his best, a film that never goes in for the big cry.  Instead it bombards the mind, and then plucks gently at the heartstrings with a surgeon's pinpoint precision. 5 of 5 stars.
   
Related posts:  The Sound Hope Sparks (Hope Springs review), Oscar Winner Predictions & Buzz: Of Snubs and Triumphs (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing & Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Costume Design & Make-Up and Hairstyling), Pretty Picture Techs (Cinematography & Production Design), Finishing Touch Techs (Editing & Visual Effects)

Didn't Quite Take "Flight"

     Flight is a movie which suffers a little from over-hype.  First it was a major premiere at the New York Film Festival!  Then it was billed as Robert Zemeckis's triumphant return to live action film making!  Then it premieres and it becomes Denzel Washington's greatest role in years!  Then it releases and it becomes something of a box office hit, which should have been a no-brainer. Denzel is rarely BAD for box office and the film had a trailer that made guys think that it's a bad-ass action movie about a plane crash and women expect a heart wrenching drama in which Mr. Washington would make them laugh a little and cry a lot.  Suddenly, however, film awards commentators begin concluding left and right that this box office surge has elevated Flight (pardon me, sorry) to the level of serious Best Picture contender.  Whew!
     Fortunately, I think that I was able to keep my own expectations in check.  I really expected it to be a slightly sappy drama with a brief, extremely slick and well put together action sequence that would work well as a vehicle for Mr. Washington to make people laugh a little, and cry a lot, and maybe get some awards attention.  And that is pretty much what I got.  Is it his BEST work in years?  Maybe, but not in any hands down kind of way.  I thought that his work in Book of Eli was magnificent.  Someone trains a blind man to memorize the entire Bible and fight his way across a continent.  How many actors can sell that kind of premise?
     There is also some great supporting work being done here, particularly by John Goodman (who is so hot right now, someone give him that stand out role to get a Best Supporting nod under his belt already) who continues to illustrate why he is one of America's greatest character actors in a role that probably has less than ten minutes of screen time.  Kelly Reilly gives an engaging turn as Nicole, the young woman battling similar demons who becomes Whip (Washington)'s love interest.
     The thing that keeps Flight from being elevated (again, sorry, can't help it) above a mere actors' vehicle is ironically the thing that (outside of Mr. Washington's performance) the film is receiving the greatest accolades for:  John Gatins script.  It's not a BAD script, but it plays sort of like a TV movie of the week, where an estranged husband and father battles addictions.  At times, it verges on melodrama.  Especially when Whip invades his family's home.  And it tackles a "serious issue", but in a way that is fairly easy and sanitized compared to the life paths of most "addicts" that I have known.  Whip is presented his "rock bottom" in a courtroom on a shiny silver platter.  In real life, that experience is usually a lot more messy.
      Mr. Zemeckis should be happy with his film overall, however.  He indeed demonstrated that as a director he could still pull powerful performances out of live actors.  He did not create the kind of wholly original take on the world that he did in films like Forrest Gump, Back To The Future, and Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, but maybe that will be next time out.
     Technically, the film is sound.  The special effects sequence is brief, but seamless.  Ditto for the most impressive work done by the sound department.  This is also a pretty well shot picture, one of cinematographer Don Burgess's stronger efforts.
     Flight is a GOOD film but far from a great one.  Maybe you like shameless "message movies" more than I do, but a Best Picture nod for this flick would have been akin to the slot that was taken by The Blind Side a few years back.  That being said, Denzel is every bit as good in this as Sandy was in that, so maybe you should check it out after all.  3 1/2 of 5 stars.

Of Snubs and Triumphs

     Okay, so the Academy's nomination announcements were far more shocking than usual.  Best Director alone almost gave me a heart attack.  Forgive me for not posting some immediate reaction, but it took me a minute to get my head back on straight.  I decided to attack these nominations in the most traditional manner, regardless of what an unconventional race it has turned into.   So...without further ado, here are thirteen winners, seventeen losers, and one who did  both.  Let's get hoppin...

13 Big Winners

  13.  Kon-Tiki - This Norwegian adventure flick was ranked about eighth in buzz out of the nine films on the Academy's Foreign Language Film short list.  It still doesn't have a chance in hell of beating Amour, but the nomination is a triumph in itself.
  12. The Sound Team from Argo - The film was considered an outside shot for either sound category, and it managed to score nods in both.  The movie needed SOME good news this week.
  11. Pirates!  Band of Misfits - This Aardman studios production managed to squeeze out both Rise of the Guardians and all four G-Kids movies to grab the fifth slot in Animated Feature.  Maybe AMPAS was trying to correct themselves for snubbing the far better Aardman film Arthur Christmas in this category last year.
  10. 5 Broken Cameras - This was one of the lowest profile documentaries still eligible for a nod.  Many a documentary that flies below everyone's radar up to the day of nominations turns around and wins it all, so who knows.
  9. The Snow White Story - Not only did Mirror Mirror grab a half expected nod in Costume Design, but Snow White and the Huntsman snagged quite unanticipated recognition in both Costume and Visual Effects.  Gooo Snow!
  8. Jackie Weaver - It's not like she unseated some presumed lock to get her nomination, but she was far from the most buzzed about contender.  Still, I had a sneaking suspicion that this could be a possibility, leading me to place her in my Best Supporting Actress Wild Card slot.  This is the Australian actress,s second nomination, having come out of nowhere the first time for Animal Kingdom.
  7. Anna Karenina - Mixed critical reception may have killed this movie's Best Picture hopes early on in the game, but it still managed to pull off four tech nods, which should still be enough to at least give DVD returns an "Oscar boost".
  6. John Gatins - The Flight scripter managed to squeeze out a nod ahead of more buzzed about (and, in my opinion, stronger) scripts for The Master and Looper.
  5. The Silver Linings Playbook - Everyone expected this film to do well with Picture and Screenplay nods in addition at least a couple of acting nominations, but FOUR acting nominations plus Director and Editing were real wish fulfillment for the picture's fans, making it one of the presumed Best Picture front runners.
  4. Joachin Phoenix - Everyone was holding their breath to see if the Academy would hold Phoenix's big mouth against him and leave him out of the Best Actor race this year.  Thank goodness they didn't, because his performance was definitely one of 2012's best.  His comments about the awards race HAVE probably dashed any hopes he had of WINNING, but at least he's (mostly) been forgiven.
  3. Amour - It's been a long time since a Foreign Language Film broke into the Best Picture race, but pundits have been playing with the idea that director Haneke's latest would do just that, and it did.  Not only that, it secured nods for Director, Screenplay, Actress, and Foreign Language Film.
  2. Steven Spielberg and Lincoln - With Affleck and Bigelow both out of the running, it would seem that Spielberg's win for Director (and, most likely, the film's for Picture) are all but assured.  However, it is still early, and Life of Pi is looking stronger all the time.
  1. Benh Zeitlen and Beasts of the Southern Wild - After the snubs at SAG and the Globes, every prognosticator and their brother began to slowly but surely eliminate Beasts from ANY consideration at the Oscars this year.  Not only did it pull out the Picture, Actress, and Screenplay nods that I and a few other true believers never stopped predicting, but it pulled out a Best Directing nomination that even I had totally given up on.  I have never been happier to get one of my predictions WRONG!  Granted, I would have loved to have seen the film receive much deserved recognition in Score and Cinematography, but I'll take what I can get in the year of...

Seventeen (mostly) Regrettable Losers
  17.  A bevy of Best Supporting Actress Hopefuls - The fifth slot in this race was WIDE open, but by my tabulations, at least five other ladies were ahead of Ms. Weaver in buzz.  They were...Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy, Ann Dowd - Compliance, Samantha
Barks - Les Miserables, and Judi Dench - Skyfall.  While I'm sure none of these ladies were counting on getting into this highly competitive race, they still have my condolences.
  16. Hitchcock - No one was expecting this movie to be an awards juggernaut at this point, but I'm sure they were hoping for SOMETHING beyond Make-Up and Hairstyling.
  15. Nepotism - Bryce Dallas Howard (offspring of Ron) failed to secure a Best Live Action Short nod for her shortlisted piece:  When You Find Me.
  14. The Master - I suppose it could have been a lot worse (Phoenix did get his actor nod), and we all suspected that a picture nod was out.  Still, there were a host of technical nods (score, costume, production design, etc.) that this meticulously made film missed out on.
  13. Cloud Atlas - We all knew that above the line nods were probably out of the question, but nothing?  This was one of the most ambitious films of the year, and it was technically sound no matter what else you thought about it.
  12. Sharen Davis - It must hurt to have your worthy costuming work on Django Unchained passed over for the overly showy outfits of Mirror Mirror.  If your name was erroneously leaked to the press as a nominee, it must be even worse.
  11. Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson's little mini-masterpiece may have landed a screenplay nod, but I'm sure they were hoping for a little more (like the Best Picture nod they must have JUST missed).
  10. Rian Johnson - Looper might have been the best screenplay of the year period, and this young auteur lost a nod to Flight?
  9. Marion Cotillard - She is rapidly becoming one of those actresses that everyone predicts every year, who never gets nominated.  Rust and Bone did not  break this trend.
  8. The Songs of Brave - With Skyfall and Les Miserables in the hunt, no one was expecting a win here, but everyone was expecting an Original Song nod for Pixar.  Didn't happen.
  7. The Intouchables - This was supposed to be Amour's top competition in Foreign Language Film:  top U.S. and world box office, backed by the Weinsteins...not to be.
  6. G-Kids - This Indie animation distributor has managed to slip into the Animated Feature race at the last second for two years running.  That streak is now broken as From Up On Poppy Hill, The Painting, The Rabbi's Cat, and Zarafa all failed to make the cut.
  5. Leonardo DiCaprio - Like Cotillard, he is turning into the perpetual bridesmaid of the Oscars.  Still, they had to go with five guys who are already former winners over Leo?
  4. Katherine Bigelow - Yeah, she just won Best Director last time out, but she has won the MOST accolades from critics groups and didn't even get a nomination here.
  3. John Hawkes - So, everybody knew that we had six strong contenders for Best Actor and only five slots.  However, if there was one performance (outside of Day-Lewis in Lincoln) that everyone thought was a lock in the category, it was John Hawkes in The Sessions.  It just goes to show:  nobody knows anything.
  2. The Dark Knight Rises - This is one of the year's best films.  We had all accepted the fact that it was probably out of the running for anything above  the line due to its subject matter and unfortunate connection to the Aurora shooting, but come on Academy!  No tech nods?  A TOTAL shut out?  Someday we will look back and laugh at Oscar on this one, I promise you.
  1. Ben Affleck - I don't even know what to say.  I was still predicting Mr. Affleck to WIN best director this year.  Sorry, Ben, better luck next time.

And One That Did Both
  The Weinstein Company - WIN:  Two Best Picture slots and half the Acting nominations.
                                           LOSE:  Documentary, Foreign Language, Song (for Lawless), and most of the tech awards.

     Stay tuned for analysis and handicapping of all the major categories starting soon and running right up to the big day.
                                                                                       Froggy

Related Posts:  Nov/Dec Oscar Buzz and Predictions: It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (preview), Musical Techs (Score and Song), Noisy Techs (Sound Editing and Sound Mixing), Pretty People Techs (Hairstyling and Make-up & Costume), Pretty Picture Techs (Production Design and Cinematography), Finishing Touch Techs, Toons of Any Length (Animated Short and Animated Feature), Docs of Any Length (Documentary Feature and Documentary Short), Screenplays (Adapted and Original), Supporting Performances, Actor and Actress, Foreign Films (and Live Action Shorts), Conclusion (Picture and Director), I Think You "Argo"ing to Love It!, Bernie! On a Ledge of Misfits (Pirates! Band of Misfits review), Being Margaret's Mirror (Mirror Mirror review), The Best Huntsman's Shadow (Snow White and the Huntsman and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel reviews), Can You "Master" Your Nature?, Twist Until You Are Loopey! (Looper review), Best That the Summer Wields (Beasts of the Southern Wild review),
23? You Don't Play Like a Sequel Over 2! (Skyfall review), Cloudy Connections (Cloud Atlas review),
Promarlius Kingdom (Moonrise Kingdom review), Elena's Brave Law (Brave and Lawless reviews), Acting Master Classes in Private "Sessions", The Dark Knight Transcends, Final Pre-Nomination Oscar Predictions

Final Pre-Nomination Oscar Predictions

     With the announcement of this year's Academy Award nominations less than 24 hours away, here is my final word on the matter.  For each category, I list my ACTUAL predictions first, followed by an Alternate (the film most likely to be nominated in place of one of my picks), a Wild Card pick (something that the buzz does not support at all, but I feel COULD slide in as a surprise nod), and For Your Consideration pick (something with NO chance at being nominated, but that I feel deserves it more than some of the ones that will).  Let's begin:


Best Picture
     The trick here is figuring out what the buzz is telling us about how MANY nominees we will have in the mix.  I have inserted breaks in the top ten wherever the buzz indicates a possible cut-off exists.
  1. Argo
  2. Lincoln
  3. Zero Dark Thirty
  4. Les Miserables
  5. Life of Pi
  6. Silver Linings Playbook
  7. Django Unchained
  8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  9. Moonrise Kingdom
  10. Amour
   Alternate: Skyfall
  Wild Card: The Intouchables
  For Your Consideration: The Sound of My Voice

Best Director
  1. Ben Affleck - Argo
  2. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
  3. Katherine Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
  4. Ang Lee - Life of Pi
  5. David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
   Alternate: Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
  Wild Card: Michael Haneke - Amour
  For Your Consideration - Tom Tykwer & the Wachowskis - Cloud Atlas

Best Actor
  1.  Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
  2.  John Hawkes - The Sessions
  3.  Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
  4.  Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
  5.  Denzel Washington - Flight
  Alternate: Joachin Phoenix - The Master
  Wild Card: Jamie Foxx - Django Unchained
  For Your Consideration: Suraj Sharma - Life of Pi, Joseph Gordon-Levitt - Looper

Best Actress
  1.  Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
  2.  Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
  3.  Naomi Watts - The Impossible
  4.  Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
  5.  Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
  Alternate: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
  Wild Card: Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea
  For Your Consideration:  Anne Hathaway - The Dark Knight Rises

Best Supporting Actor
  1. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
  2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
  3. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
  4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
  5. Alan Arkin - Argo
   Alternate:  Matthew MacConaughey - Magic Mike
  Wild Card: Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
  For Your Consideration:  Mikkel Boe Folsgaard - A Royal Affair

Best Supporting Actress
  1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
  2. Sally Field - Lincoln
  3. Helen Hunt - Sessions
  4. Amy Adams - The Master
  5. Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
  Alternate: Ann Dowd - Compliance
  Wild Card: Jackie Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
  For Your Consideration: Doona Bae - Cloud Atlas

Best Original Screenplay
  1. Django Unchained
  2. Moonrise Kingdom
  3. The Master
  4. Zero Dark Thirty
  5. Looper
  Alternate: Flight
  Wild Card: Middle of Nowhere
  For Your Consideration: The Cabin in the Woods


Best Adapted Screenplay
  1. Lincoln
  2. Argo
  3. Silver Linings Playbook
  4. Life of Pi
  5. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  Alternate: Perks of Being a Wallflower
  Wild Card: The Sessions
  For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas

Best Animated Feature
  1. Frankenweenie
  2. Paranorman
  3. Brave
  4. The Painting
  5. Wreck-It Ralph
  Alternate: Rise of the Guardians
  Wild Card: The Rabbi's Cat
  For Your Consideration: A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman

Best Foreign Language Film
  1. Amour (Austria)
  2. The Intouchables (France)
  3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)
  4. War Witch (Canada)
  5. No (Chile)
  Alternate: Beyond the Hills (Romania)
  Wild Card: Kon-Tiki (Norway)
  For Your Consideration: Elena (Russia)

Best Documentary
  1. Searching For Sugar Man
  2. How To Survive a Plague
  3. The Imposter
  4. The Gatekeepers
  5. The House I Live In
  Alternate: The Invisible War
  Wild Card: This Is Not a Film
  For Your Consideration: Marley

Best Cinematography
  1. Life of Pi
  2. Skyfall
  3. Lincoln
  4. Django Unchained
  5. Les Miserables
  Alternate:  The Master
  Wild Card: Beasts of the Southern Wild
  For Your Consideration: The Dark Knight Rises


Best Costume
  1. Anna Karenina
  2. Les Miserables
  3. Lincoln
  4. Django Unchained
  5. Cloud Atlas
  Alternate: Mirror Mirror
  Wild Card: A Royal Affair
  For Your Consideration: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Editing
  1. Argo
  2. Zero Dark Thirty
  3. Lincoln
  4. Life of Pi
  5. Les Miserables
  Alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
  Wild Card: Skyfall
  For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
  1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  2. Lincoln
  3. Les Miserables
  Alternate: Hitchcock
  Wild Card: Looper
  For Your Consideration: Cloud Atlas

Best Music (Original Score)
  1. Lincoln
  2. Life of Pi
  3. The Master
  4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  5. Argo
  Alternate: Cloud Atlas
  Wild Card: Zero Dark Thirty
  For Your Consideration: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Music (Original Song)
  1. Les Miserables - Suddenly
  2. Skyfall - Skyfall
  3. Brave - Learn Me Right
  4. Django Unchained - Ancora Qui
  5. Life of Pi - Pi's Lullaby
  Alternate: Paul Williams Is Still Alive - Still Alive
  Wild Card: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Song of the Lonely Mountain, Frankenweenie - Strange Love
  For Your Consideration: Any of the excellent disqualified work from Lawless

Best Production Design
  1. Les Miserables
  2. Anna Karenina
  3. Lincoln
  4.The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  5. Life of Pi
  Alternate: Cloud Atlas
  Wild Card: Argo
  For Your Consideration: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Sound Editing
  1. Zero Dark Thirty
  2. Skyfall
  3. The Dark Knight Rises
  4. The Avengers
  5. Life of Pi
  Alternate: Lincoln
  Wild Card: The Impossible
   For Your Consideration: The Cabin In the Woods

Best Sound Mixing
  1. Les Miserables
  2. Zero Dark Thirty
  3. Skyfall
  4. Life of Pi
  5. The Dark Knight Rises
  Alternate: Lincoln
  Wild Card: The Impossible
   For Your Consideration:  The Grey


Best Visual Effects
  1. Life of Pi
  2. Cloud Atlas
  3. The Avengers
  4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  5. The Dark Knight Rises
  Alternate:  Prometheus
  Wild Card:  Skyfall
   For Your Consideration:  The Cabin In the Woods


Best Animated Short
  1. Paperman
  2. The Eagleman Stag
  3. Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare
  4. Adam and Dog
  5. Combustible
  Alternate: Dripped
  Wild Card: Tram
 

Best Documentary Short
  1. The Education of Mohammed Hussein
  2. Open Heart
  3. Mondays at Racine
  4. Innocente
  5. Kings Point
   Alternate: Redemption
  Wild Card: Paraiso

Best Live Action Short
  1. Death of a Shadow
  2. Curfew
  3. When You Find Me
  4. 9 Meter
  5. When You Find Me
  Alternate: Asad
  Wild Card: The Night Shift Belongs To The Stars
 
     And in a few hours it will all be over.  I ran short of time to post the buzz list final tallies, so I'll work them into my analysis after they are announced tomorrow.  I have butterflies...


Related Posts:  coming soon (I ran out of time)